Sat Service Plays

Brian Mac Futures- 12* NAVY, TEXAS TECH; 10* AIR FORCE, ARKANSAS

Lenny Stevens- 20*- Arkansas, NC State; 10*- Oregon, Kansas St, Penn St

Dr. Bob [confirmed] 3* NEW MEXICO ST. plus 34 or more ; 2* N.C. STATE, 2* ARKANSAS ST,
2* WASHINGTON, 2*TCU

Private Players- 5* IOWA, 4* KANSAS, NC STATE,
3* PENN STATE, TULSA
Private Players Totals- 5* [Indiana/OVER],
4* [Florida State/UNDER], [Nebraska/UNDER]

A-Play [10* 25-12] WAKE FOREST, BYU, UCLA, STANFORD
A-Play [20* 0-3]

Captain [30-16 Overall]
25* [2-1] None Yet.
20* [8-7] NEBRASKA, BOISE;
15* [1-0] NORTHERN ILLINOIS;
10* [19-8] LOUISIANA TECH, [Oregon/UNDER]

Game Day [3* 9-5-1, 4* 7-3, 5* 1-0] 5* GOY- NOTRE DAME

Total Edge [17-7 Overall] [Purdue/UNDER], [Oregon/UNDER], [Washington State/UNDER]

Nationwide [Super Power 7’s 4-0] SP-7 BALL STATE

Dr. Bob [3*+ are 14-2] 3* NEW MEXICO STATE
Dr. Bob [1-2*’s are 11-10] 2* NC St., Ark.St., Washington, TCU

Larry Ness [20-11 Overall] 10* NOTRE DAME, BOISE, OREGON STATE, ARMY

Randy Radtke [20-13 Overall] TENNESSEE, MICHIGAN STATE, FLORIDA

Pointwise [4* 11-6] 4* PENN STATE, TEXAS TECH

Special K- 20*TULSA, 15* EASTERN MICHIGAN

Cowtown [4*+ 4-2] None Yet To Report
Cowtown [3* or less 8-15] 3* TCU; 2* PURDUE, MINNESOTA; 1* FRESNO STATE

Spreitzer- Main Event Game of the Year- PENN STATE

Sports Connection- 20* BALL STATE, VIRGINIA

From the Bobby Bankersports group

Billy Hill 11 1/2 unit Western Michigan (Vrs E Mich )

Jimmy Z 4 1/2 Minn (vrs Indiana)

Jimmy Z 4 1/2 Missouri +11 1/2
(this is his top rated underdog of the week)

Brian Mac
12 units Navy
12 units Texas Tech
10 units Air Force
10 units Arkansas

THE WUNDERDOG
FREE PLAY
NORTH CAROLINA +4.5 over Boston College (Saturday 12:00 Eastern)

GamblersWorld

Sport: College Football Picks

Game: Alabama @ Mississippi St. on Nov 5 2005 3:30PM

Prediction: Mississippi St.

Current Line: 16.5 -110

Over/Under: 37 -110

Reason: Mississippi St. has struggled on offense all season long and that things won’t get easier this Saturday against Alabama. The goal for the Tide this week is to not only win, but to stay healthy and not tip its hat too much. Reason being, Alabama hosts 5th ranked LSU next Saturday so if there is one game that the Tide will hold back, this is it. The Bulldogs have a decent defense and it has gotten better each week, allowing fewer points in each of their last four games.

Special K
20* Tulsa
15* E. Michigan

POLO SPORTS
Rutgers-3
Arkansas-4
BYU-11 1/2
Colorado St+7
Washington St+2 1/2
Miami Hurricanes+6 1/2

Pointwise
4* Penn St, Texas Tech
3* Va Tech, Wash St, BYU, Arkansas, LA Monroe, Wake Forest, SMU

Bill Livingston
UNC
Va Tech
Az St
Oregon

Colin Cowherd

CAL/OREGON UNDER
PENN ST -11
NC ST +13'
UCLA -9'
VA TECH -6'

