Previous bowl records are important
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - There will always be upsets in bowl games, such as Boise State's improbable victory over Oklahoma in last year's Fiesta Bowl. On the other hand, heavy favorites can also cruise to easy wins, as LSU proved in its 41-14 Sugar Bowl romp over Notre Dame.
Favorites have had an easy time capturing straight up wins in postseason play the last two years, taking about two-thirds (39-20) of all bowl games. Unfortunately, the high winning percentage has not carried over against the spread, as underdogs have the 57% advantage with a 33-25-1 mark.
It's sometimes hard to decipher which bowl games showcase the most winnable wagers, and which ones are best just to watch and enjoy. What follows is some key information regarding how some clubs have fared in recent years and which might garner more support than originally anticipated.
Cincinnati is 2-3 SU in its last five bowl games with a pitiful 1-4 ATS mark. The Bearcats are in the state of Alabama for the Papajohns.com Bowl on December 22 against Southern Miss, a team ready to do battle in what will be Jeff Bower's final game as head coach of the Golden Eagles. Bower and his Eagles have won five of their last seven bowl games (including three straight) to go along with a 4-2-1 ATS record.
The Bearcats are 11-point favorites, an extremely high number after winning just three of their final six games. They benefited from a +15 turnover differential to go 6-0 in their first six contests, but will not be so lucky here against the ball-control offense of Southern Miss.
Another game that looks too good to be true comes from Houston, Texas where the Houston Cougars hook up with TCU. Houston is 0-7 (2-5 ATS) in bowl action since winning the 1980 Garden State Bowl, while the Horned Frogs are 3-1 in their last four, 3-0-1 ATS. In addition, TCU won and covered the last four meetings between these two clubs when both were Conference USA members.
The Frogs have gone 18-6 the past three seasons in the Mountain West Conference, a tougher league with a higher profile than Conference USA. In fact, the latter conference ranks as the third-worst in my power ratings, only ahead of the Sun Belt and MAC, and the C-USA West Division finished the regular season with an even lower average than the West Division from the MAC.
TCU is favored by 3.5 points and will easily win this one by at least a touchdown.
OTHER IMPORTANT NUMBERS
New Mexico hosts Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl on December 22. The Lobos are 2-7-1 lifetime in postseason play, 0-4 both SU and ATS in their last four. They even lost at home in this very same bowl last year to another WAC club in San Jose State. Nevada's last five bowl games have been decided by three points or less, including three by just one, and the Wolf Pack are getting three points in this one.
Boise State takes on East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl. The Broncos are 5-2 both SU and ATS in their seven lifetime bowl games, while the Pirates are 1-3 both SU and ATS in their last four, losing by 14 points or more in two of the three defeats. In addition, East Carolina certainly does not have any advantages in this one, having to go to Aloha Stadium, a place that Boise is somewhat familiar with having played there two of the previous three years. Expect the Broncos to be all business while the Pirates may soak up too much sun on the Honolulu beaches.
Penn State and Texas A&M square off in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX on December 29. The Nittany Lions are 23-12-2 in their bowl history, including five wins in their last seven games. On the flip side, the Aggies have been the antithesis of the Lions with a 1-6 SU record since a 1997 Cotton Bowl loss to UCLA. They are also a measly 1-4 ATS in their last five.
Clemson is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in seven bowl games under head coach Terry Bowden. More importantly, the Tigers are 1-3 ATS as favorites over that span and they're favored by a deuce in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against the Auburn Tigers, who have won four of their last five bowl appearances with a 3-2 ATS mark.
The New Year presents many intriguing matchups, including Wisconsin vs. Tennessee. The Badgers have been ultra-impressive of late with a 6-2 SU mark in their last eight postseason contests, 5-1 as underdogs. They'll be in that role once again against Tennessee.
The Volunteers are actually favored in this game despite the Badgers' impressive postseason resume and the expected return of running back P.J. Hill. Given that, one would think the Vols have had rock-solid success in bowl action, but they have been won only two of their last seven, both straight up and against the spread.
Michigan and Florida meet in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando, a site that has to favor the Gators. Head coach Urban Meyer, who has won and covered his last four bowls - two each with Florida and Utah, looks to make it five straight, a marked contrast from Florida's previous regimes that had won only one of the previous six contests prior to Meyer's arrival.
The Wolverines have been easy prey for their opponents this decade, losing and failing to cover five of the seven games played. They are also 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as underdogs, the same scenario they find themselves in against Florida and Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow.