KEY SELECTIONS:
3* SEC Championship - Arkansas (+) over Georgia - This is Georgia’s first
trip to the SEC Championship game, and a chance to win their first SEC
Title since 1982. UGA should have a huge home advantage here as they sold
out their allotment immediately. UA is back in the title game for the first
time since 1995, and the first time ever under Houston Nutt. Danny Ford’s
Hogs lost 34-3 to Florida in 1995 as 24’ pt dogs, but were hampered when
they lost their 1000 yd rusher Madre Hill in the first series of the game.
Both teams have played well on the road this year with UGA 4-1 SU & ATS,
and UA 3-1 SU & ATS. UGA is 4-1 ATS as an AF this year, and 12-4 ATS as an
AF since 1997. UA is 7-4 ATS as an AD under Nutt and 2-0 this year. UA took
Tenn to 3 OT’s as a DD dog before finally succumbing in a 38-41 SU loss but
the ATS win. UGA is 6-10 ATS as a DD fav the L/16. UA RB Fred Talley has
become the first UA player since Hill to rush for 1000 yds and has 1035 yds
(6.2). This is especially impressive because it has been tough to get the
ball away from #2 rusher QB Matt Jones who has 588 yds rush (5.2). Jones
has only avg 118 ypg (52%) with a 15-6 ratio. LW he struggled most of the
game and had only completed 2 of 13 for 46 yds before completing 2 crucial
long passes on the game winning drive. Overall, the Hogs are the top
rushing team in the SEC avg 243 ypg (5.1). UA ranks #39 in our pass eff def
rankings allowing 130 ypg (55%) with a 15-19 ratio and have excellent CB’s.
The Hogs are #2 in the NCAA in TO margin at +21. Georgia needed a miracle
4th down TD pass at Aub for a 3 pt win vs a similar SEC West team. UGA QB
David Greene is avg 217 ypg (57%) with a 21-9 ratio. UGA RB Musa Smith
became the Dawgs’ first 1000 yd rusher since Garrison Hearst in 1992 LW and
has 1073 yds (4.9). UGA has suffered inj’s to their top WR’s with #1 WR
Terrence Edwards (49 rec, 17.4), #2 WR Fred Gibson (36 rec, 18.1), and #4
receiver Damien Gary (27 rec, 9.4) all missing time. Edwards returned LW vs
GT after missing the Aub game and WR /PR Damien Gary could return for this
game after missing the L/4. UGA’s defense is one of the top in the SEC in
sacks with 35, and UA’s OL has surprisingly allowed 26 sks in 238 pass
att’s (11%). UGA has only allowed 118 ypg rush (3.2). UGA has advantages on
both sides of the ball with our #6 off (UA #45), and our #18 def (UA #29).
UGA also has the special teams advantage (#5 vs #42). UGA could be a bit
distracted by the Miami/VT game which is earlier in the day as a Miami loss
could give #3 Georgia a chance at the Fiesta Bowl. The Dawgs were able to
keep their focus LW as they annihilated rival GT 51-7 outgaining them
552-293. UA is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS vs ranked teams this year including an
outright upset of Aub on the road as 5’ pt dogs, and LW’s last minute TD vs
LSU to earn them a spot in this bowl. UGA has been lucky is some respects
this year as they narrowly escaped Clemson in the opener, then came from
behind to win at Bama, faced Tenn without QB Casey Clausen, and won with a
desperation 4th down TD pass vs Aub to get to this game. The Hogs have been
good to us and we especially like them as a dog as they are 7-2 ATS in that
role the L/2 years with 3 outright upsets. FORECAST: Arkansas (+) 20
Georgia 23
3* Virginia Tech over MIAMI, FL - Miami is 2-5 SU and ATS the L/7Y vs VT.
VT has 3 outright upsets in this series over the L/7 years. LY we used VT
as our 4* Top Weekly Late Phone Play and our Underdog POW in Power Sweep,
the Hokies almost delivered another outright upset as Miami squeaked by
26-24 as 14 pt AF’s (see Past History). Miami is 14-9 as a HF since 1998,
but just 1-3 ATS this year. VT is 3-1 ATS as an AD since 1998. The
Hurricanes are 8-2 ATS the L/10 home finales and should set their single
season attendance record with this game as they have avg 68,246 (up 20%).
Miami has been vulnerable at home this year with a 1-3 ATS record, but that
doesn’t tell the whole story. The one game the Canes covered at home was
actually closer than the final indicated vs BC, and they also narrowly
escaped FSU and Pitt at home. UM is 2-6 ATS as a DD fav this year. VT has
only been a DD dog once in the L/5Y (LY’s ATS win, but 2 pt SU loss to
Miami). VT’s last road trip was disappointing as the defense allowed Syr
604 total yds & 50 pts. UM’s #2 offense will face VT’s #17 defense. UM QB
Ken Dorsey is avg 252 ypg (55%) with a 23-9 ratio (8-6 ratio 49% vs
toughest 4 opp). RB Willis McGahee set UM single season records with 1737
all-purpose yards, 20 rush TD’s and 120 pts this year and has 1481 rush yds
(6.6). WR Andre Johnson has 42 rec (20.1). VT QB Bryan Randall is avg 149
ypg (63%) with an 11-11 ratio. RB Lee Suggs has 1200 yds (5.4) teamed with
Kevin Jones who has 835 yds (5.8). WR Ernest Wilford would love some
redemption here as he was responsible for LY’s dropped 2 pt conv, but he
has come a long way since then leading the team with 40 rec (20.2). VT
stopped their 3 game losing streak LW with a return to Frank Beamer’s
trademarks - tough defense and big special teams plays. VT held 1st Tm ACC
QB Matt Schaub to 12-23 for just 43 yds with a 1-1 ratio, and scored a TD
on a blk’d punt return. VT’s defense ranks #28 in our pass eff D rankings
allowing 217 ypg (53%) with a 12-20 ratio. The Hokies were shelled in their
3 losses allowing 251 ypg rush (4.9), and 491 total ypg, but, despite
losing their 2 starting DT’s to inj for the year following their WV loss,
they came back to allow just 203 total yds to Virginia LW. VT’s defense has
42 sacks this year, and this should be the most pressure Dorsey has faced
all year. Miami showed excellent focus LW as they totally dominated Syr
with a 565-305 yd edge in a 49-7 win. LY we saw countless teams who were in
line for the National Championship game go down late in the season, as they
looked ahead or were unable to play at their best because of the enormous
pressure. The way to beat Miami is with a solid rush attack, a mobile QB,
and a strong defense and VT has all those features. FORECAST: Virginia Tech
(+) 24 MIAMI, FL 34
OTHER GAMES
Fresno St at LOUISIANA TECH - LY marked the first meeting between these
foes in WAC play and FSU won 38-28, handing LT their only conference loss.
