Arkansas St. +8.5
Riding the Indians, 4-4 (2-0 Sun Belt), for the third straight week. A step up in class last week brought them back to earth although they were in the game for the majority of it, at least from a cover standpoint. Arkansas St., down 38-10, recovered a fumble at the Rebel 32 but couldn’t capitalize. Mississippi then intercepted the ball back and drove for the TD and cover. The Indians then threw an interception two plays later that Mississippi converted into another touchdown, blowing any chance of a backdoor cover. North Texas, 1-5 (0-0 Sun Belt), lost their last game to South Florida two weeks ago 24-17. South Florida never trailed and held the Mean Green to 198 yards and 12 first downs. North Texas also committed five turnovers. South Florida gained 432 yards of offense and the score could have been much worse if it wasn’t for their 17 penalties for 137 yards. Arkansas St. will come into this game trying to run against North Texas. They are averaging 169 ypg and 4.2 ypc. The North Texas defense is solid, but it is their passing defense that makes them so tough. They are ranked 64th against the run, allowing 149 ypg and 3.5 ypc. Don’t expect Elliott Jacobs to put the ball through the air much. North Texas ranks dead last in 1-A in total offense, averaging only 235 ypg and also rank dead last in points scored with 11 ppg. Arkansas St. ranks a respectable 54th in total defense, allowing 360 ypg. North Texas has played a more difficult schedule, so the points and yards will be down due to that fact. Nevertheless, a team that averages 11 ppg should not be favored by 8.5 on the road in their first conference game. North Texas was the champs of the Sun Belt a year ago, so Arkansas St. will be out to prove something as well as give a little payback to their 45-0 drubbing from a year ago at North Texas. An interesting trend here also. Bet on home dogs of between 7 ½ and 14 points against a team coming off a bye (48-20 70.6%).
Central Michigan +9.5
The Chippewas come in 3-3 (1-1 MAC) and losers of their last three games. Two of those, with the exception of the Boston College game, they were very competitive. Three games ago against Indiana, Central Michigan had a 13-point lead in the 3rd quarter, but a fumble at their own 12-yard line followed by a safety cut the lead to 4 points. A punt and then a missed field goal set up the last two touchdowns for Indiana. Last week against Bowling Green, Central Michigan out gained the Falcons 441-404 but Bowling Green was able to score on a blocked punt to take their first lead and not give it back. They were down by as many as 24 points, but kept fighting to make the game respectable. Northern Illinois comes in at 4-3 (3-0 MAC) and off a very impressive come from behind win against Miami Ohio as the Huskies put up 34 fourth quarter points. Miami had 14 more first downs and 58 more yards. The Redhawks had a 27-7 late 3rd quarter lead but Northern Illinois scored touchdowns on their last five possessions to pull out the win. This sets up a spot for a huge letdown. Central Michigan has a very potent offense, ranked 23rd in the country with 429 ypg and 5.1 ypp. They rely mostly on the run, where they are averaging 210 ypg and 4.3 ypc. They are led by a very solid back in Robbie Mixon, who is 4th in the MAC with 758 yards. He is averaging a very good 4.8 ypc. Northern Illinois will defend with the 91st ranked overall defense and 60th ranked rushing defense, allowing 146 ypg and 3.6 ypc. On offense, the Huskies rely on their running game as well. They are 30th in the country with 193 ypg and 4.4 ypc. They do not have much of a passing attack, where they are ranked 85th with 183 ypg. The Chippewas defend the run fairly well, ranked 50th, allowing 137 ypg. They do have trouble with passing teams, as they are ranked 104th but the Huskies will not take advantage of that because they have a hot RB in Michael Turner and most likely will utilize him as much as possible. He has accumulated 45% of the team’s offensive yards thus far and that is with limited action in their first game against Wake Forest. Basically it comes down to control Turner and you can control the whole offense. Neither team has done a good job with turnovers, so there is no advantage for either side. Look for Central Michigan with the more balanced offense be more productive in this game and look for Northern Illinois to at least start the game slow after their exciting game last week.
