Navy –2.5
The Midshipmen find themselves in a rare favored role this week. Northwestern comes in at 1-2, with their lone win coming at home last week against Duke 26-21. Duke actually led the game late, but the Wildcats were able to score a TD in the fourth quarter to pull out the win. Northwestern has given up 523, 411 and 438 yards in their first three games, with 890 of those yards being on the ground. The 296 per game average ranks second to last in D-1A. The defense is very young and features nine starters who are freshman or sophomores. They will face a Navy team that is averaging 268 yards per game rushing, good for 7th in the country. Navy is led by junior QB Craig Candeto, who ranks 28th in rushing at over 105 yards per game. He is running the innovative spread offense very well and this offense can move the ball effectively as long as the turnovers are kept to a minimum. Two fumbles led to 14 points against NC State and two blocked punts led to another 14. Northwestern faced an option attack against Air Force, and the one they will face against Navy will have some similarities, but is different for the most part. They run the true triple more than Air Force does, who uses a lot of two back formations and run belly option with the fullback. As long as they can establish the run, which should happen, they can open up some play action for Candeto. They have attempted only 18 passes this year, but are averaging more than 23 yards per completion, so the big play will be there if executed at the correct time. The red zone has been a strong point thus far for Navy. They are 8-8 with 7 touchdowns when getting inside the 20 yard line. Northwestern has allowed opponents to get in the red zone 16 times, allowing 14 scores with 12 of those being touchdowns. The Northwestern offense is young as well, led by a redshirt freshman at quarterback. They have had to replace seven starters from this unit and have struggled through their first three games in getting points on the board. They are ranked 90th in total offense, with only 309 yards per game and are 93rd with the rush. Navy will need to stop this running attack from the Wildcats as they have yielded 182 and 171 yards rushing in their first two games. The Wildcats will be the youngest offensive line that Navy will line up against so far this year, with two juniors, two sophomores and a freshman. Navy will load up the box and try to get pressure on the young QB and make him beat them. The defense has given up points in six of the nine times the opposition has gotten inside the 20 yard line. Northwestern is 6-8 offensively in the red zone with four touchdowns and two field goals. Bottom line is that Navy will run all day, with maybe a few play actions throughout, and they should have no trouble getting through this young defense.
Air Force +9.5
Cal, off a very impressive victory over Michigan St., returns home to take on Air Force. The Falcons come in 2-0 while the Bears are 3-0. Air Force was off last week and has had a couple weeks to digest the new system put in place at Cal by head coach Jeff Tedford. After two games, the Falcons are ranked 25th in the country in total defense at just under 292 yards per game. Although the defense was ranked 105th last year, it’s an experienced defense that returns seven starters from a year ago including a very talented secondary. They moved from a 5-2 defense to a new 4-3, which should take some pressure off of the secondary. Cal is ranked 58th in total offense, but only 86th rushing the ball. QB Kyle Boller has started off great this season, thanks in large part to their defense. The defense has forced 12 turnovers (10 in the first half) in their first three games, setting up scores and a short field for the offense. This has been a big part as to the good early starts Cal has had so far. They have scored 59 points in the first quarter and 91 points in the first half, causing teams to try and play catch up. Air Force had always been very disciplined with the ball; they were ranked 24th last year in turnover margin. The triple option attack that the Falcons use obviously cuts down on interceptions and usually gives them a time of possession advantage. They are ranked 20th in total offense with just under 441 yards per game and 1st in rushing with 369 ypg. Offensive coordinator Chuck Petersen has led the Falcons to 17 30-plus scoring efforts in his 26 games as offensive coordinator. Teams facing Air Force have an advantage if coming off a bye week and Cal didn’t do much if any preparation before this week since they had to tangle with Michigan St. first. It will be interesting to see how Cal reacts if they do not get out to a big lead to start the game; it would be their first such situation. Special teams have always been a factor for Air Force, especially blocking kicks. The Falcons have blocked 76 kicks since 1990 which ranks second nationally to Virginia Tech, who have 80. These obviously cannot be handicapped but there is always the possibility of a score or setting up a score coming this way. For Cal, they have been exceptional in their punt and kick returns but Jemeel Powell suffered a slight knee sprain against Michigan St. and is questionable. He returned a punt 90 yards for a touchdown in that game. The defense also took a hit, as senior starting linebacker John Klotsche, who led the team in tackles last season, may be lost for the season with a knee injury. Also starting free safety Bert Watts suffered a slight knee sprain and is questionable.
