Boston College –8
The Eagles received an early wake up call last week against Connecticut, escaping with a 24-16 win over the Huskies. This narrow escape will provide a much needed boost this week when the Cardinal come to town. BC tallied only 344 yards on offense with QB Brian St. Pierre throwing for 242 yards with 3 Td’s and 2 INT’s. The Eagles return 9 starters to their offense with the biggest void being the loss of RB William Green. A bright spot came from backup tailback Derrick Knight, who rushed for 100 yards on 17 carries. Knight will not get the start against Stanford however, but should see plenty of action. They will go against a Stanford defense that 52nd in total defense and 100th against the pass. They need to replace 9 starters including all of the linebackers and defensive backs. They will be using a new system under new coach Buddy Teevens and will need to try and stop the always balanced attack of the Eagles.
Stanford will come in without the services of starting QB Chris Lewis, who was suspended for an NCAA violation. Replacing him will be redshirt freshman QB Kyle Matter, who has yet to throw a collegiate pass. Teevens has installed a new, complicated “Florida Fun ‘n Gun” system and throwing a new QB right into the fire might be problematic. Stanford brings back 6 starters, less Lewis, to a team that ranked 13th in the nation in total offense last season. That is due in part to playing in the Pac-10. They did score 38 on BC in their first game last year, but in the other two non-conference games vs. Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, they scored 17 and 14 points respectively. Without Lewis and coming in to play a non-Pac-10 team, points might not be so easy to attain. The Eagles return 8 starters to a defense that ranked 15th in points and 31st in total defense a year ago. Also, BC's defense will be bolstered by the return of senior linebacker Jerome Ledbetter (knee) and senior defensive end Derric Rossy (hamstring).
The new 12 game rule that went into effect this year gave a lot of teams a chance to schedule an earlier game than normal. But Stanford feels the rule places too much emphasis on football; it's the only team in the Pacific 10 Conference with an 11-game schedule. This extra game for the Cardinal could have done wonders. It would have given them to get a look at their new offense (and defense for that matter), especially with all of the new players. It also might have saved Lewis for the BC game, as he could have sat out the first game of the season against some patsy.
Not into trends but for those who follow trends – BC is 19-3 ATS (including the last 9) since ’92 when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 14 or more points. BC lost last year to Stanford 38-22.
Eastern Michigan +23
Definitely see some value in this line, mostly due to the games last week. The Eagles lost to Michigan St. 56-7 while Toledo beat 1-AA Cal Poly 44-16. Taking a look back at last year, the Rockets were favored by 34 in Toledo. Figuring 3 points for home field, that would have made Toledo a 28-point favorite in Eastern Michigan. A 5-point swing from last year to this year doesn’t see like a big enough dropoff for a Rocket team that lost so much. They are replacing TB Chester Taylor, QB Tavares Bolden and their whole defensive line. In all, they return only 10 starters from a team that went 10-2 last year and 20-3 the last 2 seasons. Toledo held Cal Poly to 64 yards rushing, as they were able to move the offensive line without much problem. Things should be a little more difficult for the Rockets going against of much bigger line – Cal Poly averages 262 per man while the Eagles average 290. The size is there on the line, but the experience is not. The Eagles return only one starter to the line but they are going against a green defensive line as well. Also, starting defensive end Frank Ofili hurt his elbow and will not play this week for the Rockets. Getting the ground game moving will be the first priority for Eastern Michigan as they rushed the ball only 20 times for 54 yards against the Spartans.
Eastern Michigan did have some positives from their loss. They committed no turnovers, they had four drives that were eight plays or more and they allowed only three tackles for loss. Head coach Jeff Woodruff estimated that on 13 of the 26 missed tackles his team committed, those accounted for over 200 yards after contact, about 1/3 of the Spartans total yardage. Toledo uses a lot of quick wide receiver screens so it is imperative that the Eagles wrap up or they will see similar results in the yards after contact category. Committing no turnovers against the very physical Spartan team is a big boost. Eastern Michigan finished 95th last year in turnover ratio and obviously needs to protect the ball more this year if they want to improve on their 2-9 record. The level of competition takes a big drop compared to last week so the Eagles will be ready to play a game that they are claiming is winnable. Not sure if they’ll pull off the upset, but they should keep it close.