#1 SPORTS
FREE WINNER: WISCONSIN BADGERS + 10 1/2

Rockdeman
SATURDAYS FREE PLAY ----------------VA TECH

Carolina Sports
Comp selection: Texas A&M/ Texas over the total

BETTORSWORLD KEY RELEASES

5* Alabama -16 over Miss St

Time for Bama to put some points on the board if they want to be taken seriously in the big picture and no better place to start than with a Mississippi State team they have scored 30 and 38 on the last two years. This game appears to be a total mismatch as Miss State has lost 5 in a row with the last two losses coming at the hands of Kentucky and Houston. They managed to score just 7 points against the 100th ranked Kentucky defense. Bama was able to find the endzone plenty of times against the likes of Florida, South Carolina, So Miss and Arkansas before struggling a bit offensively against Mississippi and Tennessee. Back on track last week scoring 35 on Utah State. We should see more of the same this week. This one has 42-3 written all over it.

3* South Carolina +4 over Arkansas

Huge game for South Carolina team with bowl game hopes as they sit at 5-3 on the year and aren't likely to grab a win in their final two games when they host Clemson and Florida. So, in a nutshell, this is it. While all the technical edges and against the spread trends favor Arkansas here, our numbers say South Carolina is the better team. We make this game pk or Ark -1 at most, so feel pretty good about a +4 cushion. We're a little leary of a South Carolina letdown following last weeks big win over Tennesee not to mention the fact that Arkansas looking for a little revenge for last years loss in the final minute of the game..

2* Stanford +34.5 over USC

Scary proposition going against the Trojans. But we have 34.5 good reasons to take a shot. Offensively, this is the same Stanford team that took a 28-17 lead in the first half in last years game, which USC went on to win 31-28. Stanford has covered 3 out of the last 4 against USC, winning outright in 2001 (The last team to beat USC at home). We see a 48-21 type of a game here, so, while we don't usually reccomend backing dogs to "hang" within a number, that's exactly what we find ourselves doing here. Stanfords goal here will be to shorten this game which means in all likelihood, time will run out before it gets too ugly.

Scott Spreitzer Main Event GOY

Penn State
Laying the points with Penn State as Main Event Game of the Year. Barry Alvarez has outdone himself in 2005, his final season as HC. Wisconsin has nothing on the defensive side of the football, yet they're in the mix for the Big-10 title. In fact, I really look for this team to crash to earth next season when Alvarez is no longer roaming the sidelines. But as far as this game, even he cannot make up for Wiscy's matchup disadvantages. Penn State has everything Wiscy struggles to stop. A strong running game averaging 5.3 YPC, and a mobile and effective QB. The Badgers have allowed just under 6 yards per carry in Big-10 play and almost 250 RYPG. And, they were actually out-gained by Illinois, allowing 538 yards! On offense, Wiscy does have Calhoun in the backfield, but the Badgers have rushed for 3.6 yards or less per carry in 5 of their last 7 games, including 2.7 against Indiana and 1.8 per carry against Purdue. They face a Penn State defense that holds opponents to 2.7 yards per carry and 5.4 PYPA! PSU is the real deal, while Wiscy has been doing it with mirrors. Wiscy's a pretender that gets exposed in Happy Valley. Penn State-Spreitzer's Main Event Game of the Year!

Scott Spreitzer

Game: Arizona St. at Washington St. Nov 5 2005 5:00PM

Prediction: Arizona St.

Reason: Arizona State stopped the bleeding last week in their 44-20 win over Washington.
QB Sam Keller is out for the season, but Rudy Carpenter is a star in the making. The RS Frosh
has been thrown into the mix - and showed last week why he was so highly regarded
by Dirk Koetter. Carpenter connected on 27 of 34 passes for 401 yards and 3 TDs against
the Huskies. He's started 2 games since the Keller injury and he's connected on a combined
46 of 59 attempts for 705 yards with 7 TDs and just 1 pick. WRs Derek Hagan and Terry Richardson have both topped the 100-yard mark in receiving yards in Carpenter's first 2 outings. Those numbers should continue to grow against a Washington State defense that has allowed 42 or more points
in 4 of their last 5 games. Even if they get the services of LB Will Derting back, they won't stand up to the ASU air attack. WAZZU has allowed 976 passing yards in their last 3 games at a bad 8.71 passing yards per attempt. With Carpenter hitting for 11.95 yards per attempt, looks for ASU to light up the scoreboard. The Sun Devils need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility. They'll get one here. The number is low and we'll lay it. ASU minus the points on Saturday.