Navy +28.5
BC hosts Navy after coming off a home loss to Virginia Tech on October 10th. The Eagles scored a late touchdown to make the game close but they did have plenty of chances in the first half in which they messed up - two personal foul penalties and a fumble in the Hokies endzone turned into a 21-point swing. Navy comes off a tough loss on Saturday to Rice 17-10. The Midshipmen run defense played well to keep the game close, but the loss of QB Craig Candeto hurt the offense. Candeto is probable for the game against BC. Navy averages 254 ypg on the ground, 8th in the country, and 4.8 ypc. The Boston College run defense is allowing 155 ypg and 3.78 ypc. They gave up 334 yards rushing to the Hokies in their last game. To make matters worse, they lost DE Antonio Garay for the season last week. Garay is third on the team in tackles with 34 (24 solo) and led the team in tackles for loss (7) and sacks (3). Also out is DT Doug Goodwin, who was also injured last week. Goodwin is second on the team in sacks with two. Navy doesn’t throw the ball much; they have thrown only 98 passes all year, but will toss in a pass now and again to try and keep the defense off-balance. The Eagles have the 75th rushing offense in the country, averaging 136 ypg and 3.8 ypc. Senior wideout Keith Hemmings is listed as questionable. The rushing defense of Navy is anything but spectacular, giving up 262 ypg. But the last two games have been against Air Force and Rice, who are both basically run oriented teams. They did a good job holding Rice to 219 yards last week. They implemented a new 3-3-5 alignment last week, which will give them an advantage this week since BC will have to prepare for two different looks and have limited knowledge of the new scheme. The BC passing offense is 41st, averaging 240 ypg and 7.4 ypa. The Navy pass defense is ranked 27th, giving up 183 ypg and 9.1 ypa. Teams have mostly gone to the run against Navy so the passing numbers should be low. Neither team is doing a great job with turnover margin; BC is ranked 104th at –1.2 and Navy is ranked 107th at –1.3. Boston College’s next three games are all on the road; at Pittsburgh, at Notre Dame and at West Virginia, so expect them to be thinking about that as well as still thinking about their loss to Virginia Tech, a game in which they had their chances.
San Diego St. –5.5
The Aztecs 1-5 (1-0 MWC) picked up their first win of the year last week 36-17 over Utah. And it couldn’t come at a better time with that game being their first Mountain West conference game. Wyoming comes in at 1-5 (0-1 MWC) with their only win coming against The Citadel two weeks ago. Without that game, the average score in their games is 17-39. San Diego St. has been airing it out this year with their new offense. They are ranked 5th in passing offense, averaging 354 ypg and 7.4 ypa. The Wyoming pass defense will have their hands full trying to contain Tolver and Osgood. Their passing defense is ranked 115th, allowing 308 ypg and 7.9 ypa. Even though the Aztecs do not run the ball often, they might just do that more against the Cowboys, who are 98th against the run, allowing 195 ypg and 4.3 ypc. San Diego St.’s leading rusher is Michael Franklin, who only has 243 yards but is averaging 5.4 ypc. Defensively, the Aztecs will be focusing on QB Casey Bramlet. Bramlet is having an average year thus far, but has thrown for 532 yards with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in his last two games against The Citadel and Colorado St. San Diego St. has had trouble stopping the pass this year as they are ranked 92nd, allowing 248 ypg and 7 ypa. However, the quarterbacks that have beaten them all have higher ratings to Bramlet’s 117.3 (Pinegar 133.1, Ochs 121.3, Walter 151.6, Lindgren 132.8 and Paus 146.5). Only Utah’s Brett Elliott had a worse rating (100.9) and they were able to handle the Utes. Wyoming doesn’t have much of a running game to speak of as they are averaging only 109 ypg and 3.4 ypc, good for 102nd in the country. Their leading rusher is Derek Armah, who has run for 337 yards, but 181 of those came against The Citadel. The San Diego St. run defense is ranked 38th, allowing 129 ypg and only 3.3 ypc. They only gave up 30 yards rushing on 28 carries (1.1 ypc) last week to Utah. Expect San Diego St. to pour it on the defense of Wyoming. The only win for the Cowboys came against 1-AA The Citadel, a game in which they trailed most of the way and had to come back from a 10-point deficit to get the win. A struggle against The Citadel spells trouble.