FSU failed to cover as a 22 pt HF but improved to 3-0 SU in the all-time
history of this series and have outscored the Techsters by a 120-52 margin.
In that game FSU had a 566-437 yard edge and outFD’d LT 28-22. FSU RB Paris
Gaines had a career best 203 yards. LT is 6-1 ATS as a home dog while FSU
is only 5-11 ATS as an away fav. Both teams had LW off and both have had
two byes in the last month. LT is 6-1 SU and 5-0 ATS (one was not lined) in
their L/7 home finales. FSU is 8-2 ATS in their L/10 season finales. FSU is
0-5-2 ATS in WAC play in 2002 and they have failed to cover each of their
L/4 on the road. LT is 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS at home compared to 0-7 SU and
1-6 ATS away from Ruston so, as you can see, they have played much better
at home. LT rates a the edge on offense at #51 (FSU #95) while FSU rates
the edge on D at #73 (LT #101) and the special teams units are about even.
LT QB Luke McCown is avg 302 ypg (60%) with a 17-18 ratio. He has played
better as of late with 367 ypg (65%) and an 8-6 ratio in his L/4 and has
topped 300 yds passing in each of those games. He will be facing the FSU
DB’s that are allowing 249 ypg (58%) and a 17-12 ratio. RB Joe Smith has
1093 yds (5.8) with 16 TD’s and he is also the #3 receiver with 45 rec
(7.5). Walk-on Chris Norwood is the top receiver with 56 grabs (11.8). On
defense LT allows 429 ypg and 34.6 ppg. After allowing just 98 ypg rush
(3.1) in their first three games they have allowed 195 ypg rush (4.3) in
their L/8. FSU rFr QB Paul Pinegar is avg 202 ypg (57%) with a 17-10 ratio,
numbers very comparable to those of David Carr in his first year as the
starter. He will be facing the LT DB’s that are allowing 260 ypg (62%) and
a 21-5 ratio. They have gotten those 5 int’s in their L/5 games after
failing to get a single one in their first 6, but they have also allowed
337 ypg pass in the L/5 after allowing just 195 ypg pass in the first 6. RB
Rodney Davis has 1212 yds (5.1). His brother, WR Marque Davis, is the top
receiver with 57 rec (14.4). “The Bodyguards” have been an underperforming
unit paving the way for just 3.5 ypc rush while allowing 28 sacks. FSU
allows 414 ypg total defense. Their front four has been solid recording 28
sacks. This is the Thursday Night ESPN Play and is available on Phil
Steele’s Private Play Hotline for only $9!! Call 1-900-903-9467 or log onto
the NCstore at www.ncsports.com after 5:00 EST on Thursday Night for the
Winner!! Already 11-4 73% this year and 19-7 73% the L/26!!!
Cincinnati at E CAROLINA - LW EC was at S Miss and had their slim bowl
hopes die when they were buried 24-7. The game was not as close as the
final would indicate however as SM had a 24-10 FD edge and outgained the
Pirates by a 414-154 yard margin. Their lone TD was an 82 yd fumble return
with 3:30 remaining but they were without their leading rusher, Art Brown,
who was a late scratch due to injury. Cincy hosted UAB in their home finale
and won 31-23 but failed to cover as a 17 pt HF. They were in a must-win
situation again here as a win not only makes them the CUSA co-Champs with
TCU, but also gives the Bearcats a school record third straight bowl trip.
The home team is 12-2 ATS in this series since 1986 with 5 straight covers.
LY EC led 28-3 in the 2Q and they had a 376-206 yard edge at the half but
they were a 1H team in 2001. In the 2H QB George Murray replaced an injured
Gino Guidugli and nearly led the comeback as Cincy lost 28-26 as a 7’ pt
HD. Murray got a TD run with :46 remaining and they recovered an onside
kick but the FG attempt by Groza Winner K Jonathan Ruffin fell short in the
waning seconds. EC is 12-2 SU in this series and is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS here
in Greenville with their average win by 17 ppg. Cincy is only 6-10 ATS as
an AF while EC beat TCU 31-28 as an 8’ pt HD in their only game as a HD
since 2000 (but it was a misleading final as they were outFD’d 22-9). The
Pirates are just 5-9 ATS in their L/14 at home. Cincy is 4-1 ATS on the
road in 2002. Cincy rates a slight edge on offense in our ratings but they
rate a HUGE edge on D at #29 while EC is #104. EC’s RB Brown has 1029 yds
(4.8) and 14 TD’s but, as mentioned, DNP last week. LW his replacement was
Christshawn Gilliam who had started the L/9 games at LB. Gilliam had 59 yds
(3.9) in his first action at RB since 2000. Brown’s status is unknown at
the time of this writing (check a Northcoast Full Service Line, Button #5,
for his status). QB Paul Troth is avg 185 ypg (50%) with a 14-19 ratio. He
is coming off one of his worst starts in his brief career and has just 94
ypg (35%) and a 3-6 ratio in his L/3. He will be facing our #20 pass
efficiency D which is allowing just 175 ypg (53%) and an 11-14 ratio. On
defense, EC allows 211 ypg rush (4.6). Cincy RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1115
yds (4.3). QB Guidugli is avg 250 ypg (55%) with a 17-15 ratio. WR LaDaris
Vann has 68 rec (12.2) and three UC WR’s have 40 or more receptions. Cincy
is allowing just 253 ypg total D in their L/7 games after allowing 381 ypg
in their first 5 games. EC does rate the edge on special teams at #39 while
UC is just #102. UC has had two punts blocked and has allowed a PR TD while
EC has blocked two punts, one of which was recovered for a TD. This is the
Friday Night game on ESPN. Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline will release
a play after 5:00 pm EST on Friday Night for just $9! Call 1-900-903-9467
or log on to our website at www.ncsports.com and go to the NCstore. Friday
Night Plays are now 4-2 this year!