REAL ANIMAL

Pick title: 2* North Carolina +5
Pick Date: 11/05/2005
Pick description:
A gigantic game here for North Carolina as the Heels are 3-4 SU and begin a three-game home stand with Boston College, Maryland, and Duke. They end the season at Virginia Tech so a 3-0 Tobacco Road sweep is mandatory for a post-season invite. Last week they led at Miami 16-7 at halftime before running out of gas. But holding the Hurricanes to 321 total yards in the Orange Bowl isn’t too shabby. Easy to forget but the UNC defense held Marques Hagans, Wali Lundy (seems like an eight-year starter), and the Virginia offense to five points and 199 total yards in their last home effort. I’ve been very impressed with the hard running style of Ronnie McGill in the last two games. He had 118 yards against Virginia and had 66 yards on 13 carries versus Miami. QB Matt Baker has had two bad games in a row but should be able to find success against BC. The Eagles are a different team on the road compared to at Chestnut Hill. Boston College is accumulating 131 yards less per game on the road and allowing an additional 92. That’s a 223-yard swing on the road compared to home. The bottom line is Boston College has failed miserably in their two marquis games this year against Florida State and Virginia Tech. Last week their defense may have been exposed allowing 492 total yards in Blacksburg. A bad sign was them barely beating Wake Forest the previous week as a two-touchdown favorite. Wake is the type of team BC clobbered in the past. With no chance now of winning the ACC, I question the motivation for the Eagles, who are already bowl eligible. They’ve scored just 46 points in three road games to date and have committed at least two turnovers in five consecutive games. North Carolina has taken on a top-five schedule in the country already playing Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, NC State, Utah, Louisville, Virginia, and Miami. No softies (quite refreshing) for Coach Bunting. McGill, who was hurt earlier this year, should be the difference-maker on Saturday. Also note the revenge factor for North Carolina as Boston College beat them 37-24 in the Continental Tire Bowl (corporate sponsorship a fiasco). Has it really been 10 years since our last Poulan Weed Eater bowl? Vegas doesn’t expect a repeat of last December’s decision with the total in the low 40’s. BC QB Quinton Porter didn’t look 100 percent after the Virginia Tech game last week and the Eagle’s leading ground producer had 29 yards on eight carries. While I respect Coach O’Brien’s 23-3 SU record (19-6 ATS) off a loss, I still question how good this Boston College team is. I took the Tar Heels +5

Alex Smart

BYU -11.0
Sat Nov 5 '05 3:00p

The BYU Cougars come into this contest against UNLV Running Rebels with some revenge on their minds, because of a humbling 24-20 loss in last years head to head conflict. The Cougars dominated last years battle ,out gaining the Rebels by a 449-259 count, but lost thanks to some very sloppy play, turning the ball over 5 times. Look for BYU to get be fully focused here this week as they lay out a convincing DD digit beat down on their unfortunate hosts. Final note: UNLV 2-10 SU/ATS L/12 November home games since 1997. Lay the points

LT Profits

South Carolina +4.0
Sat Nov 5 '05 12:30p

Steve Spurrier has South Carolina playing some very nice football right now, and he has the Gamecocks thinking Bowl game!

The Cocks scored their biggest win of the season last week 16-15 on the road at Tennessee, and although the Volunteers have been a major disappointment this year, they are still usually tough to beat at home. Yes South Carolina must now guard against a letdown, but the quest to become Bowl eligible should be enough motivation here. The Gamecocks have now won three straight games to improve to 5-3 as they routed Kentucky and beat Vanderbilt in their two games prior to last week.

Arkansas is in a rebuilding year and it has shown, as the Razorbacks are just 2-5 overall and a modest 2-2 here at home. Furthermore, their wins have come vs. Division I-AA Southwest Missouri State and vs. a dreadful UL Monroe team, so the Hogs have yet to beat a decent team this year. They are facing what can potentially be a very good team here, which makes Arkansas a very suspicious favorite in this spot.

Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
12 pm Pacific Time - rotation #349
***New Mexico St. 18 BOISE ST. (-35.0) 42
Boise State is overrated and in a major flat spot hosting a winless New Mexico State squad, riding a 6 game win streak, and looking ahead to their Thursday night showdown with Fresno State. How could the Broncos possibly be focused on this game? They won't be. Boise State applies to a very negative 18-60-1 ATS big favorite
letdown situation that plays against big favorites on long win streaks against bad teams on losing streaks. There is also that look-ahead to the Fresno State game coming up just 5 days after this game. Teams that played last week and have a Thursday game coming up are only 19-34-1 ATS as home favorites against losing teams, so the Broncos can be expected to focus more on next Thursday's game than this Saturday's game. Boise is 27-10 ATS at home in their history, but the Broncos are only 8-9 ATS laying more than 21 points here, including a lackluster 38-21 win as a 30 ½ point favorite against San Jose State a few weeks ago. Aside from the letdown, the Broncos are also overrated. Boise State is known for being a great offensive team, but they've averaged their 5.9 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average offensive team. Boise State is also 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and the only thing better than average about the Broncos is their special teams (+2.9 points). New Mexico State is a bad team, rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average on both sides of the ball, but my math model favors Boise State by just 25 ½ points in this game. Boise has played better at home this year, as usual, but the math would favor the Broncos by only 33 points if I used on their compensated home statistics instead of their stats from all games. So, there is solid line value to go along with the good situation and I'll take the points with New Mexico State in a 3-Star Best Bet.

Downgrade New Mexico State to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 34 points.

Downgrade New Mexico State to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 31 points.

2 Star Selection
12:30 pm Pacific Time - rotation #393
**No Carolina St. 20 FLORIDA ST. (-13.5) 26
NC State didn't cover last week as a Strong Opinion laying 6 ½ points to Southern Miss despite out-gaining the Eagles 426 yards (at 5.4 yards per play) to 246 yards (at 3.7 yppl). I'll give the Wolfpack another endorsement today in their preferred role of road underdog. NC State is an incredible 13-0 ATS as an underdog away from home under coach Chuck Amato (8-5 straight up), who was a long time assistant at Florida State for Bobby Bowden. Amato has also had success against his former mentor with a 3-1 ATS mark the last 4 years, including 2 upset wins and two close losses (one in overtime as a 13 ½ point dog and the other by 7 points as a 6 ½ point dog). The Wolfpack should keep this game close too, as they are not that much worse than the Seminoles. NC State's offense has been disappointing this season, averaging just 5.0 yppl against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average offense, but freshman running back Andre Brown was given his first significant playing time last week and he ran for 248 yards and caught passes for 31 more yards. While Brown looks like an improvement at running back, the insertion of Marcus Stone into the lineup at quarterback hurts the Wolfpack, as Stone has averaged only 5.4 yards per pass play on 62 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and former starter Jay Davis averaged 6.2 yppp against teams that would allow only 5.7 yppp to an average quarterback. The lower passing rating with Stone at quarterback is far more hurtful than the boost in the rushing numbers with Brown and I rate the NC State attack at 0.4 yppl worse than average. Florida State is 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.9 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense), but the Wolfpack should have decent success running the ball against a Seminoles' defense that has been inconsistent defending the run this year (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team). What will keep NC State in this game is a solid defense that rates at 0.9 yppl better than average this season (4.7 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense), as that unit has an advantage over a Florida State offense that is 0.7 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Freshman quarterback Drew Weatherford is doing a good job, but he has bolstered his numbers by racking up big yardage against bad teams. The Seminoles averaged just 4.4 yppp against Virginia Tech and Boston College (who would combine to allow 4.3 yppp to an average QB) and NC State's strong pass defense (5.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.6 yppp against an average team) will test Weatherford today. Florida State is also banged up on the offensive line with two starters out, including their top offensive lineman Matt Meinrod, who has missed the last 3 games and is out for the year. Florida State's compensated running numbers in their last 3 games are 0.2 yprp down from their season average and their offense is actually 0.6 yppl better than average (instead of +0.7 yppl) with the current status of their offensive line. My math model favors Florida State by only 7 points and it would have been FSU by only 1 point if Amato was smart enough to start Davis at quarterback instead of Stone. Of course, there is a scenario in which Davis could enter the game if Stone starts to struggle, so I don't see this game getting out of hand unless the Wolfpack are - 2 or worse in turnover margin. I'll take my chances on that and will take NC State +13 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet.Downgrade NC State to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 13 points.

