Saturday NCAA Football Selection
Iowa +4 over MINNESOTA
The “Floyd of Rosedale†bronze pig is on the line Saturday at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, as Minnesota takes on #19 Iowa. The Hawkeyes come in on a roll, including last week’s 23-21 nail-biter against Purdue. Iowa has now won their last five games and are 5-1 in Big 10 play. Meanwhile, the Gophers are headed in the opposite direction, having dropped four of their last five games, including a 38-14 loss at Wisconsin last Saturday in a winning PRO INFO SPORTS 7STAR SELECTION.
Hawkeye QB Drew Tate had another impressive outing last week, as he has had to make up for a lack of a potent ground game this season. The running game has been nonexistent at times, as they have lost three starting running backs this season to injuries. Tate has picked up the slack by throwing for nearly 2000 yards and 13 touchdowns. The offense hasn’t been asked to carry the load, as Iowa's defense has been outstanding this season.
Minnesota still has the seventh-ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 247 ypg on the ground, but they have been slowed down considerably in the second half of the season. Last week, for example, they were held to just 73 yards by Wisconsin. Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber III make up a very strong duo in the backfield and have a chance to become the first pair of teammates in NCAA history to each rush for over 1000 yards in 2 seasons. QB Ryan Cupito has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions this year, but is averaging just 195 ypg, has only completed 47 percent of his pass attempts, and has obviously not been as effective down the stretch. The Gophers have proven to have one of the worst defensive units in the Big Ten this season.
Minnesota has been at their best in the Metrodome this season but this team is playing its 11th straight game without a week off, is struggling with confidence and looks to be simply out of gas. We aren’t expecting a very inspiring effort here from the home team, as they really can't change their status very much at this point. The Gophers will still have a winning record, even if they lose, while a win here won't send them to anything more than a mediocre bowl game.
Now, not only have the Gophers lost four of five games, they are starting to fire shots within their ranks. After Minnesota got obliterated last week at Wisconsin, defensive end Darrell Reid vented some of his feelings in the locker room. He blamed the players for the defeat but then also put a big chunk on the coaching staff. That did not sit well with Minnesota head coach Glen Mason. "He can question whatever he wants," Mason said of Reid. "He runs his mouth all the time, doesn't he?" Mason doesn’t even sound very excited about what a win here means, saying “I'm not going to be totally happy with itâ€.
The Hawkeye defense will provide a major test for the Gophers ground game, as Iowa is fourth in the nation and first in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing just 68 yards per game. This game should come down to which quarterback can make some plays, and we give the edge to Tate over Cupito.
Iowa has done very well in this series, going 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Minnesota, on the other hand, is not in a favorable spot here, as they are 1-10 ATS as a favorite in their last game of the regular season, 1-8 ATS playing with revenge against conference foes, and just 2-12 ATS in their final 3 season games under Glen Mason. The Hawkeyes should continue to roll with an upset SU win here, and at the very least cover the spread in a very close contest.