Power Sweep Pro Selections
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Green Bay over TAMPA BAY - These teams split the series SU LY but Tampa
Bay won both games ATS. In the 2 games Green Bay had a combined 31-27 FD
edge & 674-447 yd edge. Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS the last 7 in this matchup. QB
Brett Favre has had a another solid year throwing for 2540 yds (64%) & a
19-7 ratio. Tampa’s defense has allowed 1762 passing (51%) & has a 4-21
ratio. Tampa QB Brad Johnson is having a decent year throwing for 2110 yds
(62%) with a 14-5 ratio. The Packer defense has allowed 2132 yds passing
(51%) passing with a 13-18 ratio. Green Bay does hold the edge in that they
have a better rushing game than the Bucs do this year as they have earned
120 ypg rushing (4.3 ypc) mainly behind Ahman Green. Tampa has 92 ypg (3.2)
rushing on a platoon system of Mike Alstott, Michael Pittman & Aaron
Stecker. The only times that the Bucs have rushed for over 100 yds in a
game they were facing Cincy, Cleveland & Minnesota. This is going to be a
hard fought game that will help determine home field advantage & we side
with Brett Favre working his magic for the road win. FORECAST: Green Bay 20
TAMPA BAY 13
3* Jacksonville over DALLAS - The last time these teams played each other
was in 2000 with the Jaguars winning 23-17 as 3 pt HD’s in OT. This is the
Jaguars 1st game TY on artificial turf & they are 7-1 ATS on turf the last
3 yrs. They are also 4-9-1 ATS on the road vs NFC teams the last 14 games.
Dallas is 5-11-2 ATS & 6-12 O/U at home vs AFC teams. Jacksonville has been
outFD’d on avg 26-17 & outgained 369-302 but boasts a combined 71-56 pt
total & a 2-1 SU & ATS record vs NFC teams. Dallas has been outFD’d on avg
17-12 & outgained 299-247 & has been outscored 52-34 with a 1-2 SU & ATS
record against AFC teams. The Cowboys have their yearly Turkey Day game on
deck & they have gone 1-5 SU & ATS the last 6 yrs prior to that game.
Jacksonville is bringing their version of the triplets in with Mark
Brunell, Jimmy Smith & Fred Taylor who should feast on a Cowboys team who
might be looking ahead to Thanksgiving when they play host to the rival
Redskins. FORECAST: Jacksonville 24 DALLAS 17
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* MIAMI over San Diego - This is a meeting of run first, pass second &
defend always teams. Miami ranks 9th rushing, 21st passing with the 6th
overall defense. San Diego is 6th rushing, 24th passing & 25th in defense.
The last time they met was in 2000 when Miami won 17-7 as 5 pt AF’s with
the Chargers having a 19-15 FD edge but 4 int’s by Ryan Leaf did them in.
HC Marty Schottenheimer knows how to get his team ready for the road as he
is 9-1 ATS doing so. Miami is 17-3 ATS against non-division AFC teams.