2 Star Selection
2 pm Pacific Time - rotation #403
**Arkansas St. 24 MIDDLE TENN (-5.5) 21
Middle Tennessee is considered by most to be the best team in the Sun Belt by virtue of their win over Vanderbilt and their solid defense. However, the Blue Raiders have an offense that I rate among the worst 5 in College football and Arkansas State is a better team overall. Middle Tennessee State does have a very good offense by Sun Belt standards, as the Blue Raiders
have allowed only 5.0 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. However, Arkansas State has an offense that has averaged 6.4 yppl this season against teams that would allow 6.5 yppl to an average attack, so the Indians' offense is actually slightly better than Middle Tennessee's defense. Arkansas State has a bad defensive unit, rating at 1.0 yppl worse than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would
average only 4.4 yppl against an average team), but that unit isn't that bad by Sun Belt standards and they are better than a Blue Raiders' offense that has managed to average only 4.3 yppl this season despite facing teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average offensive team. Middle Tennessee has averaged only 13.8 points per game and the were held to a total of just 17 points in home games against the two worst defensive teams that they have faced (North Texas and Louisiana-Lafayette, who worse than Arkansas State defensively on average). My math model favors Arkansas State by 3 points in this game and the Indians apply to a decent 133-72-5 ATS indicator that is based on their losing spread record. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, applies to a negative 42-99-2 ATS situation and the Raiders are 0-3 straight up as home favorites this season with an average line of -8 ½ points and an average score of 8-15. I'll take Arkansas State in a solid 2-Star Best Bet and I'll Upgrade Arkansas State to a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.

Downgrade Arkansas State to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 4 points.

2 Star Selection
3:30 pm Pacific Time - rotation #360
**WASHINGTON 34 Oregon St. (-3.5) 30
Washington is clearly a better team than Oregon State and I'll take the victory-starved Huskies as a home dog against a team that they can handle. Washington has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation this season with California, Notre Dame, UCLA, Oregon, USC, and Arizona State having already been faced. That tough schedule hides the fact that the Huskies have actually made progress this season and are a pretty decent team. Washington has averaged 5.8 yards per play this season with starting quarterback Isaiah Stanback behind center, which is great considering that the Huskies have faced teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average team. Stanback has been very good, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback, and he'll light up a horrible Oregon State secondary that has surrendered a ridiculous 9.0 yppp this season (to teams that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average team). The Beavers are great against the run (4.0 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yprp against an average defense), but the defense as a whole is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average defense) and Washington will be glad to throw the ball all game long. Oregon does move the ball well offensively (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average
team), but quarterback Matt Moore is careless with the football and has thrown 18 interceptions in 8 games. Washington's defense isn't as bad as their numbers show, as the 6.3 yppl that the Huskies have allowed was against teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team. As you can see by examining the numbers above, Washington's offense (+0.7 yppl) is lightly better than Oregon State's offense (+0.6 yppl) while the Huskies' defense (-0.1 yppl) is better than the Beavers' defense (-0.5 yppl). Washington also isn't as likely to turn the ball over (Stanback has thrown just 5 interceptions all season) and my math model favors the Huskies by 8 points even with Oregon State having a 5.6 points advantage in special teams. Based on the historical results of my math model, Washington has a very profitable 60.9% chance of covering at +3 ½ points and I'll take 3 points or more with Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet.

Downgrade Washington to a Strong Opinion if they became an underdog of less than 3 points.

