Saturday NCAA Selection
TEXAS A&M -27½ over SMU
Off a huge victory over then nationally ranked TCU last week, Southern Methodist pays a visit to Texas A&M on Saturday. The Mustangs beat their hated local rival 21-10, while the Aggies were taking the week off after a 25-24 loss at Clemson.
SMU figures to fall prey to the same letdown that the Horned Frogs did off their monumental victory at Oklahoma. After a team pulls a major upset, especially a down-trodden program, much of the following week is spent celebrating the glorious victory. The win over TCU was basically the Mustangs’ bowl game, as they know they will be home for the holidays. They aren’t likely to have a better performance or bigger victory this season. SMU did more than just snap a six-game losing streak in its rivalry with TCU. It was the first win over a ranked opponent in 20 seasons! Off its peak performance of the year, a team can be expected to let down. The players subconsciously know that they just played their best game of the season and will be hard-pressed to match that emotion, effort, and intensity next time out. "I can't speak for everybody who's been here, but I know it's the biggest win since I've been here, and that's all I'm concerned about," said coach Phil Bennett, who is 7-30 in his fourth season at SMU. "We've been here four years and it's our first marquee win."
Texas A&M won’t be taking anyone lightly this week, as they will be all business. The team went from being the 17th-ranked program in the nation to just another squad in the Big 12 following its one-point loss to the Tigers in the opener. A&M has had plenty of time to reflect on the loss, so we look for Reggie McNeal and company to come out strong and make a statement here. Getting a team with a lack of focus off a big upset win will play right into the hands of the determined Aggies.
SMU is 0-4 ATS over the past 10 years as a home favorite/pick or road underdog off its first win of the season as a home/neutral site underdog, demonstrating their inability for back-to-back solid games. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is a perfect 9-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite with 13+ days rest since 1992. The Aggies should roll early and often to a blowout SU & ATS win, as the Mustangs melt in the Texas heat.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TEXAS A&M 49 SMU 13