SATURDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Fast Eddie Sports

(10*) Michigan State Spartans
(10*) Auburn Tigers
(10*) California Golden Bears
(5*) Wake Forest Deamon Deacons
(5*) West Virginia Mountaineers
(5*) Connecticut Huskiesm
(5*) Boise State Broncos
(5*) Arkansas State Indians

Lexus sports

4 Star Kansas State
4 Star Texas Tech
4 Star Michigan
3 Star Florida State

James King Sports

20* cfb game of the year - Wake Forest

10* Indiana
10* Middle Tennesssee St.
5* Bowling Green
1* Idaho

Right Angle Sports

One official 1 UNIT Play this week:

Lines current as of Thursday at 10:25pm Pacific.

New Mexico (+1.5) at TCU - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #189-190
After three straight second place finishes, many Lobo insiders believe this may be their year to win the Mountain West. Despite a tough loss last week at UTEP, the Lobos at 3-1 are still off to their best start ever under Rocky Long which includes a marquee win at Missouri. Last week at UTEP, New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime. They had forced UTEP to go 3 and out on their first possession of the second half. New Mexico then drove inside the UTEP 20 and appeared ready to take control of the game. On the next play a bad snap led to a 3rd and very long, and on 3rd down UTEP returned an interception for a TD. New Mexico's next possession ended in a punt that was blocked and returned for a TD. Before they knew what had hit them, the Lobos trailed 21-10. They hung in and pulled within 21-13 but could get no closer. The big news of the night was the performance of New Mexico's defense. They are only one of three schools in the country to finish in the top 30 nationally in total defense each of the past 5 seasons. The unit held the high powered UTEP offense to just one offensive touchdown. UTEP is a team that had averaged over 40ppg in their last 9 outings dating back to last season!

After watching junior QB Kole McKamey last season, I felt the New Mexico offense would always be limited with him at the helm, but he was really impressed me with his improved play this year. McKamey is leading the MWC in passing efficiency after finishing last a year ago. He is playing with much more confidence and has developed great chemistry with senior WR and roommate Hank Baskett. They have become one of the best pass catch combinations in the conference. McKamey is also a threat to run and often picks up key first downs with his legs. The improved passing game has taken some pressure off star RB Dontrell Moore who is looking closer to 100% with every game following offseason knee surgery. The Lobos have a big productive offensive line and continue to be one of the top rushing teams in the conference.

TCU is coming off two close overtime wins in conference play. They could just as easily be 0-2 as both games ended with controversial "no-calls" by officials. In last game at BYU, TCU trailed 34-16 in the second half but were able to mount a big comeback thanks to no less than 9 BYU defensive starters leaving the game with injuries! TCU also benefited from +3 turnovers and a 100 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. TCU's defense looked helpless giving up 614 total yards for the game. The Horned Frogs suffered a significant injury of their own, losing senior QB Tye Gunn to a shoulder injury. He is listed as doubtful this week and junior Jeff Ballard will make his first career start. I always look to play against teams who are starting an inexperienced QB against New Mexico's confusing blitzing schemes. BYU runs a similar defensive scheme now, but they are not nearly as fast or as effective as New Mexico is in it. UNM was tied for second in the nation with 42 sacks last year and already have 11 this year. Even with last weeks 50 point game at BYU, TCU still ranks only 9th in the MWC in total offense and will now be without their starting QB.

TCU's game at BYU last week lasted 4 hours and 42 minutes. The team has to feel some effects of the emotional and physical roller coaster they have been on this season. New Mexico has always played better in the second halves of seasons and in conference play under Rocky Long. The Lobos are 26-12 ATS in final 7 games of the season since 2000. They are 10-2 ATS in last 12 conference road games and 10-3 ATS in last 13 as a road dog overall! They are also 9-4 ATS since 2002 off a straight up loss. All signs point to the Lobos here.

