Saturday NCAA FB Selection
9:00 AM PT/12:00 PM ET
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
MICHIGAN -26 over Vanderbilt
The Wolverines take to the field for the first time in 2006 as they host the Commodores on Saturday. Vanderbilt has been the perennial doormat of the SEC and could not qualify for a bowl game last year, despite a 4-0 start and Jay Cutler behind center. Now, without their 4-year starting QB, it could be a very long year in Nashville.
Michigan enters their opener with very high expectations, even if they have many doubters. While a 7-5 season would have been celebrated by the Commodores, it's considered a lost year in Ann Arbor, so the heat is on the Wolverines in 2006 after such a season. Fortunately, for Lloyd Carr there is tremendous returning talent, especially on offense.
Chris Nickson will try to fill the cleats left behind by Cutler, as he makes his first college start. Needless to say, doing so in the "Big House" is as about as difficult of rookie start as is possible. "We can't change that. The only way to get him experience is to let him play against Michigan," Vanderbilt coach Bobby Johnson said. Not exactly the words of a confident coach.
Offensively for Michigan, QB Chad Henne and a healthy Mike Hart at tailback return and are poised for big numbers. They were both sensational 2 years ago as freshmen, but did not quite live up to expectations last year, partly due to health reasons. Now back as juniors, they and the team are determined to not be forgotten again. The Wolverines defense certainly isn't short on talent, either. They will be out for blood here to make Chris Nickson's premiere under center a nightmare.
Lloyd Carr is not one to make bold statements, so it's noteworthy when he says "I have great excitement and passion because I think we have a chance to have an outstanding year." It should start on Saturday, as the players can not wait to get out of the gate. "We're going to prove people wrong that think Michigan is down because of what happened last year, when we let our fans down. We want to get Michigan back on the page it should be on," linebacker LaMarr Woodley said.
Going up against one of the SEC's worst defenses from last season, they should pretty much have their way with Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, scoring at all will be a challenge for the 'Dores. It will only get worse once they fall behind and have to drop their green QB back on almost every down. Chances are they won't be able to put up more than a TD here, which is not a good omen for Vandy, as they are 2-11-1 ATS when scoring less than 14 points, while the Wolverines are 12-1 ATS when allowing less than 14 points.
Any chance of Michigan overlooking an obviously outclassed Commodores team vanished in the offseason following an embarrassing bowl loss as a large favorite against Nebraska. Demonstrating the determination of such teams, a PRO INFO SPORTS NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM states:
In Game 1, play ON a home team (not a favorite of 35+ points) off a Bowl SU loss as a favorite of more than 7 points last season and not 2 conference favorite SU losses before that.
Going back 20+ seasons, the qualifying teams are 11-0 SU & ATS, winning outright by nearly 33 points and crushing the spread by more than 19 points a game on average. The last 4 such teams have allowed 7 points or less, including 2 shutouts.
After a subparts season, every Wolverine player and coach in on notice that much more is expected in 2006. With the returning talent on hand, they are more than capable of getting back into the Top 10, where they feel Michigan belongs. They know they have to earn it, and it starts by whipping Vanderbilt. We are very selective in picking spots to back such a large favorite and we are confident the Wolverines should get the call here with a SU win of at least 4 TDs.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MICHIGAN 41 VANDERBILT 10