Air Force –4.5
Ranked for the first time since 1999, the Falcons host BYU after destroying Navy last weekend. BYU, held in check in the first half last week against Utah St., scored the only 28 points in the second half to win by one. This is the Cougars first Mountain West game while Air Force sits atop the conference at 2-0. Obviously a big game for both teams, but a win by the Flyboys puts them in pretty good position with only Colorado St. remaining on their schedule being the most difficult conference opponent. Air Force has Notre Dame coming to town next weekend but don’t expect a look ahead here. Air Force will be looking to make up for the 30 point drubbing at the hands of BYU last season. They came into that game at 4-1, but after the loss, they went 2-4 the rest of the way. Air Force is once again leading the nation in rushing, averaging just under 330 ypg and 5.4 ypc. The BYU rush defense is ranked 79th, allowing 165 ypg and 4.6 ypc. The passing defense of the Cougars is ranked 97th, giving up 254 ypg. Although Air Force has only attempted 52 passes this year, they might try to take advantage of the soft pass defense with some play action. BYU should get back CB Jernaro Gilford to help, who is listed as probable, but hasn’t played yet this season. The Air Force defense has been a pleasant surprise thus far. They are ranked 28th is total defense, giving up 311 ypg and only 17.6 ppg, good for 21st in the country. The BYU offense is ranked 10th with 411 ypg, but are only tied for 69th with 5.2 ypp. Last year when the offense was ranked 1st, they averaged 7.1 ypp, showing that the big plays aren’t there this year. Both teams do a good job in turnover differential. Air Force has a +1 and BYU has a +1.2. BYU has forced 16 turnovers this year, but 13 of those have been interceptions, which shouldn’t be the case this week. Bottom line, the Falcons shouldn’t let up this week, even with the Irish coming to town next week. They have plenty of motivation and have plenty of revenge.
Arkansas St. +28
We will be playing against another team still celebrating from a big win last week. Mississippi defeated Florida 17-14 last week in a huge game for the school and for the conference. The Rebels are in the middle of an SEC sandwich, with Alabama next week. A good situation here against a team still on an emotional high with a look ahead the following week. Arkansas St, has been improving each week. We went with them last week against Middle Tennessee St. and they won the game outright. The Indians have now won their last three games and four of their last five after an 0-3 start. The offense has been running the ball well as witnessed last week, gaining 229 yards on 42 carries (5.5 ypc). Overall, the rushing offense ranks 40th, averaging almost 174 ypg. The Rebels defense ranks 21st against the run, giving up only 105 ypg and 3.1 ypc. But how fired up will this defense be? Not too much is our thinking. QB Eli Manning is the guy to stop for the Indians defense. The passing attack averages 257 ypg, good for 32nd in the country. Arkansas St. has a good pass defense to counter, as they are allowing only 179 ypg, which ranks 25th. Because the offense relies on Manning so much, the rushing game of Mississippi suffers, as they are only ranked 86th, averaging 123 ypg and 3.6 ypc. Since giving up 288 yards to Virginia Tech in their opener, Arkansas St. has done a solid jib stopping the run, allowing an average of 138 ypg and 3.4 ypc. The Indians have been running the ball more (they only threw the ball 13 times lat week) and have been doing it effectively. The longer the offense is on the field, the longer the defense can rest and the longer Eli Manning is off the field. With Mississippi not really looking at this game with much fire, starting off with a four-touchdown lead is big as the Indians should be able to keep this one close enough.