Miami’s defense at home is allowing 69 ypg rushing (3.2) & 191 ypg passing
(51%) with a 6-4 ratio. San Diego on the road is allowing 72 ypg rush (3.6)
but 311 ypg passing (68%) with a road ratio of 10-5. QB Drew Brees has
impressed us with his ability to perform under pressure TY but against a
Miami team that is 10-2-1 ATS the last 13 at home and has its confidence
back. We side with the Dolphins. FORECAST: MIAMI 20 San Diego 7
2* Cleveland (+) over NEW ORLEANS - The last time these 2 teams met was in
1999 when the Browns got their 1st win as an expansion team beating the
Saints 21-16 as 9 pt AD’s on a Tim Couch Hail Mary pass. The Saints had a
25-9 FD edge & a 351-243 yds edge but had 5 TO’s in the game that would
ultimately cost Mike Ditka his job. Cleveland is 3-7 ATS vs NFC teams & 1-5
ATS vs them on the road. The Saints are 2-7-2 ATS at home vs AFC teams. The
Saints at home have been outFD’d 24-20 & outgained 396-361 while outscoring
foes 34-28. The Browns on the road have outFD’d opponents 18-17 & outgained
them 311-303 on avg while breaking even 20-20 in scoring. Deuce McAllister
sprained his right ankle LW & his status is unknown. The Saints have a huge
game at home next week vs Tampa Bay which could go a long way towards
determining home field advantage in the playoffs so look ahead may be a
problem. An outright upset would not surprise us. FORECAST: Cleveland 27
(+) NEW ORLEANS 28
OTHER GAMES:
NEW ENGLAND 27 Minnesota 20 - This is NE’s 1st home game in a month & they
should be happy to be back at Gillette Stadium. They played last Sunday
Night & those results are unavailable. The Patriots are 4-12 ATS as HF’s
the last 16 & are 3-9 ATS & 3-9 O/U as HF’s vs NFC teams. The Vikings are
4-9-1 ATS on the road vs AFC teams since 1999. They are 4-13 ATS on the
road & 2-7 ATS away on grass. The Patriots defense at home has allowed an
avg 21 FD’s & 321 yds while the team has been outscored an avg of 26-24.
The Vikings’ defense has allowed an avg 21 FD’s & 400 ypg while they have
been outscored by an avg of 33-19. The Vikings are 1-7 ATS on the road
after a home win. This starts a much easier part of the schedule for the
Patriots who are in the middle of playing 5 games in a 26 day span. After
winning at least 2 of the 3 road games they get 4 of the next 6 games at
home & they should capitalize on that here.
Tennessee 20 BALTIMORE 17 - This is the Titans last stop on its tour of old
AFC Central foes & the road team is 6-2 ATS in this series with the SU
winner being 11-2 ATS. The dog is 7-2 ATS in this series losing the last 2.
Baltimore is 17-6-2 ATS at home the last 25 games. Tennessee is 3-10-1 ATS
in the favorite role since 2000. LY Baltimore won 26-7 as 3’ pt HF with
23-9 FD edge & a 460-185 yd edge. RB Eddie George has been criticized TY
for slowing down & in the 1st 5 games he was avg 44 ypg rushing (2.7 ypc).
In the last 5 games he has avg’d 96 yds (3.7). A lot of that success has to
do with the OL which avg 6-4 & 307 & have started all 10 games together. In
the first 5 games they allowed 11 sacks & over the next 5 just 3. The
Ravens defense on the other hand hasn’t had the same continuity having to
use 3 different players to substitute for LB Ray Lewis & although he
returned LW he was not the Ray Lewis of old. Over the last 6 games the
defense has allowed 118 ypg rushing (4.0) compared to the 4 games with him
when they allowed 94 ypg rush (2.9 ypc). Tennessee has the better OL here
but the impact of Ray Lewis in a 2nd straight game could keep it close.
Atlanta 23 CAROLINA 20 - In the first meeting TY Atlanta won 30-0 as a 4 pt
HF after knocking out #2 QB Chris Weinke with a concussion forcing rookie
QB Randy Fasani to step in. The Falcons finished with a 25-12 FD edge & a
393-205 yd edge making them 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in this series with 10 of
the last 12 games going Under the total. Atlanta is 6-0-2 ATS on grass the
last 8 and is 12-3-2 as a division favorite since 1997. Carolina is 8-3-1
ATS as a HD & 18-7-1 ATS in a division home game since their inception. The
Panthers have lost 22 of their last 25 games of those losses 11 times the
Panthers were winning in the 4Q & 10 times the Panthers had the lead in the
final 5 minutes. They are 9-5-1 ATS as a dog the last 15 SU losses. The
Panthers defense has been hit hard by suspensions & injuries & may be
without DE Julius Peppers who with 11 sacks had a legitimate shot at
earning a Pro Bowl berth as a rookie. We have had success backing the
Panthers in the past but see this one around the number.