Navy 28 vs Army 27 - The fact that both teams come in with identical 1-10
records does nothing to diminish the 103rd meeting in this rivalry. This
year’s game is being played in Giants Stadium for the 4th time since 1989
(also ‘93 & ‘97). The favorite has covered just 5 of the L/14 meetings.
Army is 9-5 SU, but 4-10 ATS the L/14 in this series. The prior year’s SU
loser is 13-7 ATS the following year. Only 3 times since 1992 has this game
been decided by more than 4 points, but those three all occurred in the L/5
years. Seven of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided in
the final minute with Army winning six of those SU by a combined 14 points!
LY the teams came into this game with a combined 2-17 record, but a sellout
crowd was on hand. Army dominated with a 313-130 yd edge and a 26-9 lead in
the 4Q before allowing Navy a garbage TD with :23 left. Navy is 6-3 ATS as
an AF since’90 (0-0 TY but 0-2 as a fav). Army was 4-6 ATS as an AD the
L/2Y. Army is just 1-11 ATS their L/12 off a bye while Navy is 13-8 their
L/21 after a bye. Navy HC Johnson kept the players away from the
traditional Thanksgiving table LW as the team practiced all 5 days
including Thursday morning in preparation for their rival. Navy has the
edge on offense with our #98 ranked unit (Army’s #109). The defenses are
very close. Navy QB Craig Candeto returned from injury vs WF hitting 7-11
for 122 yds with 2 TD’s & rushing for 37 yds with 1 TD in a 3 pt loss. With
him in the lineup for all or most of the game TY, the Middies avg 397 ypg &
23.2 ppg, but in the 2 games he was inj’d the team avg 175 ypg & 23 ppg.
Candeto is avg 76 ypg (48%) with a 4-4 ratio, but is also the team’s top
rusher with 672 net yds (4.2). FB Kyle Eckel is the #2 rusher with 485 yds
(3.4). Eckel has missed the L/2 but should return for this one. The defense
also receives a boost with the return of SS Lenter Thomas who has missed 3
games with inj, but is still the team’s #5 tackler. The Navy D ranks #110
in our rankings allowing 439 ypg and #116 in our pass eff def rankings
allowing 224 ypg (67%) with a 23-4 ratio. The Black Knights are just 16-32
ATS in games played in Nov & Dec since 1989. Both teams rank among the
nation’s worst in turnover ratio with Army being -12 while Navy is -16.
Army did win on the road vs a very good Tulane team three weeks ago but
their avg road loss has been by a 49-19 margin despite their stats being
nearly identical away from Michie Stadium. Army’s offense is avg just 305
ypg total offense while their D surrenders 383 ypg. QB Reggie Nevels has 74
ypg (51%) and a 3-5 ratio but he has provided a spark when healthy. RB
Carlton Jones has 575 yards (3.9) and backup Josh Holden has 8 TD’s. They
were without their top two WR’s in their last game two weeks ago but both
are expected to return here. Their OL has allowed a CUSA low 15 sacks
including just three combined to the DL’s of TCU, Louisville and Southern
Miss, all which rank in the Top 45 in our defensive ratings. The Army D
allows 191 ypg rush (4.1). Their DB’s are just #105 in our pass efficiency
D ratings allowing 192 ypg (62%) and a 19-6 ratio. This should be a tight
one again this year.
UCLA 21 Wash St 20 - This game is for the Rose Bowl and if Wash St wins
they will be back in Pasadena on New Year’s Day but if UCLA wins their arch
rival USC gets the roses. The home team has now covered and won the last 5
meetings in this series as you would expect with the climate and turf
edges. LY the key was 7 UCLA TO’s one of which was a 73 yd fumble ret’d for
a TD with all 3 of the Bruins QB’s being banged up. The Cougars won 20-14
outgaining UCLA 276-225. Both teams are playing an odd regular season game
after playing their rival two weeks ago. The Cougars have had some claws as
away dogs going 5-2 ATS the L/3Y (only time as AD TY was loss to Ohio State
25-7 as 7 pt dogs) but has also done well as AF’s going 6-2 the L/2Y. They
are 9-2 ATS on grass since 2000. UCLA has struggled as HF’s with a 4-9-2
ATS mark their L/15, as HD’s they are 5-3 under Toledo but were crushed by
rival USC 52-21 in that role two weeks ago. The big question here is the
health of Wash St’s offense as QB Jason Gesser (265 ypg, 59%, 25-9 ratio)
had a high ankle sprain vs Wash and their leading rusher Jermaine Green
(672 yds, 5.2) has a pulled groin muscle. Gesser said during the off week
he spent most of his time with his leg on ice and getting treatment and
expects to play here while the training staff says it is 50/50 at best.