Texas A&M –20
Hate to lay this many on the road, but this is a very good spot for the Aggies. Coming off a very disappointing loss to Texas Tech last week in overtime, they will try to rebound against a Baylor team that won its first conference game in 30 tries. Texas A&M allowed 24 fourth quarter points to Texas Tech and then missed an extra point in overtime, letting the Red Raiders win by a point. With Baylor this week and Kansas next week, the Aggies have two games they need to win before they meet Nebraska on October 26th. The Bears, winners of their first conference game in four years, are still celebrating. Fans stormed the field and the goal posts were torn down – something this school hasn’t seen in some time, if ever. The Bears have three wins; against 1-AA Samford and two 1-A bottom feeders in Kansas and Tulsa. The Baylor rushing offense is ranked 70th in the country, gaining under 144 ypg and 3.7 ypc. They will face one of the stringent rush defenses in the country. The Aggies are ranked 3rd, giving up only 69 ypg and 2.2 ypc. Baylor will need to throw the ball to make anything happen. They rank 39th in passing offense, averaging 253 ypg but have 9 interceptions to go along with 7 touchdowns. Texas A&M is ranked 75th in yards given up with 227 ypg but only give up 6 ypa, good for 25th overall. Offensively, Texas A&M is starting to open things up as witnessed last week by QB Dustin Long’s 366 yards and 7 touchdown passes. Overall, the Aggies are ranked 68th in offense, with 364 ypg. Very middle of the road numbers, but they have faced two of the tougher defenses in the country - #5 Virginia Tech and #8 Pittsburgh. Baylor is ranked 44th in total defense, allowing 345 ypg, but as stated above, against three pretty bad teams. They are giving up double the amount of points as the Aggies are. Strength of schedule comparisons show Texas A&M with a much more difficult schedule – 30th vs. 136th and 18th vs. 119th from two different reliable rankings. Turnover margin also greatly favors Texas A&M as they are 11th nationally with a +1.6 ratio and Baylor ranks 113th with a –2. With Oklahoma and Texas both in the Big 12 South, every game counts for the Aggies from here on out. With Kansas on deck, there will be no look ahead, so expect maximum effort Saturday.
Under 63.5 Cincinnati/Tulane
Based on ppg averages the number for this comes in at 54. Looking into these numbers further, there are additional points to back this number up. Taking a look at the stat ‘yards per point’ (yppt) can give a better indication of how well teams get points on the board or how well they allow points on defense. With 5 or 6 games in the books for most teams, we have some pretty good numbers to go by. First an overview of how this can affect the totals. The national average for yppt is 13.78, meaning a team scores a point for every 13.78 yards gained or given up. Taking a look at the offense first, the lower the number, the more efficient a team is getting points on the board, meaning when they move the ball, they tend to score. The range for all 117 teams is from 6.65 (San Jose St.) to 38.03 (North Texas). Taking San Jose St. as an example, they average 46.55 yards for every touchdown they score (6.65 x 7 points). This could mean many things. They could be good at takeaways or have good special teams, getting scores that way. They could be starting from a short field a lot of times, due to a good defense or good return teams. Now one would think that because of such a low ratio, the Spartans must be scoring a ton of points. Not necessarily. They are averaging just over 33 ppg, which is only ranked 31st in the country. The top 5 ratios rank in points scored – 31st, 22nd, 79th, 7th and 4th. Bowling Green, who leads the country in ppg at 50.75, are ranked 19th with a 10.35 yppt, still a very good average. On defense, it’s just the opposite. The higher the number, the better the defense is at not letting teams get points on the board. The range is from 34.38 (Virginia Tech) to 8.71 (Army). For every 7 points Virginia Tech allows, they are giving up 241 yards. Meaning, they are getting turnovers at the correct time, holding teams to field goals instead of touchdowns, stopping teams on downs, etc. Now obviously there wouldn’t be much value in Virginia Tech since they are one of the lowest scoring defensive teams in the country and the number will be set low. The value is finding teams where their ppg and yppt ratios are on opposite ends (or far enough apart) of each other to get value from the total given. Looking at Tulane and Cincinnati on offense, Tulane has an 18.31 yppt average, while Cincinnati is at 14.00. Both teams are higher than the median and tend to take a lot of yards to get points on the board. On defense, Tulane is 14.83, slightly higher than the average and Cincinnati is 13.59, right around the average. Neither team has a tendency for giving up quick scores defensively, nor scoring quickly on offense making the big posted number look appealing to go under.
UNLV –5
New Mexico first lost leading RB Quincy Wright, now they must deal without QB and team leader Casey Kelly. Kelly fractured his forearm in their 49-0 loss to Texas Tech on September 27th. True freshman Kole McKamey was supposed to get the start in Kelly’s place, but he has been suspended for the UNLV game. Now starting will be senior Justin Millea, who has very limited experience. Millea just found out Wednesday he will be starting, so he hasn’t taken many snaps in practice and hasn’t worked much with the first team. Even with Kelly in the offense, the passing game has been anything but good. The Lobos rank 102nd in passing offense with 153 ypg and are 111th in the country with a 5.1 ypa average. Without Wright in the lineup, the rushing game takes a big step down. Freshman DonTrell Moore will most likely get the start in his place. The team is averaging 147 ypg and 4.3 ypc rushing, but most of that was with Wright in the starting lineup. The Rebel defense has played well thus far ranked 47th overall, allowing 350 ypg. The strength is their rushing defense, which is ranked 16th in the country, giving up 99 ypg and 2.9 ypc. On offense, UNLV has a very good rushing attack, averaging over 205 ypg and 4.8 ypc. The Lobos rushing defense, normally the strength of this team that allowed 87 ypg last year, is giving up almost 148 ypg and 3.5 ypc this year. Overall the defense is allowing 365 ypg. Feeling here is that the Rebels will do a good job stopping the run and put a ton of pressure on Millea in his first start on the road.
