Saturday NCAA Football STAR SELECTION
1 STAR SELECTION
MISSOURI +15½ over Texas
The 2nd-ranked Texas Longhorns to their show on the road, as they travel to Columbia, Missouri to kick off Big 12 Conference play with the Tigers. Mack Brown's team is 3-0 on the season, with easy wins over UL-Lafayette and Rice, along with come-from-behind victory at Ohio State, and are now coming off a week of rest
As for Mizzou, they're 2-1, with a couple of blowouts against Arkansas State and Troy, sandwiched around a loss to New Mexico. The Tigers were also idle last weekend, giving them ample time to prepare for Texas.
The Longhorns are as explosive as any team in the nation, led by QB Vince Young. The athletically gifted signal caller is a magician with the ball in his hands. While not a pure passer, he still has a nice touch and is very difficult to corral in the open field.
Missouri has its own multi-threat field general in Brad Smith. The NCAA's active career leader in total offense coming into this contest, Smith is completing is more of a natural passer than Young, hitting 67% of his attempts for 249 ypg with six TDs and two INTs this season this season. He, too, is dangerous in the open field and actually leads the team in rushing, ranking fourth in the conference. He also sits second in the nation presently in career TDs accounted for with 83, just behind 2004 Heisman Trophy winner, USC's Matt Leinert with 86.
While the Longhorns are clearly the better team, we find good value with the home team and the points here. Texas is 0-3 ATS at Missouri over the past 15 years, so this is not a spot where they have had a lot of success. They are also in “sandwich†situation, coming off a bye and looking dead-ahead at their hated rival and nemesis, Oklahoma. As a TD+ favorite with 9+ days rest off a SU & ATS win, the ‘Horns are a poor 0-7-2 ATS over the past 25+ seasons.
It’s unusual that they would schedule a road game against a decent team like Missouri with the Sooners coming up next week. In the past 25+ years, Texas has always played lowly Rice if they had a road tilt before hooking up with Oklahoma. The one exception was the season in which they played away from home before facing the Sooners. In 1997, Texas was a 6-point road favorite at Oklahoma State, but lost 42-16. They were just 1-6 ATS overall in road games before the Okie game. Having learned the lesson of not playing a road game before taking on the Sooners, Texas has played at HOME every year in that spot since suffering the 1997 blowout loss to the Cowboys. They broke with that practice this season to face Missouri. It may be a decision they come to regret.
Missouri has broken the hearts of its fans on more than one occasion over the past several seasons, as big things have been expected of the team. They greatly underachieved last year with a lot of pressure on their shoulders, but may blossom this season with attention elsewhere. The one role in which they have consistently thrived is as an underdog. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past 2 seasons when not favored, including a cover at Texas last year.
Now, coming off a bye week, coach Gary Pinkel said the Tigers are ready for Texas. "We had a good week," Pinkel said. "We got some guys healed up a little bit." One of those players is senior Sean Coffey, the Tigers' top receiver who was out the last two games with a dislocated shoulder. He is their main downfield threat, and we like the chances of Brad Smith and company keeping this one close throughout. A SU win is a possibility, although we’ll call for the Longhorns to escape with a TD win, giving Missouri the spread victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS 28 MISSOURI 21