2 Star Selection
4 pm Pacific Time - rotation #390
**TCU (-7.0) 35 Colorado St. 21
TCU has won all 6 of their conference games and the Horned Frogs can rap up the Mountain West Conference with a win over Colorado State (4-1 in MWC play). The Rams have an outstanding offense, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, but they also have a defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average a combined 5.8 yppl against an average defense). TCU is a more balanced team, with an offense that is 0.3 yppl better than average since Jeff Ballard took over at quarterback 5 ½ games ago (5.6 yppl in Ballard's 5 starts,
against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), and a defense that is 0.6 yppl better than average. The Horned Frogs have an overall advantage of 0.4 yppl in this game, they are likely to commit fewer turnovers since they throw the ball far fewer times per game than the Rams do, they have a 2.6 points advantage in special teams, and they are at home. Overall, my
math model favors TCU by 10 ½ points and the Horned Frogs apply to a solid 82-37-2 ATS late season home favorite situation that plays on teams with 1 loss or less when hosting other good teams. Colorado State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 47-107-2 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on last week's upset win at New Mexico. I realize that the Colorado State is 44-23 ATS in regular season games from game 7 on, but TCU is 18-5 ATS at home when not favored by more than 13 points (2-0 ATS this season) and the Rams have actually played a bit worse in their last two games (game 7 and than they have overall this season - it just hasn't shown up in the final scores because they are +8 in turnovers in those 2 games. I'll lay 7 points or less with TCU in a 2-Star Best Bet and I'll Downgrade TCU to a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite of more than 7 points.

Strong Opinion
9 am Pacific Time - rotation #317
Minnesota (-13.0) 40 INDIANA 21
Minnesota has had a history under coach Glen Mason of beating up on bad teams and struggling against good teams in conference play. The Gophers are just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 conference games against winning teams, but they are 21-9 ATS under Mason when facing a team with a losing record, including 17-3 ATS if they are not favored by more than 16 points (8-0 ATS since 2001). Indiana is an improved team this season, but they are still 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively on a national scale (4.6 yppl against Division 1A opponents who would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team). Minnesota is an impressive 1.6 yppl better than average offensively with quarterback Bryan Cupito running the show(6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average offense ? Cupito missed Minnesota's loss to Wisconsin) and the Gophers are good enough defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) to keep Indiana from staying close in this game. My math model favors the Gophers by 21 points and gives them a 57.4% chance of covering at a line of -13 points based on the historical predictability of my math model. That's good enough to make the Gophers a Strong Opinion in this game at -16 points or less and I'll Upgrade Minnesota to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 11 points or less.

Matt Fargo
FREE PICKS
Alabama vs. Mississippi St. [2005-11-05]
Take Mississippi St. Bulldogs
Reason: Mississippi St. has struggled on offense all season long and that things won’t get easier this Saturday against Alabama. The goal for the Tide this week is to not only win, but to stay healthy and not tip its hat too much. Reason being, Alabama hosts 5th ranked LSU next Saturday so if there is one game that the Tide will hold back, this is it. The Bulldogs have a decent defense and it has gotten better each week, allowing fewer points in each of their last four games.

Alabama has sweated out its last two SEC games and won on a field goal each time including a win at Mississippi who is very similar to the Bulldogs. The Tide scored 35 points at home against overmatched Utah St. last Saturday but has totaled just 19 points in two SEC games after the injury to receiver Tyrone Prothro. It’s evident that Alabama has not been able to stretch the field like it did prior to Prothro’s injury. Prior to Utah St., Alabama had generated 400 yards of offense only once in its last four games.

Mississippi St. ranks seventh in the SEC and 48th in the country against the rush, giving up an average of 135.6 ypg, The Bulldogs are ninth in the league in pass defense, yielding an average of 217.3 ypg. They have allowed 400 total yards only three times this season and two of those efforts came against LSU and Georgia, who gained 402 and 406 yards respectively. They gave up 370 yards to an explosive Houston offense in their last home game and Mississippi St. is giving up 251.8 ypg at home on the season.

Offensively, the Bulldogs turn to a very solid rushing game. Jerious Norwood is one of only three players in the league averaging 100 ypg on the ground. He is closing in on a 1,000-yard season after eclipsing the 1,000-yard barrier last season. Norwood averages 6.4 ypc which is 10th in the country. Alabama is 10th in the country against the run but after allowing 38 ypg in its first three games, the Tide has allowed 140.8 ypg in their last five games, holding just one team to fewer than 100 yards.

With Alabama still undefeated, it brings up a great situation and yet a very simple one. Play against a road team after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins, in weeks 10 through 13. This has been money the last three seasons, going 14-3 ATS (82.3 percent) and is 62-26 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is the time of the year where the undefeated teams are overvalued, especially on the road. A big game looms for Alabama so we can expect a very close one here. Play Mississippi St. Bulldogs One Unit