Army +26.5
Taking a shot with the Cadets in what should be a good spot. The line opened at 29 and came down immediately. Army comes in off a humiliating loss at Rutgers while the Cardinals are off a tough loss at Colorado St. Turnovers have hurt both teams but more particular Army. They are last in the nation with a –4 turnover margin average. Louisville ranks tied for 100th at –1.67. For Army, the first game it was the fumble; the second it was the interception. Rutgers parlayed all four of Army's miscues into touchdowns. In all, seven of Army's nine turnovers have led directly to 37 opponent points. Even though they are turning the ball over, the Cadets are moving the ball effectively, gaining almost 353 yards per game. They are rushing the ball at 5.1 yards per carry. Louisville is certainly having a down year compared to expectations thus far. The young offensive line has been a big disappointment - they are ranked 96th in rushing offense at just under 107 yards per game. They have also let too much pressure get to Dave Ragone, as he has been sacked 10 times this year and been knocked down numerous times. The Cardinal team isn’t playing with much confidence right now as they head into CUSA play. Coach Smith after the loss to the Rams, ''We've just got to find some answers,'' he said. ''We've got to be able to tighten some things up and change up. We have to get better. That's about all you can do. We're not going to cry about it. Well, we will cry. But you've got to move on, and you've got to get better.'' Not the type of statement that puts a scare into many. Army is led by a freshman quarterback and several freshmen and sophomores at key positions, so they are experiencing the normal growing pains. Feeling here is that Louisville is in a tough spot, coming off a tough loss and playing at home next Thursday night against Florida St. They are looking to get out with a win and start focusing on the Seminoles, if they haven’t started that already. At this point, Army doesn’t have much to lose and all of the pressure is squarely on Louisville. If Army can cut down on the turnovers just somewhat, they should be ok to stay within the number.
Georgia Tech – 9.5
Georgia Tech heads back home after a tough loss at Clemson last week. They were able to force four turnovers but failed to convert any of them into points. BYU travels for the second week in a row after they were handed their first loss of the season at Nevada last week. BYU once again ranks near the bottom in total defense. They are 105th in the country, giving up 436 yards per game. On the opposite end, Georgia Tech is 22nd in total defense, giving up just under 282 ypg. The BYU offense is averaging 455 yards per game, but this is the toughest defense they have encountered thus far. QB Bret Engemann, who was 6-16 against Nevada in the first half, was benched in favor Lance Pendleton for the second half. Expect Engemann to be back but expect his mentality not to. He watched from the sidelines as BYU used poor clock management down the stretch. Tech Coach Chan Gailey, known for his defense, must find a way to get pressure on the QB but at the same time, not give up the big play, something BYU has been successful at in the past. They also have to be aware of RB Marcus Whalen, who with a good game can open up the passing attack even more. Gailey has always been known for putting good game plans together defensively and he is considering making changes to their nickel and dime packages. By being able to recognize the BYU formations, he can get the correct scheme going. Georgia Tech will need to get Tony Hollings into the game more than they did last week. Hollings had only one carry before halftime, but still finished with 147 yards and two touchdowns. BYU gives up an average of 163 yards per game on the ground and the Yellow Jackets will need to get this started in order to get some of the pressure off QB A.J. Suggs. In total Georgia Tech runs for over 202 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry. Suggs has averaged 190 yards passing in the first three games and he could find the going much easier than he did against Clemson. BYU gave up 410 yards passing last week and are 108th overall this year. Also, BYU is playing very undisciplined ball to start the year. They are averaging over 12 penalties per game for over 108 yards. If the game turns into a shootout, Georgia Tech may not have a chance, but with their experienced and solid defense, the Jackets should be able to contain the offense enough to get an easy victory.
Iowa –22
The Hawkeyes are coming off a difficult loss to in-state rival Iowa St. last weekend 36-31. Iowa had a 24-7 lead before the Cyclones scored 29 unanswered points to put the game away. Utah St. picked up their first win of the year against 1-AA Idaho St. 38-33. Even with the win, they gave up 422 yards to the Bengals. They were able to intercept four passes and return a fumble for a touchdown to help their cause. Things will be a little more difficult in Ames. Iowa brings in the 9th ranked total offense in the nation along with the 9th ranked rushing offense at 262 yards per game and over 6 yards per carry. The ground game is led by Fred Russell, who is 4th in the country in rushing with 153 yards per game. QB Brad Banks is 5th in the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 175.8. This offense is very strong and well balanced and is averaging 39 points per game through their first three games. The defense of the Aggies shouldn’t give them much of a problem. They are 109th in rushing defense, giving up over 241 yards per game. Overall, they are 101st in total yards and 96th in scoring defense, giving up 429 yards and 33 points respectively. The defense of Iowa let the Cyclones come back last week and they will be out to prove themselves this week. The Hawkeye rushing defense is one of the best in the country, ranked 7th giving up a paltry 55 yards per game. The Aggies, with the loss of All-American RB Emmett White, are having a fit running the ball this year. They are gaining only 74 yards on the ground per game, good for 108th in the nation. The only concern would be the passing game led by QB Jose Fuentes. They are averaging 250 yards per game through the air while the Hawkeyes are giving up 333 per game, dead last in the country. In Iowa’s defense, they have faced three top quarterbacks in Charlie Frye from Akron (29th in passing efficiency), Ben Roethlisberger from Miami Ohio and Seneca Wallace from Iowa St. (9th in passing efficiency). Iowa has Penn St. next week, but due to their loss last week, it’s doubtful they will be looking ahead. The loss hit the team hard, but expect a strong bounce back against an overmatched Utah St. team.