Green’s status will not be known until much closer to game time (call a
Northcoast Full Service Line, Button #5, to check his status). There has
been some talk that Gesser could play between the 20’s, mostly out of the
shotgun, much like Marshall QB Byron Leftwich did with his injury, but much
of Gesser’s game centers around his mobility which will obviously be
limited here. Their #2 QB is Matt Kegel (PS#41) who has hit 26 of 39 for
203 yds. He did not look good replacing Gesser vs Wash but with the extra
time to prepare should be more efficient in the offense. UCLA has had some
QB problems of their own as true freshmen Drew Olson and Matt Moore have
taken over the last 4 games for the injured Cory Paus. The Bruins had avg
437 ypg on offense the 6 games before Paus’ injury but have only avg 329
ypg in the 4 they have started. For the year Olson has thrown for 525 yds
(52%) with a 1-1 ratio and Moore for 296 yds (53%) with a 2-0. RB Tyler
Ebell has been the main reason for their success as he has run for over 100
yds in 6 of the last 7 games since he took over as the starting TB. UCLA is
banged up at WR as #2 Tab Perry is questionable with a sprained ankle, with
a couple of backups doubtful to out. Rankings-wise these two teams are
pretty even with WSU having the advantage on offense (#19 vs #36) while
UCLA has the slight edge on def (#20 vs #24) and spec tms (#19 vs #20).
Both teams have good pass defenses with UCLA having our #11 pass eff D and
WSU our #19 unit. There is no question that with a healthy Gesser WSU is
stronger team but with the Rose Bowl on the line the Cougars may be playing
tight.
HAWAII 38 San Diego St 28 - SDS is 11-2-1 SU & 12-1-1 ATS vs Hawaii since
1985 and have won the L/9 in a row SU. The last meeting between these teams
was in 1998 a 35-13 SDS win as 22 pt HF’s thus the spread tie. UH is 4-1
ATS the L/5 home finales. Hawaii is 7-6 ATS as a HF since 2000 (2-3 TY).
SDS is 13-7 ATS as an AD since 1999 and 3-6 ATS on artificial turf since
1996. SDS is off a bye while Hawaii is in the 3rd of a 3 game homestand
facing Cincy & Alabama the L/2 weeks & will also be here Christmas Day as
they’ve already accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii is still
angling for an invitation to join the MWC, so expect them to put out their
best effort in this one. Hawaii is 4-0 ATS (2-2 SU) vs MWC teams since the
conference was formed in 1999. QB Timmy Chang had suffered a sprained thumb
& a slightly torn MCL in his left knee vs Cincy & was questionable vs Bama
LW, but did play & completed 26-53 for 372 yds, but the Tide forced him
into 4 int’s. Chang tried to rally Hawaii from a 21-3 deficit in the 4Q
with 2 TD’s. The Warriors were held to their lowest pt total for the season
(16). Hawaii’s offense is ranked #1 nationally as they avg 384 ypg and
Chang is avg 326 ypg (55%) with a 22-18 ratio. WR Jeremiah Cockheran has 75
catches (14.1) & Justin Colbert has 51 (15.5). Hawaii’s rush offense is
only avg 108 ypg & is ranked #102 nationally. They are giving up 202 ypg
passing & 26.1 ppg. Hawaii does have the edge on offense (#27) & defense
(#58), compared to SDS’s (#78 & #77). This game will be like a bowl game
for SDS as they come in 4-8 overall, but did finish 4-3 in conf play.
Aztecs’ WR J.R. Tolver and Kassim Osgood combined for 2 NCAA single-season
records 2 wks ago vs AF. The duo has 213 catches for 2928 yds (13.7). QB
Adam Hall is still experiencing headaches from his concussion & probably
won’t play here. For the season Hall avg’d 296 ypg (60%) with a 17-9 ratio.
Hall’s replacement will be Lon Sheriff who hit 29-42 for 289 yds with a 2-1
ratio vs AF. In the 1.5 games Sheriff has played TY, he has thrown more
TD’s than he did LY in 10 games (4). SDS’s passing offense is ranked #6
nationally, however their running game only avg 69 ypg & is ranked #114.
The Aztecs’ D is giving up 223 ypg passing & 31 ppg. SDS feels this
nationally televised game will help them in recruiting especially this late
in the season when most coaches are starting to hit the recruiting road. HC
Tom Craft blames a series of MWC teams drawing bye weeks prior to playing
SDS and over-scheduling in non-league play for the Aztecs not getting
closer to bowl eligibility.
MAC Championship MARSHALL 34 Toledo 33 - This is a rematch of LY’s
Championship game where Toledo pulled the outright upset 41-36 as a 3 pt
HD. Both teams once again know where they will go after this as they will
both return to the same bowl they played in LY. Marshall is headed to the
GMAC Bowl and Toledo is off to the Motor City Bowl. The BIG difference this
year is the game is in Huntington. Marshall has won the last 15 straight
home games SU (including the 2000 Championship). They are 6-0 SU and 3-2
ATS at home this year including winning the last 2 ATS. Toledo is 4-0 SU &
ATS in MAC road games including a win at co-West Champion, N Illinois.
Marshall is in their 6th straight MAC Championship game. LY was in their
1st SU loss but the Herd is only 2-3 ATS and one of those wins was as a 6’
pt dog vs W Mich in 2000. The last time they won and covered was the 1st
MAC Championship game in 1997 when they beat Toledo 34-14 as a 10 pt
favorite. Toledo will be playing in their 4th MAC Championship and they are
1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS. Marshall is coming off a 38-14 win as a 15 pt HF LW vs
Ball St. Leftwich was still limping on a sore shin but threw for 401 yds
and 2 TD’s including 319 in the 1H. He played the first 2 series in the 2H
leading Marshall down the field, being replaced both times by Stan Hill
within the 10 yd line. He then sat out the rest of the game. Leftwich is
avg 329 ypg (68%) with a 22-8 ratio. Marshall’s running game is led by RB
Brandon Carey with 605 yds (4.6). Franklin Wallace has 520 yds (4.8).
