Saturday NCAA FB Selection
Saturday, September 9, 2006
12:45 PM PT/3:45 PM ET
1 STAR SELECTION (2% of Bankroll)
Idaho +17½ over WASHINGTON STATE
Familiar non-conference foes will clash on Saturday afternoon when the Cougars host their neighborhood Vandals. Dennis Erickson has returned to his coaching roots in Moscow, Idaho after various major college and pro stints. Erickson has been a success everywhere he’s gone in the college game, and he now looks to turn the Idaho program back around.
If last week’s showing by his team is any indication, the team has taken some big steps forward already. Last week, the Vandals fought tooth and nail at Michigan State as underdogs of more than 4 TDs, but came up short in a 27-17 final.
Washington State was also on the road last week and wasn’t nearly as competitive against a powerful Auburn team. The Cougars limped home on the wrong end of a 40-14 whipping.
RB Jayson Bird, who picked up 88 yards on 20 carries last week in East Lansing, and QB Steven Wichman are the keys for the Idaho offense. Wichman had a decent outing against the Spartans and should improve as the season progresses while he gets a better grasp of the new offensive scheme that Erickson installed.
Dennis Erickson’s defenses have been known to be mean and nasty, and he is trying to bring that attitude to the Vandals. They did a credible job of slowing down Michigan State’s potent attack last week, led by David Vobora, who posted a career-best 16 tackles. Despite giving up some yardage to the Spartans, the defense kept the team in the game. It’s clear that while the “D†has a ways to go, it’s been vastly upgraded over last year’s unit that allowed more than 38 points a game on average, and that was against competition much weaker than Michigan State.
WSU QB Alex Brink was replaced by Gary Rogers during the defeat against the Tigers but will return to start here. Brink finished the evening 11-of-24 for a mere 67 yards and one interception, while getting sacked four times. DeMaundray Woolridge took a back seat to Jerome Harrison last year, but is now the featured back. He is one of many Cougars who will be less than 100% for this game.
Washington State suffered a defensive meltdown in the Alabama heat and humidity last Saturday night, allowing nearly 300 rushing yards and 191 passing yards from Auburn QB Brandon Cox. The Cougs’ defense is still licking its wounds after being physically dominated by the Tigers.
Erickson’s Vandals gave John L. Smith and his Spartans a scare last week because of his familiarity with Smith and his coaching style, as Smith was once a coach of his in Idaho. It’s a big advantage for the underdog when their coach has a great deal of knowledge of the opponent’s potential gameplan due to previous relationships with the opposing coaching staff. Such was the case last week for Idaho in East Lansing, and such will be the case this week, as the Vandals make the short trip down the street from Moscow, Idaho to Pullman, Washington.
Dennis Erickson used to coach at Washington State before heading off to Miami, Florida to win a couple of national titles. His success at highest levels of college football is a big reason why his new team has responded strongly and should play with toughness and confidence every time they take the field.
"I've been down the road a lot of miles. You learn as you go through different things," Erickson said recently. "I think I know how to get it done. I have a pretty good idea now what is necessary to be successful at the college level. I know the direction and the steps we need to take."
We can find tremendous line value early in the season when playing ON a team that is responding positively to a new coach. We look to isolate a quality coach with a solid staff when there are reasons to support the team, which we have here with Erickson and the Vandals as big road dogs against their area rival, who they would love to beat.
Last season, in the opener for both teams, the Cougars defeated Idaho by a 38-26 count, and the Vandals should certainly be able improve upon that. Idaho gained more confidence last week and is still hungry for a victory. They’ll benefit by getting a Washington State team that literally limped home after getting mauled by the Auburn Tigers. Several key players are injured and may be out altogether, including DT Aaron Johnson, CB Don Turner and maybe most importantly, RB DeMaundray Woolridge.
The entire WSU injury report is quite lengthy exposing a lack of depth for this game, especially on offense. Obviously, if a defense is missing several starters and key backups, the team can be very vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent. If the Cougars were hoping for a break after a brutal road loss in Alabama, they are likely to be very disappointed, as Erickson will have his Idaho team more than ready to play this game. The Vandals are 10-0 ATS all-time as a road underdog of less than 3 TDs off a loss of more than a FG, and they should give the Cougars all they can handle in this one.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WASHINGTON STATE 35 IDAHO 28