Navy +17
With Navy’s 38-7 win last week vs. SMU, one of two things are possible. Either Navy is improving or SMU is worse than originally thought. Possibly a little of both as one game can’t give a total picture just yet. After going winless in 2001, the Midshipmen are in the win column early this year, giving them a confidence they haven’t had in a while. Coach Paul Johnson earned his first win as head coach at Navy. Before going to Georgia Southern in 1997, Johnson was the Naval Academy’s offensive coordinator in 1995-1996. He ran the spread option offense and helped them in 1996 to go 9-3 with a bowl win. Last week, they gained 399 yards in offense and ran for 5.4 ypc vs. a Mustang defense that ranked 19th in the nation in total defense last year. A good number for a Midshipmen team that was 98th in total offense in 2001. Whether they can keep it up the whole year is still to be determined but they are in much better shape than a year ago when Georgia Tech came to town and won by 63. This is a team that mentally is better because their coach believes in them and is a true motivator. Johnson said the team played ok, but missed some assignments and still wants to see many improvements. His main focus is for his team to not lose sight in the ultimate goal, which is improving every week and also avoid a letdown.
NC State comes in 2-0 with wins over New Mexico and East Tennessee St. This will be their first trip on the road. The Wolfpack need to replace 5 starters on defense, mostly in their line and linebacking corps. They have been effective stopping the run thus far in their first two games, but this will be the biggest challenge yet. The defense is expected to spend a lot of time on the field going against the spread option. NC State QB Rivers is a solid QB and can get his team down the field. The key for Navy is ball control and keeping him off the field. East Tennessee St. held the ball for over 10 minutes more than the Wolfpack but was putrid on third down going 3-16. NC State has Wake Forest next week in their ACC opener so a slight look ahead is possible.
GLTA!!
Over 53 Mississippi/Memphis
Both teams are coming off wins last week against pretty weak competition. Memphis defeated 1-AA Murray St. 52-6, behind the arm of QB Danny Wimprine who threw for 245 yards on 23-32 passing with 5 TD’s. Wimprine came in to the lineup the middle of last year, replacing Travis Anglin, a two-year starter. Anglin was switched to receiver and caught 6 passes for 72 yards with 2 TD’s. The spread offense that coach Doug West brought in was run to perfection and with the offense having a year of experience with it, it should continue. 8 starters in all return for the offense that averaged 26.7 ppg last season. Wimprine threw for 1,329 yards and 14 TD’s while only starting half of the games last year. The Tigers have 2 quality backs in Dante Brown and DeAngelo Williams that will keep the defense honest. 8 starters also return on the defense that ranked 57th in points, and 68th in total defense. The defense should improve somewhat but will be facing a high-powered offense from Mississippi led by Eli Manning. The defensive backs are inexperienced and will face a big challenge against some experienced wide receivers. The key for Memphis is to provide a big pass rush but the Rebel offensive line averages a whopping 310 pounds. The Rebels return 7 to their offense that played pretty lackluster last weekend against La-Monroe. There is talk that the offense was sandbagging to not show too much, but that doesn’t sound very realistic. They didn’t score until the 2nd quarter but eventually got the ball moving. Manning was 16-30 with 188 yards and 1 TD and 1 INT. The offense was 10th in the country last year with 35.5 ppg and come back very deep and talented. The defense replaces all 4 linemen and likely will be without LB Eddie Strong, a possible All-American candidate, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. The defense ranked 78th in points allowed with 28.2 per game last year. They have installed a new alignment with an 8-man front, which is meant to utilize their speed and help stopping the run, where the Rebels were 107th last year. Both defenses are a couple notches below the others offense so both sides should be able to move it up and down the field to get enough points on the board to go over.