Official Play: New Mexico +1.5 1 UNIT

AAA sports

Penn State +2.5.
Purdue
Missouri + 14

Dr.Bob

4*West Virginia
4*Penn St

NEW YORK WISEGUYS 100* PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS +3 (-120) over Minnesota Golden Gophers
3:37 PM EDT Kickoff from Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley, Pennsylvania

ASA

5* - Iowa
4* - Texas A&M
4* - Alabama
3* - Indiana
3* - Iowa St

SportsGuru

2*Missouri +15
1* Middle Tenn State +15 1/2
1* Ole Miss/Tennessee over 38 1/2

GoldSheet Super Seven
Iowa State

Dr Bob Full Card:

4 - Penn State
4 - West Virginia
3 - Iowa
3 - Hawaii
3 - Wyoming
3 - Cal
3 - Auburn
2 - Michigan State
Strong Opinion - Akron

Assassins Picks

2 Units on Maryland +3 -110
1 Unit on UL Lafayette +3½ -110
1 Unit on West Virginia +10½ -110
1 Unit on West Virginia U 40½ -110
2 Units on Arizona U +16½ -110
1 Unit on Minnesota U -2½ -110
3 Units on Michigan +6 -110
1 Unit on Miami Florida -21 -110
1 Unit on Tulsa U 61 -110
2 Units on Idaho +2 -110
3 Units on Arkansas State -3 -110
1 Unit on Iowa U 52 -110
4 Units on Eastern Michigan -3½ -110
5 Units on Iowa -18½ -110
2 Units on Memphis +3 -110

Joe Capriolli

GAME OF THE YEAR - ARIZONA STATE

Nick Patrick

2 Minnesota
1.5 Mich State
1 Nebraska

DOC

5*MICHIGAN STATE
5*ALABAMA
4*
Minnesota
West Virginia
Ucla
Purdue
Arizona

SPORTS GURU UPDATE

WELL I CONTINUED MY TOTAL DOMINATION IN THE NFL AGAIN HITTING 4 OUT OF MY TOP FIVE PLAYS AND IF THE RAMS WERE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO THEIR 14 POINT FOURTH QUARTER LEAD WE WOULD HAVE HAD A MONSTER DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE NCAA WAS A DISASTER. MOST PEOPLE GOT KILLED THIS PAST WEEKEND AND I WAS NO EXCEPTION BUT I DID SEND OUT AN ADDENDUM AS BEFORE THE GAMES WERE EVEN STARTED I HAD A BAD FEELING ABOUT THE GAMES. I HAVE NOW WON 15 OUT OF THE LAST 17 WEEKS FROM CONTINUED FROM LAST SEASON AFTER LAST WEEKS VERY SMALL LOSS. AS ALWAYS, I PLAY EVERY SELECTION I MAKE WITH MY OWN MONEY AND I BET AND I WILL BE BETTING THESE GAMES FOR $200/UNIT SO ADJUST YOUR RATINGS ACCORDINGLY AS YOU SEE FIT. BEST OF LUCK IF YOU DECIDE TO PLAY.

A WORD TO THE WISE. NCAA HAS NOT BEEN GOOD TO ME THIS YEAR AS IT HAS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS FOR ME SO BUYER BEWARE UNTIL I GET BACK ON TRACK.

NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.

8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
--------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS:
3* NAVY -6
3* OREGON STATE -1.5
2* MICHIGAN +6
2* MISSOURI +15
1* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +15.5
1* OLE MISS/TENNESSE OVER 38.5
1* INDIANA +18 ADDED
--------------------------------------------------
NAVY (0 - 2) at DUKE (1 - 3)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 1:00 PM
vs

Analysis

Since 1984 NAVY is 34-0 ATS in games they win SU away from home. Should I stop this analysis right now? Is there really anything else you really need to know? This may be Duke’s last chance at a win this season but it’s really not a very good chance. The Navy Midshipmen (0-2) last played a game on Sept. 10 -21 days ago. Navy is off a 10-2 season, but comes into this game 0-2 SU (though 2-0 ATS) after loses to Maryland and Stanford (both BCS schools) at home (each by 3 points). Senior QB Lamar Owens runs the Navy option-offense that is averaging 29 points, 228 yards rushing and 172 passing. They should be able to score and get a win against a weak Duke defense that has got run over by Virginia Tech and Virginia, and even lost 24-21 at East Carolina. Duke (1-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) has little talent and Duke QB Mike Schneider has yet to throw a TD pass after four games and has 4 INTs. Freshman QB Zack Asack came in against Virginia and threw one TD with 2 picks. In fact, Duke is averaging an embarrassing 96 yards per game through its passing game and is having similar difficulties running the ball. These teams met one year ago, and Navy won 27-12 with 301 rushing yards, covering as an 8-point favorite.