CHICAGO 17 Detroit 10 - Chicago played St Louis LW on Monday Night & the
results of that game & the status of the Bears QB’s are unknown. In the 1st
meeting TY Detroit defeated Chicago as 3 pt HD’s in OT 23-20. The Lions
held a 23-17 FD edge & 362-224 yd edge as the dog moved to 6-1 ATS the last
7 in the series. The Bears are 5-9 ATS hosting the Lions & but the Lions
are 1-4 ATS on the road TY. The Lions on the road have been outFD’d 23-17
on avg & outgained 404-275 while losing by a 35-17 margin. The Bears at
home have been outFD’d 20-19 & outgained 365-332 on avg while losing by a
27-23 margin. This is a tough game to call without knowing the health of
the Bears QB’s but they have taken Philadelphia & New England to the wire &
after a Monday Night against the Rams should enjoy the step down in
competition at home.
Buffalo 34 NY JETS 30 - These teams opened the season vs each other with
the Jets winning 37-34 as a 3 pt AF in OT on a 96 yd KR for a TD by Chad
Morton. Buffalo had a 26-18 FD edge & had a 384-266 yd edge. At halftime
Buffalo had 17-7 FD & a 200-92 yd edges. The Jets are 7-2 ATS in this
series & Buffalo is 4-15 in division games. The Jets defense has come on
strong the last 4 weeks especially in run defense as in the first 6 games
they were allowing 176 ypg rushing (5.4) & since then they have allowed 73
ypg rushing (3.8) a drop of 103 ypg which is impressive considering the avg
NFL team rushes for 113 yds (4.2). The star attraction though will be QB
Chad Pennington who has thrown for 1401 yds (75%) with a 10-3 ratio as a
starter dueling with QB Drew Bledsoe 3027 yps passing (64%) with a 18-7
ratio. We side with the road team in a high scoring affair due to the
Bledsoe factor.
PITTSBURGH 23 Cincinnati 16 - The 1st meeting between these 2 teams saw
Pittsburgh defeat Cincy 34-7 as 6 pt AF’s. The Steelers had a 21-18 FD edge
but a 408-268 yd edge with 211 yds rushing (6.0 ypc). The Steelers are
20-10-1 ATS since 1994 as a division HF. They are 13-7-1 ATS as a HF of 7
or more. The Bengals are 8-22 as an AD dog vs AFC teams & as an AD of less
than 12 pts vs AFC teams with a winning SU record they are 2-19 ATS since
1990 with one of the wins being against the Steelers. The Bengals have
allowed 27 pts in 7 of their last 10 games. LW QB Tommy Maddox went off the
field on a stretcher & his status is unknown. Maddox had thrown for 1482
yds (62%) with a 12-9 ratio as a starter TY. Bengals QB Jon Kitna continues
to be hot with 986 yds (69%) with a 9-3 ratio the last 4 weeks & a QB
rating of 108. The Steelers should win but we like the generous points.
Kansas City 24 SEATTLE 19 - Kansas City is 17-5 SU & 15-7 ATS in this
series winning 5 of the last 7. Seattle won 21-18 at home LY as a 3.5 pt HF
with a 20-18 FD edge & a 389-308 yd edge but needed to recover a Chiefs
onside kick to secure the SU win. The Chiefs are 4-8 ATS as an AF since
‘98. This will be the only game on turf for the Chiefs TY & they are 2-6
ATS on it since 1998. Seattle is 1-5-1 ATS at home vs grass teams the last
7. RB Priest Holmes has rushed for 1244 yds (5.4) with 15 rushing TD’s TY
behind an OL that has started all 10 games together & avg’s 6-4 & 309. The
Seattle front 4 & top backup DT Rocky Bernard avg 6-3 & 294 with a combined
38 starts. A more pressing problem is that all 3 of the starting LB’s for
the Seahawks are injured (although Anthony Simmons could return) & the
current starting LB’s have 12 starts combined between them. The Seahawks
defense is #32 in rush defense allowing 170 ypg rushing (5.1) & could be in
for a long day here.