San Diego St. +24
The Aztecs are coming off a tough 16-14 loss to Fresno St. last Thursday. They had a chance to win the game but a 31-yard field goal attempt was blocked. The well talked about Tom Craft no-huddle offense didn’t come out until the second half after San Diego St. was held to 19 first half yards. His plan was to let the offense get comfortable before opening it up. Once it was put into place, the offense gained 259 yards in the second half and almost pulled out the victory. He’s already being second-guessed about why he didn’t use the no-huddle from the beginning, but he wanted to get his team in a position to win, which he did. QB Adam Hall looked comfortable running the no-huddle and threw only one real bad telegraphed pass. The Aztec defense played well, but the Bulldogs were without QB Grady and WR Berrian. They will need to play inspired, hard-nosed football the whole game to have a shot of an upset vs. Colorado.
The Buffaloes come in after a disappointing 19-14 loss to rival Colorado St. Dropping 11 spots in the polls, the Buffs return home to try to get things going. Their rushing game, which averaged 228.5 ypg last year, was held to 170 yards vs. the Rams. They will be without RB Marcus Houston, who suffered a partially torn knee ligament on Saturday. Houston, along with Brown and Purify, provided a good one-two-three punch in the backfield and to keep fresh legs. The defense played well in only giving up 19 points but allowed Colorado St. to drive the ball 81 yards in 8 plays and put the go ahead TD on the board. Last year, the Buffs passing defense ranked 76th in the nation and graduated their two safeties, who had started 62 games between them. At the end of last year, the Colorado defense fell apart, giving up 36, 37 and 38 points in their last 3 games and could struggle against an opened up attack that the Aztecs will use. Against CSU, they implemented a new 4-2 scheme with a “weak safety” which adds an extra DB and takes away a linebacker. The new formation puts 8 in the box and is supposed to make it tough to run against. Barnett stated that they would have to make a change to the new style against the Aztecs. Also note that starters ILB Sean Tufts and SS Rod Snead have been suspended for this game for a violation of team rules.
Southern Miss –3.5
Southern Miss deafeated Jackson St. 55-7 last week while Illinois lost to Missouri 33-20. The Eagles welcomed back the return of RB Derrick Nix, who ran for 77 yards on 16 carries (4.8 ypc) for 3 scores. Nix has been sidelined with kidney problems but is back in the best condition of his life sources say. He became the first running back in school history to run for 1,000 yards in his freshman and sophomore years before injuries and ailments kept him out for the past two seasons. The return of Nix will bolster a rushing offense that ranked 109th last year. The biggest question mark for the offense, which returns 9 starters, is who would replace 3-year starter Jeff Kelly. Mickey D’Angelo played well in his first start, going 13-23 for 273 yards and 1 TD. He will find the going much more difficult against the Illini, but at least he will have a raucous home field crowd on his side. The Illinois defense, ranked 64th in total yards last year, surrendered 420 yards to the Tigers, including a whopping 287 yards rushing, almost double their average from a year ago. The two systems are different, as Missouri ran around the legs of QB Brad Smith, while Southern Miss will go with the power running of Nix.
The Southern Miss defense replaced 9 starters a year ago, fearing that the perennially tough defense would take a slide. They only responded to finish 8th in scoring defense, 11th in total defense, 12th in pass efficiency defense and 13th in rushing defense. They return 8 from last year and will be just as dominant if not better. They will be facing an Illinois offense that still has All-American WR Brandon Lloyd, but a quarterback that is trying to replace Kurt Kittner, the winningest quarterback in school history. Dustin Ward got the start last week and Ron Turner has named him the starter again this week. Ward, who played the first three quarters, completed 9-of-21 passes for 122 yards. He was sacked twice, fumbled the ball away twice, threw an interception and never looked at ease. Going against a defense that is far and above that of Missouri, backup QB Jon Beutjer might be called in sooner than expected. Turner said after the game that Beutjer simply isn’t ready yet and didn’t look good trying to execute the offense in the one quarter he played. The best match up could be Lloyd going against DB Greg Brooks. Lloyd is listed at 6’2” 180 and Brooks is 5’11” 175. Brooks gives up a little height, but is ranked as the No. 16 cornerback in the nation by The Sporting News.
GLTA!!