Toledo is coming off a 42-24 win as a 3 pt HF over their arch-rival Bowling
Green. They trailed 24-14 at the half before shutting BG down. Toledo has
now won 4 straight games SU & ATS since their only MAC loss to Miami. They
outgained BG 502-242 and outFD’d them 28-14. Toledo had two 100 yd rushers
in the same game for the 2nd time this season. Both times it was with their
“baby backs” rFr Trinity Dawson and true frosh Astin Martin. With his 112
yds Martin took over as the Rockets’ leading rusher with 679 yds (6.1). He
passed Sr RB William Bratton who has 639 yds (5.6) on the season but has
missed the last 4 games with injury. He was close to playing LW and should
have a good chance of playing here. Dawson is #3 on the team with 596 yds
(4.7). The Rockets’ offense is led by QB Brian Jones, leads NCAA in
completion percentage, as he is avg 241 ypg (71%) with a 21-6 ratio and is
the team’s #4 rusher with 382 yds (5.5). Toledo has the more balanced
offense running and passing and comes in at #25 in our rankings (Marshall
is #23). Both teams have surrendered an avg of 23 ppg (Toledo #59,
Marshall’s #79). Toledo comes in with our #18 ranked special teams unit
(Marshall #96). Toledo is an impressive 8-3 ATS, while Marshall is just 4-6
ATS. Marshall may also have some distractions this week with GMAC Bowl
preparations as the game is December 18th but it’s tough to go against the
Herd at home even with the red hot Rockets.
Big 12 Championship Oklahoma 27 Colorado 20 - This is the first time that
the Big 12 Championship game is being played in Houston in the brand-new
Reliant Stadium. CU has had the good fortune of being named the home team
in the Title game for the second year in a row despite the locale. Since
the Big 12 has been formed the “home” team has won every Title game. CU is
trying to become the first team in the 6 year history of the conference to
repeat as Champions. They have had trouble selling their allotment of
tickets for this game & had over 2,000 left as of presstime. OU fans should
dominate the crowd due to the proximity & their history of travelling well.
These 2 last met on Nov 2nd in Norman where OU won 27-11 as 13’ HF’s. That
was somewhat of a misleading final however as CU outgained (378-305) &
outFD’d (19-12) the Sooners but 4 TO’s, a muffed KO & a blocked FG did them
in. OU’s longest TD drive in the game was just 39 yds. After the game
Barnett said they would play a rematch the next day if they could. Stoops
responded to that by saying the first game wasn’t a “mulligan” hinting the
score could have been much more lopsided if OU hadn’t played the 2H
conservatively. Barnett also said that the int’s “weren’t a matter of
Oklahoma being in the right place. We just threw it right to them” but
Stoops again disagreed saying that his defense forced the TO’s “whether
Colorado wants to admit it or not.” Stoops is 13-2 SU vs Top 25 teams. Both
teams’ offenses are led by senior QB’s who were not the team’s original
starters when they got out of 2-a-days in August. OU QB Nate Hybl became
the Sooners’ starter when Jason White went down to a knee injury in the 2nd
game vs Bama. Hybl is avg 182 ypg (57%) with a 20-8 ratio and most
importantly, he hasn’t made too many mistakes. His best move has been to
hand the ball off to RB Quentin Griffin who is the Big 12’s second leading
rusher with 1552 yds (6.8). Griffin has benefitted from an early season
decision to use bigger TB Kejuan Jones in short yd & goal line situations.
Since Griffin didn’t have to absorb the pounding from those tough runs
early in the year he’s had fresher legs down the stretch and Jones has 14
TD’s. Griffin has run for 100 yds 8 games in a row and has been touted as a
Heisman candidate by Stoops. OL coach/running game coordinator Kevin Wilson
was brought in from NW prior to LY’s bowl & has paid dividends as OU is avg
4.6 ypc & allowing 25 sks after avg just 3.5 ypc & allowing 35 sks in 2001.
The OU defense remains one of the NCAA’s best especially in big games until
LW’s disappointing performances. They’ve put a serious dent in the Heisman
hopes of Seneca Wallace (4-22 for 43 yds with a 0-3 ratio), Kliff Kingsbury
(15-35 for 187 yds with a 1-2 ratio) & Chris Brown (25-103 with 0 TD’s).
Overall OU’s defense is #9 in our rankings but they were pitiful LW costing
us a College Totals Club Play on the Under in game vs Oklahoma St as they
gave up 506 yards to their instate rival. With that loss, their chances of
sneaking into the National Title were gone, which is a disappointment
especially because of the misleading final, but perhaps the Sooners spent
too much time looking ahead to this one. CU’s senior QB is JC transfer
Robert Hodge who is avg 167 ypg (58%) with an 11-6 ratio in Big 12 play.
Brown, the Big 12’s leading rusher with 1744 yds (6.3), didn’t play vs
Nebraska LW due to a bruised sternum which he suffered vs ISU. He is
expected to return for this one however & provides a nice compliment to
speedy Bobby Purify who has 739 yds (5.6). Purify was also injured LW and
4th stringer true frosh Brian Calhoun had 137 yds (6.9) after having just
27 rushes in their first eleven games. CU’s defense has been geared to stop
the spread this year moving to a 4-2-5 alignment after playing the 4-3 for
years. As you might expect they’ve struggled somewhat vs the run allowing
158 ypg (4.2) but have improved vs the pass allowing 206 ypg (56%) with an
11-14 ratio. Overall CU has our #19 defense. CU recovered nicely after
being down 13-7 in the 3Q in Lincoln LW outgaining NU 375-334 and scoring
the game’s last 21 pts for the 28-13 win as 1 pt AF’s. CU has now covered 8
of their L/9 games. CU is 17-5 ATS as a dog the L/22. OU has covered 5
straight off a SU loss.