Oakland 31 ARIZONA 10 - Oakland is coming off B2B prime time appearances &
the Sunday Night results are unavailable as we went to press. Oakland is
9-2 ATS vs NFC teams (not including Seattle) on the road. Arizona is 1-9 SU
& 2-7-1 ATS when hosting current AFC teams. The Cardinals are 6-14 as a HD
since 1998. At home TY the Cardinals have been on avg outFD’d 19-17 &
outgained 343-302 & outscored by an 18-12 margin. They outgained their
opponents only once TY at home. The Raiders on the road TY have basically
spilt the FD’s an avg 23-22 but have outgained their foes an avg 423-347.
They outgained all their opponents on the road & in 7 of the last 8 games
prior to LW Rich Gannon has thrown for over 330 yds. The Cardinals defense
has been allowing 246 ypg passing (64%) with a 17-13 ratio. LW the
Cardinals were outFD’d 26-15 & outgained 463-248 against a team led by a QB
who had broken his ankle on the 3rd play of the game & the potent Raider
offense should do the same here.
St Louis at WASHINGTON - The Rams were on Monday Night football LW so those
results are unavailable at this time. QB Marc Bulger has thrown for 1149
yds (67 %) with a 10-3 ratio with a QB rating of 107.4. Bulger’s 5 starts
were vs teams with defenses ranked 21st or worst & the Bears were ranked
27th going into Monday. The Redskins #10 defense has allowed 210 ypg
passing with a 3-4 ratio & 11 sacks the last 5. The Rams are 3-10 ATS on
grass the L3Y while WAS is 2-9 ATS when hosting a turf team. Depending on
how his hand feels & how practice goes Kurt Warner may get the start here
in the 1st of a 3 game road trip. WAS returns home after a long 3 game road
trip & have a big rivalry game against Dallas up next while the Rams have
to travel to Philadelphia & KC next. This is a tough game to call right now
without knowing the Rams QB status, Marshall Faulk’s status, the weather,
the line & the results on Monday so we will pass for right now.
NY Giants 24 HOUSTON 21 - The Giants WR corps has taken some serious blows
TY with Ike Hilliard & Tim Carter out for the year & Ron Dixon’s status
doubtful for this game due to a knee sprain. They have been forced to
convert RB Sean Bennett to WR and signing Herman Moore and Tony Simmons for
depth. The defense is feeling the loss of DT Keith Hamilton as in the 4
games since he went out for the year they have given up an avg 177 yds
rushing (6.7). The Texans offense is gaining 101 ypg rushing (3.2) at home
& the defense is currently ranked a very respectable #12. The Giants are
9-5 ATS as an AF but with the WR injuries HC Jim Fassel may decide to run
the Thunder & Lightning combination of Tiki Barber & Ron Dayne which will
help keep his team healthy & Houston within the points.
Indianapolis at DENVER - Indy won at home LY 29-10 as a 2 pt HF with a
22-17 FD edge & a 335-219 yd edge. Neither has done well in prime time TY
as Indy is 0-2 ATS & Denver is 0-3 ATS. Both teams do have division road
games on deck & Brian Griese went out LW with a knee injury against Seattle
& his status is unknown. This Sunday Night ESPN play is available on Sunday
morning after 11:00 am EST on Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline at
1-900-903-9467 or at www.ncsports.com at the NCStore for $9.
Philadelphia st SAN FRANCISCO - LY the 49ers won 13-3 as a 2’ point HF with
a Donovan McNabb interception sealing the game. Donovan McNabb will not be
starting tonight though as he broke his ankle & is out the rest of the
regular season. Who Will We Choose? Call For Our Monday Night Magic Play!