USC –12.5
The Trojans will try to get back on track after their overtime loss last week at Washington St. USC missed a 51-yard field goal in overtime, while the Cougars were able to hit a 36-yard field goal to tie the game and then a 35-yarder to win it in overtime. Cal went on the road and defeated Washington last week 34-17. Washington actually out gained Cal 441-391 and had 9 more first downs, but committed three costly turnovers that led to 14 Cal points. The defense let the Trojans down last week, but coming back home will help their cause. The USC defense ranks 4th overall in the country, allowing 267 ypg and only 4.3 ypp. The strength is their passing defense, which is 7th, giving up only 144 ypg and 5.4 ypa. The loss of SS Troy Polamalu hurts, as he is listed as questionable this week with a high ankle sprain. But, taking his spot in case he can’t go is sophomore Jason Leach. Coach Pete Carroll indicated there isn't a dramatic drop-off in ability with Leach at strong safety and Leach leads USC with two interceptions. Cal comes in with a potent passing attack, but will have their hands full. They average 272 ypg but will face their toughest passing defense to date. Cal is 90th in the country in rushing, averaging 118 ypg so the majority of the offense falls onto QB Kyle Boller to try and move the ball against one of the nations best. Offensively for the Trojans, they are led by QB Carson Palmer, who has yet to live up to his star billing, but is having his best year as a Trojan thus far. The passing offense is 25th in the country, averaging 269 ypg and Palmer has tossed seven touchdowns and four interceptions. The Cal pass defense is not their strong point, as they are ranked 109th, allowing 274 ypg and 7.6 ypa. The rushing game will need to get a boost since it hasn’t lived up to the expectations. They are averaging 105 ypg and 2.8 ypc. The Cal rushing defense is average, allowing 129 ypg and 3.4 ypc so USC should be able to get something going on the ground, taking some of the pressure off of Palmer. Cal was able to pull off the upset last week due to turnovers but this week may not be so lucky. Both teams take good care of the ball and both have a + turnover ratio. Look for the Trojan defense to prove themselves this week after last week’s meltdown and expect the Trojan offense to improve as well against a sub par Cal defense.
Washington –14
Both teams come in at 0-1 in the Pac-10, both losing their openers last weekend at home. The Huskies lost to Cal last week despite out gaining them 441-391 and having 9 more first downs, but they committed three costly turnovers that led to 14 points. Both turnovers that led to the two Cal touchdowns were committed inside their own 10-yard line. Arizona lost to a tough Oregon team and now takes to the road for only the second time this year. They lost their first road game against Wisconsin 31-10 where they allowed 425 yards to the Badgers. The injured list continues to grow for the Wildcats. The defense is saddled with injuries with seven players from the unit that are questionable to doubtful. Also, RB Clarence Farmer is out for the season. Farmer was responsible for Arizona’s only touchdown against Wisconsin, a 70-yard run. The Huskies come in with the 3rd ranked offense, averaging 491 ypg and almost 34 ppg. The biggest disappointment for the Huskies has been their rushing game, where they are only averaging 103 ypg and 2.9 ypc. RB Rich Alexis, who only had one carry for 3 yards against Cal and has been hampered with an ankle injury, will be back this week. Even though the offense has been moving the ball, a productive running game will help that much more. Arizona is 59th in total offense, averaging 381 ypg, but their rushing offense is a big disappointment. They are 109th, averaging 90 ypg and 2.5 ypc. The loss of Farmer is huge as they only gained 30 yards on 27 carries last week against Oregon in his first game out. Washington will be out trying to stop the pass against the Wildcats passing offense that ranks 14th, averaging 290 ypg. The Huskies pass defense is only 91st, giving up almost 250 ypg, but looking into this further shows that a lot of these yards came late in games against Wyoming and Idaho after the game was well decided. This is a big game for Washington to get back to .500 in the conference with a game at USC next week.