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* Detroit over ARIZONA - These teams met LY with Arizona winning 45-38 as
a 1’ pt HF. Detroit had 30-23 FD & a 478-417 yd edges in a high passing
game. The Cardinals are not strong HF’s & are 6-15 ATS as such since 1997
but the Lions are 2-5 ATS the L/7 road games & 14-29-3 the L/46 games on
grass. The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS hosting art turf teams and are just 1-5
ATS at home in 2002. Both teams have been a disappointment TY taking their
fair share of injuries & blowouts. The Cardinals at home have been outFD’d
21-17 & outgained 372-296 with a scoring deficit of 131-85. The Lions have
not fared any better on the road being outFD’d 23-15 & outgained 407-279
with a scoring deficit of 195-100. Neither QB is doing very well at all as
Joey Harrington has thrown for 2142 yds (50%) with an 11-16 ratio while
Jake Plummer has thrown for 2245 ypg (53%) with an 11-17 ratio. LW rookie
Josh McNown got in some snaps against the Chiefs after Plummer threw for 88
yds (45%, 0-3 ratio) and he may do so here. Detroit is the healthier team
as LW the Cards only experienced WR Frank Sanders sprained his foot & OL
Pete Kendall sprained his knee & their status is unknown. We look for the
Lions to break their road losing streak here vs a team we won a 4* going
against in Power Sweep. FORECAST: Detroit 17 ARIZONA 9
3* San Francisco over DALLAS - We used a 3’* Late Phone Play on Dallas LY
as they beat the 49ers 27-21 as a 6’ pt HD. The Cowboys finished with 24-16
FD & 420-285 yd edges. San Francisco is 6-3 SU & ATS in the series & the
favorite is 6-3 ATS the L/9 as well. SF is 6-10 ATS their L/16 on art turf.
Dallas is 10-4 ATS as a home dog since ‘98. SF will be playing for the
tenth consecutive week while Dallas had a bye a month ago. SF has a two
game lead on St Louis with games vs Green Bay & at St Louis looming, so a
win here is almost a must. Dallas has three division games remaining but
their playoff aspirations are all but dead. The Cowboy OL has only fielded
the same lineup 3 times & LW Flozell Adams & Andre Gurode were both injured
& their status is unknown. Dallas has won the last 2 games at home but that
was facing a Jaguars’ offense that is #20 & a Redskins offense ranked #25 &
now faces the 10th ranked 49er offense. The Cowboy defense is tough but the
49ers have too much talent on their side for them to deal with. FORECAST:
San Fran 24 DALLAS 10
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo - This is the rematch of Bledsoe Bowl I which
the Patriots won 38-7 as a 3 pt AD. The Bills actually had a FD edge of
28-24 but were outgained 422-331 as Bill Belichick put everything from an 8
man front to a no man front in against the Bills’ offense. RB Antowain
Smith had his best game of the year rushing for 111 yds (3.8) & had 3 TD’s.
Since the first meeting Tom Brady has avg 237 ypg passing (62%) with a 6-2
ratio. Drew Bledsoe has avg 237 ypg passing (62%) with a 4-3 ratio. Buffalo
does not do well in division games & are 5-16 in them & is 4-8-1 ATS in div
road games. Buffalo is just 5-21 ATS after playing division rival Miami &
they have dropped each of their L/10 after facing the Dolphins. The
Patriots are 12-7 ATS the last 19 in division games. After playing 5 games
in 26 days the Patriots have 3 of their next 4 games at home vs division
teams with a Monday Night game against Tennessee up next. Buffalo hosts San
Diego next & then has to travel to Green Bay. The Patriots have had extra
days of rest to prepare for this game & we side with the home team.
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 30 Buffalo 21
2* NY Giants over WASHINGTON - The first game TY between these teams was
decided on a slippery, wet field in New York when Redskins kicker James
Tuthill slipped on a 42 yd FG & had his kick blocked. The Giants had a
21-12 FD edge & a 299-166 yd advantage but lost the cover 19-17 as a 3’ pt
HF. Washington is now 5-2 ATS the L/7 in the series & the dog is 7-1 ATS
the L/8. The Redskins were seriously beat up last week against Dallas
losing MLB Jeremiah Trotter to a torn ACL & DT Dan Wilkinson to a calf
injury. QB Danny Wuerffel has done a decent job the last 2 games throwing
for 478 yds (63%) with a 3-3 ratio but at least 2 if his int’s last week
were the WR’s fault. HC Steve Spurrier has already said that he will get
the start here. There are 7 common opponents between these teams & the
Giants outFD’d them 19-16 & outgained them 346-304 while being outscored
115-103. The Giants are 4-3 SU & ATS against them. The Redskins have been
outFD’d 20-17 & outgained 343-297 while being outscored 153-109. They are
3-4 SU & ATS against them. The Giants are back in the preferred role of a
dog & while they are only in the playoff chase mathematically they do have
the #12 offense facing an injury depleted #11 defense. The Giants’ defense,
however, is healthier with the #8 unit overall going against a #25 offense
of the Redskins & we side with road team getting the points. FORECAST: NY
Giants 24 WASHINGTON 21
OTHER GAMES:
NCAROLINA 19 Cincinnati 18 - The last time these teams met was in ‘99 when
CAR won 27-3 as a 6’ pt HF. CAR has suspended RB Lamar Smith who rushed for
737 yds (3.5) & 7 TD’s TY due to an off-field incident. LW they turned to
RB Dee Brown & against Cleveland he rushed for 122 yds (4.5). DT Brenston
Buckner returns for the Panthers after a 4 game suspension but the Panthers
should also get an answer concerning Julius Peppers’ probable suspension.
Over the last 4 weeks the Bengals offense is ranked #12 & Jon Kitna has
thrown for 284 ypg (62%) with a 5-4 ratio. LW marked the 4th time in 6
weeks the Bengals drove into the opposing red zone in the final minutes
with a chance to win. The QB pool of Rodney Peete, Chris Weinke & Randy
Fasani have combined for 185 ypg passing (54%) with a 4-10 ratio & the
offense is ranked #29 in the L/4W. Defensively the Panthers have the #14
defense the L/4 weeks & the Bengals have the #15 rated defense & we like
the road team with pts off a misleading final.
