Akron +10
The Zips come in at 0-4 and look to get their first conference win of the year. Akron played a good game at Virginia last week. They out gained the Cavaliers 495-414 and had 8 more first downs, but two interceptions by the Zips, a blocked punt and a turnover on downs led to 28 points for Virginia. QB Charlie Frye set career highs last week for completions, attempts and yards as he went 27-47 for 336 yards. The offense is ranked 49th in the country with 387 ypg and 14th in passing offense with over 290 ypg. The Miami Ohio passing defense isn’t faring too well at 98th, giving up over 253 ypg and the overall defense is 96th, yielding over 413 ypg and over 6 ypp. Frye could come out and have another big game, but they will need RB’s Payne and Hendry to get some yards on the ground. The two are averaging a disappointing 3.4 ypc, but better than the overall team mark of 2.6 ypc. The Miami rushing defense could help things for the Zips as they are ranked 74th, giving up 160 ypg and 4.5 ypc. The offense has committed 11 turnovers, including 8 interceptions, but backups have thrown 3 of those. Miami had forced 12 turnovers this season but have scored only 23 points off of those. Miami comes in off a win over Kent to get their first conference victory of the year. The offense ranks 82nd overall gaining just under 334 ypg. They will once again be without starting RB Cal Murray, but Luke Clemens has done a good job filling in. The Zips need to be weary of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is having another good season, but is not in the top 50 in passing efficiency while Frye is ranked 35th. He is always a threat but the Zips passing defense has played very well against some good passing teams. They are ranked 42nd, giving up 191 ypg. The number can be considered low because of their first two games against Iowa and Maryland, who got big leads and didn’t throw the ball much. These teams have historically played close games in recent years and this year shouldn’t be much different. Akron has the offense to play with the Redhawks and as long as they keep the turnovers down, they can pull out the outright win.
Iowa +8
The Hawkeyes come in with a good angle of being the better rushing team and having the better run defense. Iowa welcomes back RB Fred Russell, who missed the last game with a shoulder injury. The team is 5th in the country with 272 ypg and 6.2 ypc, which ranks 3rd. The Penn St. rush defense comes in 40th giving up 119 ypg and 3.6 ypc. However, they have faced two teams who rely on the pass first in Central Florida and Louisiana Tech. The one team that they did play who relies on the rush first was Nebraska, who ran for 252 yards and 5.6 ypc on the Nittany Lions. Even though the game ended up being a rout, most of those yards came when the game was still close. Overall, Iowa is ranked 4th in offense with over 488 ypg and over 7 ypp, tops in the nation. The Penn St. defense ranks 89th overall, giving up over 307 ypg. Penn St. has been fortunate to force turnovers in their first three games, getting nine takeaways, with seven of those being interceptions. Iowa is led by QB Brad Banks, who is 11th in pass efficiency and has yet to throw an interception this year. If the running game can continue to succeed as it has thus far this year, which it should, Banks will be able to use his play action and make some plays through the air. Penn St. brings in a very good rushing game themselves, ranked 21st in the country with an average of over 222 ypg. They will be facing the 3rd ranked rushing defense, giving up a meager 47 ypg. Like Penn St., the Hawkeyes haven’t faced the greatest rushing teams but they did hold a good rushing team in Iowa St. to 85 yards with a 2.2 ypc average. The defense gets back SS Bob Sanders this week, who leads the team with 19 solo tackles in only three games. Penn St. will need to throw the ball against the defense that ranks 114th in yards given up, but rank better in passing efficiency defense at 89th. A lot of the yards have come late in games when the game was already decided as well as the comeback by Iowa St. Penn St. has the 60th best passing offense with 207 ypg, but have thrown only 73 times, the 13th least in the country. A lot of this is due to not needing to throw the ball because of their big leads and this could hurt them if they are put in a lot of throwing situations. The Hawkeyes also have the advantage in the kicking game. Iowa K Nate Kaeding is perfect on the year, going 19-19 in extra points and 8-8 in field goals, including a 51-yarder. Anything over a touchdown is an added bonus but hopefully it won’t need to come down to that.
Nevada +12
The Wolfpack are playing with confidence right now and still don’t seem to be getting any respect. They lost to Washington St. in a game that was much closer than the score indicates and then went on to beat BYU and Rice. They now face Colorado St., who was off last week. The Nevada offense is moving the ball with much success, even without RB Chance Kretschmer, who has been out the last two games. The passing offense has taken over, led by QB Zack Threadgill. They are 4th in the nation, averaging over 330 ypg and Threadgill is 4th in passing efficiency with a 170 rating. He is completing nearly 73% of his passes, which is tops in D-1 for quarterbacks. Overall, the offense is 14th, gaining over 448 yards per game. The Colorado St. defense is 81st, yielding almost 383 yards per contest. They faced a potent passing attack in Louisville two weeks ago and gave up 293 yards to Dave Ragone and 360 overall. They will be missing starting LB Doug Heald, who will be out for a few weeks after spraining a knee against Louisville. The obvious key for the Rams is to stop Threadgill, which could open up some holes for RB Matt Milton, who is averaging 3.8 ypc. Don’t be surprised to see a good game from Milton against the Rams defense that is giving up 169 ypg and has given up 11 rushing touchdowns this year. Milton ran for a season high 94 yards against BYU after Kretschmer left the game. On defense, Nevada will need to stop Cecil Sapp and will be keying on stopping the run. Bradlee Van Pelt hasn’t shown much throwing the ball this year as he’s not even in the top 50 in pass efficiency – he is more dangerous with his legs. The defense has improved immensely from a year ago where they ranked under 100 in all defensive categories. This year they have improved to 69th in total defense, 70th in scoring defense and 40th in passing defense; good numbers considering the competition of Washington St., BYU and Rice. The experience that the ten returning defensive players have gotten over the last three years is paying off. Expect Sapp to get his yards but also expect Nevada to get their points and stay within the generous number.