Kent +11
The two best freshman quarterbacks in the MAC last year square off for the second time. Last year, Kent took the game 24-20 and QB Joshua Cribbs out dueled Miami QB Ben Roethlisberger. Cribbs ran for 151 yards on 16 carries for 2 TD’s while Roethlisberger was 20-36 for 238 yards with 1 TD and 2 INT’s. The rematch should be just as exciting. Kent has the momentum coming in; having won seven of their last nine games dating back to last year. In 2002, Kent is 2nd in the country in rushing offense with 314 yards per game and a very tough 6.68 yards per carry, good enough to lead the nation. Overall, they rank 12th in total offense. Although the schedule hasn’t been the toughest, they did face a very good Ohio St. rushing defense. Comparing the competition the Buckeyes have faced, Kent did the most damage to their rush defense. They gained 3.8 yards per carry, and compared to Texas Tech (1.6) and Washington St. (.77), that is pretty impressive. Cribbs is also out to prove himself yet again. He beat Roethlisberger last year, but didn’t beat him for the MAC Freshman of the Year Award. As a freshman, Cribbs became the first MC player to run and pass for over 1,000 yards in a season and became the first freshman to do it in NCAA history. The Golden Flashes played lethargic last week against Cal Poly, narrowly escaping with a win. Coach Dean Pees admitted that the team showed no emotion, including both payers and coaches. Except a more fired up team this week as MAC play begins. Miami Ohio comes in 107th in total defense, a lot of which can be attributed to their schedule – North Carolina, Iowa and LSU. They do have a great QB in Roethlisberger and the difficult scheduling will help them throughout the year. They come in 87th in total offense and 110th in rushing offense, gaining only 73 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry on the ground. Last year against Kent, they were held to –1 yards rushing on 31 carries. This year, the Kent rushing defense in middle of the road, ranked 53rd in the country but did a decent job against Ohio St.’s Maurice Clarett, who is averaging 7.4 ypc. He was held to 68 yards on 12 rushes for 5.6 ypc. Not great numbers for the defense, but better than anyone else has accomplished this year. Look for a strong effort from the Flashes after last weeks near disaster.
Wake Forest +9.5
The Deacons are off to a disappointing 1-2 start but not playing as bad as the record indicates. A bad call in OT cost them a loss at Northern Illinois and they played NC State pretty even in their loss last week, but turnovers did them in since they had no turnovers in their first two games. Wake comes in 20th in the nation in rushing offense with almost 225 yards per game and 4.6 ypc. They averaged 51 carries per game going into last week and ran the ball only 44 times, mostly due to playing catch up. The loss to the Wolfpack was the first game since September 29th of last year that was decided by more than a TD. They will be facing a Purdue defense that ranks 27th against the rush, giving up just under 102 yards per game. Their only real test on the ground came at Notre Dame, where they gave up 153 yards. In their other two games against Illinois St. and Western Michigan, they were run on a total of only 59 times in the two games combined. The defense will be busy this week trying to contain the run, by far their biggest test in the young season. Wake needs to stay out of long third down situations and prevent turning the ball over. If successful, long, clock-eating drives will keep the Purdue offense off the field. The Purdue offense ranks 29th in the nation at 410 yards per game. Take out their 556-yard performance against 1-AA Illinois St. and they would be sitting around 80th with 338 yards per game. They were out gained by Western Michigan last week and needed a late score to pull out the win. The pass defense of Wake Forest played well against NC St., limiting Philip Rivers to 223 yards passing. The Deacons, who deploy a 3-3-5 defense featuring five defensive backs, are faster and quicker than they've been most seasons. Their main threat will be John Standeford, who leads the team with 16 catches for 339 yards. After Standeford, there is a pretty big dropoff, so keying on him is important. They must also keep an eye on Joey Harris, who has two 100-yard rushing games this year, but was held to 48 yards against Western Michigan. There is only a 2.5-point difference in the lines from last week compared to this week against Wake Forest, so there is some value with a line that is slightly inflated this week.
GLTA!!