SMU +12
Taking another shot with the Mustangs who are still winless but have been in the thick of things the last two weeks. Against San Jose St. two weeks ago, SMU held a 20-7 halftime lead but let the Spartans make a big second half comeback. The Mustangs had more total yards, 337-334, five more first downs and held the ball for 19 more minutes. The game was decided on a Spartan 33-yard interception return for a TD. Last week, SMU held the ball for nearly five minutes longer and only had 70 less total yards. Fresno jumped out to a 24-0 lead and the Mustangs got their first score with 2:24 left in the 4th quarter. They were driving to end the game but were picked off on the final play and the Bulldogs returned the interception for a 100-yard touchdown. SMU will try to run the ball this week and should be successful. They are averaging 185 ypg and 3.9 ypg and are led by RB Keylon Kincade, the WAC leading rusher, who has five 100-yard games this season. The Bulldogs rushing defense ranks 83rd, allowing 175 ypg and 4.3 ypc. The plan will be to try and exploit this advantage and also trying to keep the defense off the field against QB Luke McCown. The Mustangs pass defense is their liability, allowing 260 ypg and 8.1 ypa and now will have to go on without CB Kevin Garrett. McCown, an early season Heisman long-shot hopeful, has yet to play to his potential this year. The offense is averaging 277 ypg, but McCown has thrown 11 interceptions this year. With the departure of WR’s John Simon and Delwyn Daige to graduation, he has yet to find a go to guy this year. Part of the problem is that the Bulldogs have not been able to establish any sort of running game this year. They are 105th in rushing, averaging only 104 ypg, therefore allowing defenses to key on McCown and the receivers. Homecoming in Dallas this weekend, so if this team plans on winning a game, now is the time. SMU has been able to keep up with their competition for the most part; they just have had trouble finishing. Playing against the Bulldogs can help, as Louisiana Tech has been nothing but a disappointment so far this year. A trend here that fell under Arkansas St. as well - Bet on home dogs of between 7 ½ and 14 points against a team coming off a bye (48-20 70.6%).
South Florida E
The Bulls come is at 4-2 after their win against Southern Miss last week. South Florida held the Golden Eagles to 144 yards rushing on 34 carries (4.2 ypc) while they gained 464 yards of offense themselves, but committed 10 penalties for 90 yards that put them back. The Pirates, 2-3 (2-0 CUSA), return to action after a bye week. They defeated Army 59-24 in their last game but were fortunate because of the Army turnovers. The four turnovers led to 21 East Carolina points including the first drive of the game for Army, in which they fumbled on their second play from scrimmage. They were able to out yard the Pirates 377-321 and held the ball for over 9 minutes longer. It’s difficult to back a team that cannot gain more yards than the Cadets. The strength of the South Florida offense is their passing game directed by QB Marquel Blackwell. Ranked 45th, they are averaging 237 ypg. While the rushing game is only averaging 118 ypg and 3.5 ypc, they have three durable backs that have 39 or more carries. The game plan will be to run on the Pirate rush defense that is ranked 190th in the country, allowing 222 ypg and 4.7 ypc. The South Florida defense is the cog that keeps this team going. They are ranked 19th in overall defense, allowing 301 ypg and 4.1 ypp. They will face a Pirate offense that hasn’t done much running nor passing this year. The passing game is ranked 94th, with 168 ypg and 6 ypa, while the rushing game is ranked 84th with 126 ypg and 3.5 ypc. Overall, the offense is ranked 112th, gaining only 293 ypg. The quality of the defenses has not been the problem. That have faced Duke (46th), Wake Forest (76th), Tulane (78th), West Virginia (14th) and Army (63rd). Not the worst defenses, but with the exception of West Virginia, certainly not top notch. Blackwell is the key to this game. As long as he can get going, they can easily win this game. With the strength of their defense and the weakness of the Pirate offense, the Bulls can control that aspect. East Carolina is 112th in turnover margin at –1.4 while South Florida is 38th at .7. This is the second consecutive game against a future CUSA opponent (they will join the conference in 2003), and they will want to show like last week that they will be a force when they enter.
