In sports betting, the key to winning big is finding the upside
By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers
They were supposed to be evenly matched but the 4 and 5 seeds in the NBA’s Eastern Conference proved the regular-season standings don't always mean much. The Chicago Bulls swept the Miami Heat and advanced in the playoffs for the first time since 1997.
As we head into the second round, what can gamblers take from a series where the defending champion Heat were walked over like a tricycle-riding Mugsy Bogues?
Both teams had similar regular-season records – the Bulls went 49-33 and the Heat were 44-38. Granted, Chicago was 3-1 against Miami in their four scheduled meetings, so it can’t be said there wasn’t any foreshadowing. Still, these are the defending champs we’re talking about, the same team that went 16-7 in last year’s run, including a first-round win over Chicago.
Luol Deng was unstoppable during Chicago's first-round sweep of the Heat. (AP Images)It’s not like the Heat came close, either. The Bulls went 3-0-1 against the spread in the series. All told, they clobbered the line by a combined 44 points, winning twice in Florida as underdogs.
Everyone’s heard the stock-trading adage, “Buy low, sell high.” Well, anyone who bet on Miami should take heed of it once more because the Heat were a team with very little upside.
Generally, even if a defending champion endures a rocky regular season like Miami did, there’s a certain level of respect held in reserve for them. However, the 2006-07 Heat didn’t deserve the ring-holder premium.
Nobody should have expected Wade to best his playoff-MVP performance of last season, the one which included, among other things, him scoring 42, 36, and 43 points in Games 3, 4, and 5, respectively, against Dallas in the Finals. That goes double after suffering an injury-riddled campaign that ended with Monday’s announcement he would undergo shoulder surgery in the offseason. Wade suffered a dislocated left shoulder and torn labrum Feb. 21 but returned for the final nine games of the regular season.
Nor could anymore be expected of the aging stars Shaquille O’Neal (35), Alonzo Mourning (37) and Gary Payton (38).
If you wanna talk upside, let’s talk the Chicago Bulls.
The Upside Of Anger
Guiding Chicago is coach Scott Skiles, a grizzled, ornery leader at the forefront of the Baby Bulls’ maturation process. Long known for a no-nonsense approach and a hair-trigger temper, Skiles – the little grump that could – did a masterful job of allowing his Bulls to celebrate the series-clinching win over Miami while reminding them there is a lot more work to be done.
''One of my weaknesses is, I tend not to enjoy wins enough,'' Skiles told the Chicago Sun-Times. ''I'll enjoy this one. I don't want to downplay it to a ridiculous level. We advanced. I want our guys to celebrate tonight, go ahead and enjoy it. But we intended on continuing to play, and we've been talking about that for a while.''
It’s a great bit of news for those who consider Chicago a buy-low, sell-high proposition. The Bulls are riding high, but Skiles keeps them grounded. They’ll head into the Eastern Conference semifinals as underdogs to top-seeded Detroit, but numbers dictate they shouldn’t.
Head coach Scott Skiles has led the Bulls into the second round for the first time since the Jordan Era. (AI Wire photo)The Bulls went 3-1 straight up (3-1 against the spread) in their four games against the Pistons this season, outscoring them by 35 points. This included a whitewash 106-88 victory in Detroit on April 4th – all the more impressive given that Ben Wallace was out with sinusitis, and Gordon only scored two points in 12 minutes.
The key to the Chicago attack against Miami was balance. Much of the same could be said about Chicago’s regular-season meetings with Detroit. The Bulls boasted three different high scorers (Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich) in the four contests, and in every game they had at least four double-digit scorers.
This balance stretches over to the defensive side of the ball as well. With a litany of solid perimeter defenders at his disposal – Deng, Hinrich, Thabo Sefolosha and Chris Duhon – Skiles has several strategies to upset opposing guards and small forwards. It worked against the Heat, as Wade was harassed into nearly six turnovers per contest. It worked this season against Detroit, as Chicago harassed the Pistons’ top three scorers – Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince – into shooting a collective 34.1 percent.
“Chicago – as a young team – has proven that they can handle adversity, they can deal with teams when they play well against them. It doesn’t rattle them or totally take them out of their game,” ESPN analyst Greg Anthony told Bodog Beat contributor Jimmy Shapiro. “I would not be shocked at all if Chicago advances, they have really grown as a basketball team. I think this could be the best series, potentially, in the entire postseason.”
Again, talk about upside.
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