JACKSONVILLE 27 Cleveland 24 - Jacksonville won the last meeting between
these teams 15-10 as 2.5 pt AD’s with 19-11 FD & a 282-220 yd edges. This
game made the national headlines when Browns fans began throwing bottles on
the field after the referees overturned a Quincy Morgan reception after the
Browns had already snapped the ball. After an extremely disappointing game
vs the Panthers, the Browns are back in the AD role & they are 4-1 ATS
doing so TY. The Jaguars at home have been outFD’d 20-17 & outgained
335-303 while outscoring foes by an avg of 25-18. The Browns on the road
have outFD’d opponents 18-17 & have basically split the yards 316-315 with
a scoring margin of 20-19. Both teams are alive in the playoffs by the
slimmest of margins & this game could mathematically eliminate the loser.
St Louis 27 KANSAS CITY 24 - The last time these teams met was in 2000 when
KC upset STL 54-34 as a 4 pt HD. This is a big intrastate rivalry that
features Dick Vermeil coaching against the team he took to the Super Bowl.
LW the Chiefs 49-0 win over the Cardinals was the largest margin of victory
in the NFL in 13 years & teams are 12-3 ATS as a HF of less than 10 after a
31 pt margin of victory. The Rams are 6-15 ATS since ‘98 on grass & are
2-7-1 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3. The Rams possess a huge
advantage in that they have been allowing 218 ypg passing (63%) with a 9-11
ratio with the #7 defense. The Chiefs have been allowing 297 ypg passing
(65%) with a 21-15 ratio & have the #32 defense. The problem for the Rams
is that they have not won or covered the L/8 including the Super Bowl with
Kurt Warner at the helm. He reminds us of Drew Bledsoe LY with his poor
pocket presence giving him a “deer in the headlights” look when under
pressure leading to his 3-11 ratio & his 20 sacks in 6 starts. In his
defense though he has taken on the #11 defense vs Washington & the #3
defense of the Eagles. In Marc Bulger’s wins he took on defenses ranked #20
or lower in his 5 starts. The Rams should get the job done as Marshall
Faulk gets healthier & Warner faces a weaker defense.
PITTSBURGH 24 Houston 14 - Homefield advantage has not been what it used to
be for the Steelers as they are 1-4 ATS at home TY. They have outFD’d foes
22-20 & outgained them 406-375 with an avg score of 25-22 with the #16
defense right now. LY the Steelers outFD’d opponents 21-13 & outgained them
385-225 & had an avg score at home of 24-10. The Texans enter this game
with the #10 defense & on the road have been outFD’d 16-12 & outgained
284-226 with an avg score of 22-15. Dom Capers is 7-3 ATS as a DD AD while
the Steelers are 2-6 ATS as a DD HF. Kordell Stewart has thrown for 562 yds
(74%) with a 3-1 ratio since taking over for Tommy Maddox. Stewart may get
the start here again although Maddox who as a starter TY, has thrown for
1482 yds (62%) with a 12-9 ratio is healthy. If Stewart does start he is
2-9 ATS starting when the Steelers are a 7’ of more favorite with 5 losses
being outright. The Steelers only have Carolina up next but weather & the
poor surface conditions here may be a factor.
Atlanta at TAMPA BAY - The Bucs are off a Sunday Night road game & those
results are unavailable at press time. In the first game between these
teams TY Tampa Bay won 20-6 as a 1 pt AF. The Falcons held tough with a 6-3
until halfway thru the 3Q when a Falcons defender fell down on a slippery
artificial turf letting Keyshawn Johnson cruise to a 76 yd TD catch.
Atlanta is 7-0-2 on grass the last 9 tries. The Falcons are in the 3rd of a
3 game road trip & are 10-2-2 ATS on the road winning their 6 road games
TY. The Falcons are also 17-8-1 ATS as a division AD. The Bucs are 9-5 ATS
as a division HF & 7-2 ATS the last 9 at home. The Falcons on the road have
split the FD’s 22-22 & outgained them 397-379 with an avg score of 32-23.
The Bucs at home have outFD’d foes 19-17 & outgained them 328-301 with
score of 24-14. Atlanta has covered 7 of their L/8 games. Tampa has covered
8 of their L/9 ATS & they are in control of their own destiny with soft
road games remaining at Detroit & Chicago. Atlanta had a lucky cover LW
against the Vikings with a Daunte Culpepper TD catch called back at the end
of regulation & Michael Vick running for 46 yds for the OT cover. With this
being such a marquee game & the results of LW’s Sunday Night game being
unavailable and there being no line, we pass for now.
Indianapolis 24 TENNESSEE 23 - Tennessee won the first meeting in Indy
23-15 as a 3 pt AD. Indy had 25-13 FD & 378-198 yd edges. The Titans are
10-4 ATS as a HD since 1996. As a HF the Titans are 2-7-1 ATS. The Colts
are 6-10 the last 16 on grass. The Colts over the last 4 games have been
doing very well outFD’ing teams an avg 19-14 & outgaining them 357-251 with
a 97-39 scoring cushion with the #15 offense & #2 defense. The Titans have
outFD’d opponents 22-17 the last 4 weeks & outgained them 376-284 with a
scoring margin of 92-75 earning the #9 offense & the #6 defense. We feel
the Colts are the closest thing to LY’s Patriots team winning their last 4
games including games at Philadelphia & at Denver. The Titans on the other
hand should have lost to the Giants needing a TD with :08 left & a 2 pt
conversion to take them into OT LW. QB Peyton Manning returns to Tennessee
where he had so much success in college & the Colts get the outright win
here.
Philadelphia 23 SEATTLE 16 - Philadelphia beat Seattle 27-3 LY as 2’ pt
AF’s finishing with 18-9 FD edge & a 344-147 yd edge LW AJ Feeley made his
first start & threw for 181 yds (47%). The Eagles are playing in the first
of three road games in four weeks to end the regular season. Philly is 6-2
ATS as an AF the L/2Y & 11-4 ATS in their L/15 road games. The Eagles on
the road have outFD’d foes 22-18 & outgained them 353-289 & outscored them
29-18. SEA’s D at home has allowed the team to be outFD’d 23-22 & outgained
392-367 & outscored 25-22. Over the L/4 weeks the Seahawks offense has
risen to 3rd mainly on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck who in that time has
thrown for 307 ypg (68%) with a 4-2 ratio. However the Eagle pass defense
is ranked #10 for the season & Andy Reid will look to entrust the ball to
Deuce Staley against the #32 ranked rush defense here as Feeley makes his
1st road start.
New Orleans 20 BALTIMORE 13 - The Saints are off of LW’s Sunday Night game
vs Tampa Bay & those results are unavailable at this time. In 1999,
Baltimore beat the Saints 31-8 as a 9’ pt HF. The Saints are 6-2 ATS the
L/8 as an AF. Baltimore is 11-7-3 ATS as a HD S/‘96. Baltimore has covered
8 of their L/10 games overall and are 7-3 ATS in their L/10 at home. New
Orleans is 3-11-2 ATS in their L/16 vs AFC foes. BAL has won the last 2
games by misleading finals upsetting the Titans on a blocked punt & an
Andre Dyson int return for a TD called back for a questionable roughing the
passer penalty. LW against the Bengals they had another blocked punt & a 98
yd int return for a TD & for the 3rd straight week have been held to under
260 yds total offense while allowing over 335 ypg the last 4 weeks. The
Saints are still in the playoff hunt but with TB & Atlanta currently ahead
of them in the standings this in effect becomes a playoff game for them &
RB Duece McAllister will be another week healthier after his ankle sprain.
Denver 21 NY JETS 14 - The Jets are off a Monday Night game against the
Raiders & those results are unavailable. The Jets are however 9-1-1 ATS
coming off a Monday Night game the last 11 tries. The last time these teams
played each other was in 2000 when the Broncos beat the Jets 30-23 as a 2’
pt AD. Denver is 3-7 ATS as an AF in non-division AFC games including
losing the last 5 straight. The Jets are 13-30-1 vs non-division AFC teams
losing the last 4 at home in that role. The Jets defense has been playing
inspired ball lately allowing 264 yds total offense (#4 defense) in the 4
weeks prior to Monday & allowing 50 total pts in those games. The Broncos
defense has allowed 335 ypg in their last 4 games with 96 points for the
#17 defense. Offensively the Jets have been earning 352 ypg & 119 pts
during their 4 game win streak #17 offense prior to Monday. The Broncos
have garnered 361 yds offensively (#13 offense) & 88 pts in their last 4
games. QB Brian Griese & TE Shannon Sharpe should return for this game. The
Broncos have a pair of division games up next traveling to Oakland & then
facing KC at home. The Jets have a road game against Chicago up next but we
look for the Broncos to get the must win here.
Oakland 23 SAN DIEGO 16 - Oakland is off LW’s Monday Night game & those
results are unavailable. San Diego won the 1st game between these teams in
OT TY 27-21. Oakland had a 26-24 FD edge & a 390-333 yd edge but LaDainian
Tomlinson ran for 153 yds (3.9) including a 19 yd TD run to win in OT. The
dog in this series has done very well as they are 19-8 ATS overall & 10-3
ATS when the game is in San Diego. HC Marty Schottenheimer has also done
well at home against the Raiders posting an 8-2 ATS (10-0 SU) mark against
them in KC all as a HF & won the last 7 SU & ATS. The Raider offense is
centered around the pass as Rich Gannon has thrown for 300 yds in 8 games
so far TY & on the road the Raiders have on avg outFD’d foes 24-21 &
outgained them 439-334 with a scoring margin of 29-21. SD at home has been
pretty even with opponents with a 20-18 FD edge & a 365-362 yd edge & have
a 24-23 scoring balance as well. The Raiders are the more explosive team &
should get the win against a Chargers team off a tiring OT game LW and keep
in mind home teams are 4-10 TY after OT games.
Minnesota at GREEN BAY - MIN upset the Packers earlier TY at home to
prevent them from capturing the NFC North Title. The Packers did wrap up
the NFC North LW & have another home field advantage deciding game against
the 49ers up next. The Packers are at home for the 2nd week in weather that
turns to their advantage while the dog is 15-6 ATS in the series S/’92. GB
has lost their starting OT’s for the year & haven’t done that well in
stopping the run allowing 127 ypg rushing (4.9 ypc). Minnesota’s Michael
Bennet has rushed for 994 yds (5.4) TY but has been slowed by a sprained
ankle. This is the Sunday Night game on ESPN. Call on Sunday morning for
Phil Steele’s Private Play Hotline release for just $9 at 1-900-903-9467 or
log on to our website at www.ncsports.com at the NCStore.
Chicago AT MIAMI - Chicago had a chance to cover with :10 remaining at
Green Bay, but elected to go for 2 & came up short losing 30-20 as a 9’ pt
AD. They have covered three of their L/5 & are still playing hard despite
their 3-9 SU record. Miami lost at Buffalo LW 38-21 as a 2’ pt away fav but
QB Jay Fiedler should start here as he came off the bench LW to replace the
injured Ray Lucas. Miami is 11-2-1 ATS in their L/14 as a HF but this may
be a flat spot as they have Oakland on deck. Miami is 4-10 ATS in their
L/14 vs NFC foes. The Bears played a tough conservative game against the
Rams in their last Monday Night appearance for the cover.