TCU +12.5
TCU has quietly won 5 games in a row after a disappointing opening game loss to Cincinnati. Last week, the Horned Frogs defeated Army 46-27. TCU was able to run all over Army, gaining 265 yards on the ground. The Horned Frogs had plenty more opportunities, but had two touchdowns called back because of penalties and botched a punt at their own five-yard line. They also fumbled the ball seven times, mostly due to the bad weather, but were able to recover five of them. Louisville is coming off a road win at Memphis 38-32. They almost let Memphis come back after holding a big lead. But the Cardinals lost their leading receiver TE Ronnie Ghent for the season. He was Ragone’s favorite target with 25 receptions and three touchdowns. TCU will get QB Sean Stilley back for this game. Stilley has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. TCU is ranked 84th in total offense, averaging 352 ypg. But they are averaging 31.7 ppg, which is 34th in the country. Their passing offense ranks 72nd with 197 ppg, so the return of Stilley should help this unit. Louisville has played well defensively this year as they are ranked 15th overall, giving up 292 ypg and 4.3 ypp. However, throw out the Army game and the defense has allowed 469 yards to Colorado St., 335 yards to Florida St. and 359 yards to Memphis in their last three. TCU will be able to move the ball. The Horned Frogs strength this year has been their defense. They are ranked 7th nationally, allowing 274 ypg and 3.9 ypp. Both of their passing and rushing units are solid. The passing defense ranks 34th and the rushing defense ranks 8th. This will be toughest test of the year so far though although Louisville doesn’t have very impressive numbers. They rank 82nd in total offense, averaging 354 ypg, just ahead of TCU. The strength is the passing of Ragone, but as stated earlier, his big target has been lost for the season. Their rushing attack only ranks 88th in the country, averaging 124 ypg and 3.4 ypc. TCU is 2-1 in CUSA, so a win here will move them up the ladder while a loss will put them 1.5 games out. Feeling here is that this number is way too high for an under achieving Cardinals team, who have only one significant win in the books against Florida St. TCU has run off 5 in a row, albeit against much lesser competition, but wins are wins and those wins give teams confidence that carries forward.
Vanderbilt +26
In a nutshell, this is Vanderbilt’s bowl game as it’s time to play spoiler. The Commodores, 1-5 (0-3 SEC), are coming off three straight losses of seven points or less and have lost by more than 26 points only once this year which came in their first game against Georgia Tech. Last week, they lost a tough game to Middle Tennessee St. 21-20. They shot themselves in the foot with 14 penalties for 141 yards and gave up the winning score with only 52 seconds remaining. Georgia, 6-0 (3-0 SEC), is coming off a big victory over Tennessee, a game in which they were fortunate to escape with a win. Tennessee finished with more yards 344-294 and held the Bulldogs to 62 yards rushing on 32 carries (1.9 ypc). It could be letdown time for the Bulldogs as they have had two tough games in as many weeks and will be traveling to Kentucky next week. Vandy’s last win in the series came in 1994, but since then their biggest loss to the Bulldogs has been only 21 points and the average score over the last seven years is 24-13. Vanderbilt will try to utilize their strength, which is the running game. They are ranked 29th in the country in rushing, averaging 198 ypg and 4.9 ypc. They will face a tough Bulldogs run stopping defense that ranks 18th, allowing 106 ypg and 2.7 ypc. Throwing the ball has not been the strong point of the offense, as they are only averaging 146 ypg. This week, they get back QB Jay Cutler, who missed the last game while serving a suspension. While the Georgia defense is solid, the offense has not been a very consistent unit this season. They are ranked 94th in total offense with 336 ypg and 5.1 ypp. The running game is the biggest disappointment, where they are 95th, gaining only 112 ypg and 3.4 ypc. The Commodore defense is ranked 88th, allowing 396 ypg and 5.8 ypp. Not great numbers for a defense that used to be the strength of Vanderbilt in years past, but good enough to keep control of the Bulldogs offense. Georgia has only dominated two opponents this year, Northwestern St. and New Mexico St. With Vanderbilt playing well even with their win-loss record, they should stay within this number without a problem.