Rice +8.5
Fresno St. is playing their third road game in four weeks, with a bye week in-between the first and second games. The Bulldogs are 1-3 and winless on the road and could very well be 0-4 were it not for a blocked field goal against San Diego St. They will still be without the services of QB Jeff Grady, who is available but will not start, and WR Bernard Berrian, out since week 1. Their offense is ranked 95th overall and have yet to put up more than 24 points in any of their four games. Rice comes in with the 99th ranked defense, giving up almost 424 ypg. The three offenses they have faced are all superior to that of the Bulldogs, but Rice will still need to buckle down to try and improve their 27 ppg average. The key for the defense will be the Rice offense. The normally potent rushing attack of the Owls hasn’t put up the numbers of past teams, but are still ranked 24th with over 217 ypg. They will be facing a Fresno defense that is 81st against the pass, 72nd against the run and 84th overall. If they can keep the offense on the field as long as possible, it obviously lessens the chances of the defense allowing a lot of points. The triple option can keep the defense off the field with some long, sustained drives. A much better Bulldog team was favored by 17 a year ago at Fresno, which is roughly a 2-point difference with the venue switch. Although this Rice team is also inferior to last year’s squad, for Fresno to be favored by 9 points on the road does not make sense. Yes, Rice is winless but the line is inflated reflecting that. A favorable trend for the Owls is that they are 15-4 ATS as home underdogs since 1992. Not a trend player here but an impressive number nonetheless.
San Diego St. +14
Taking another shot with the high-powered offense of the Aztecs. San Diego St. has the second highest passing attack in the country with 405 ypg. QB Adam Hall has found his grove in the last two games, throwing for 511 yards with 3 TD’s and 1 INT against Arizona St. and 505 yards with 5 TD’s and 0 INT’s against Idaho. He has an overall rating of 139.9 with 9 TD’s and 2 INT’s. The running game has been improving recently with James Truvillion rushing for 74 yards against the Sun Devils and Michael Franklin rushing for 82 yards against Idaho. They don’t get the touches needed to be a powerful attack but they do need to be recognized by the Bruins. The UCLA defense ranks 88th overall, giving up 397 ypg and they gave up 471 yards to Colorado last week, including 325 yards on the ground. This will be the biggest test for the Bruins secondary thus far. They gave up 350 passing yards to Oklahoma St. two weeks ago, but intercepted the Cowboys 4 times causing minimal damage. They are led by DB Ricky Manning, who will be trying to put a hold on J.R. Tolver, the nations leading receiver. The Bruin secondary will be doing some reshuffling to try and combat the passing of the Aztecs. Matt Ware will move from free safety to cornerback and match up against WR Kassim Osgood. Sophomore Ben Emanuel will move from strong safety to free safety, and freshman Jarrad Page will play strong safety, making his first start. The different assignments might take some getting used to for the players and allow San Diego St. to get off to a quick start. The San Diego St. defense ranks just ahead of UCLA at 87th, giving up 390 ypg. The offense of the Bruins is middle of the road, ranked 57th with 377 ypg. Against Oklahoma St., they were able to complete long passes, but opted to go for more ball control throws against Colorado, but couldn’t shake any tackles to get any yardage after the catch. San Diego St. should be able to move the ball fairly well and this is a hungry team with a hungry coach looking for their first win. They have been in all of their games thus far, but couldn’t clear the last hurdle in any of them. A win here is a possibility but the two-touchdown head start is much better. UCLA opens PAC-10 play next week with a trip to Corvallis to take on Oregon St.
West Virginia –7
The Mountaineers come back home for the first time in September and bring the nation’s 3rd ranked offense with them. They were able to hold off a strong comeback from Cincinnati two weeks ago to improve their record to 2-1. Led by RB Avon Cobourne, the offense rushes for 282 ypg and over 5.6 ypc and overall, the offense is gaining 494 total yards per game. The no-huddle offense that coach Rich Rodriguez installed last year was very inconsistent but with seven starters back from that unit, things are coming together. Rasheed Marshall, an athletic and mobile quarterback, fits in very well in this offense. He has yet to throw an interception this year and is second on the team in rushing, averaging over 54 ypg. East Carolina comes in to Morgantown with a 1-2 record, getting their lone victory two weeks ago at home against Tulane. Both losses came on the road to ACC teams Duke and Wake Forest. The Pirate defense is ranked 42nd in the country but have faced the 96th and 81st ranked offenses in Duke and Tulane respectively. Adding together the rushing averages of Duke and Tulane still doesn’t equal the average output of West Virginia (272-282). The defense will be concentrating on stopping Cobourne and the running game but will need to be aware of trying to keep Marshall in the pocket, which will be difficult. Pirate QB Paul Troth shook off his interception problems by throwing none against Tulane after throwing seven in his first two games. West Virginia has picked off three balls in their first three games and is ranked 50th in turnover ratio compared to 114th for the Pirates. The defense isn’t big as it has been in the past but it is quicker than past editions. The offense of the Pirates ranks 105th overall, putting up only 289 yards of offense per game. West Virginia is 48th overall in defense, giving up 336 ypg. The offense took a hit, losing C Doug White for the next two games and will be starting sophomore Hagen Mason in his place. Feeling here is that West Virginia offense will be on all cylinders in their first home game in a month and should easily put enough on the board to get the cover.
GL!