The Blue Devils haven't come close to a winning season in a decade. Numbers support the Mids. 0-2 road favorites are 20-9 ATS since 1980, including 9-0 ATS vs a foe off a SU ATS loss. Navy is a perfect 22-0 ATS in its last 22 road wins and 36-6 to the number in its last 42 wins as a favorite. Duke is 0-13 vs the money in its last 13 non-conference home losses. Navy figures to outrush the Dukies like everybody else does and the Middies are a money making 25-7 ATS on the road when they gain more ground yards than their opponent. So look for the Midshipmen’s relentless ground game (290 ypg in 2004) to break the resolve of the Devils’ defense, just like it did last season when Navy racked up 301 yards rushing in its 27-12 win over Duke. Navy should roll!

Forecast: Navy 28, Duke 16
PLAY 3* UNITS ON NAVY -6

WASHINGTON ST (3 - 0) at OREGON ST (2 - 2)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 4:00 PM
vs

Analysis

Welcome to the world of college football, Washington State. After three cream puffs to open the season, you get to go to one of the toughest venues in football to open your conference season. Oregon State has covered five in a row against the Cougars and is a sterling 42-3 ATS in its last 45 Pac Ten wins. The Cougars come into this contest undefeated at 3-0 and off a bye. You'd think they'd be rather confident facing a team that's been shellacked the last two weeks by scores of 63-27 and 42-24. Not so. While the defenseless Beavers have suffered back-to-back humiliations at the hands of Louisville and Arizona St., they've also flashed an almost unstoppable offense, piling up 57 first downs and 944 yards in those two defeats. Also note the quality of the opposition for these two squads. Having lost last week with my selection on OSC all I can say os that I was really on the right side. Oregon State had more first downs, passing and rushing yardage and time of possession than Arizona State. They also had fewer punts and penalties and yet the Beavers lost 42-24. While WSU has rolled over Idaho, Nevada and Grambling, OSU has battled the likes of Boise St., Louisville and Arizona St. Look for UCLA transfer Matt Moore, who is averaging 315 yppg, to shred a young and inexperienced Cougar secondary. Additionally, look for OSU to avoid the turnovers (6 last week vs. ASU) that killed them this past Saturday. Dropping down in class from the highly ranked offenses of Louisville and Arizona State, to WSU, will improve the defenses poor opening week numbers. Injuries are still a concern, as Oregon State's stellar tight end Joe Newton went down with a season-ending muscle tear. Academic problems shelved senior LB Chaz Scott, senior WR Marcel Love and junior college transfer CB Edorian McCullough. This week, Beavers coach Mike Riley said the team has lost senior WR Kevin Swanigan with a torn knee ligament. Still, with Oregon State going 29-3 SU, 20-7 ATS its last 32 home games I have no other choice but to go at them again this week.

Forecast: Oregon St 34, Washington St 24
PLAY 3* UNITS ON OREGON STATE -1.5

MICHIGAN (2 - 2) at MICHIGAN ST (4 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:00 PM
vs

Analysis

As expected, we'll have a 2-2 team set to face a 4-0 club in this match-up, but the major catch is it’s the Spartans who are undefeated rather than the Wolverines. Michigan State QB Drew Stanton must want that free trip to New York City pretty badly. Stanton features the best quarterback rating in the nation at 201.3, while the offense is averaging just under 600 yards of total offense per contest. The next two weeks will decide whether Stanton's candidacy is built for the long run as the Spartans tangle with Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr is once again up to his old tricks as his highly talented team now has at least one loss in September in seven of the last eight years. Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr is once again up to his old tricks as his highly talented team now has at least one loss in September in seven of the last eight years. Aside from a shellacking at the expense of overmatched Eastern Michigan, it's been a lackluster '05 for Michigan. The Wolverines have been victim of the sophomore slump as quarterback Chad Henne has been largely ineffective, while the injury bug has caught running back Michael Hart leaving the running game sluggish.

Stanton features the best quarterback rating in the nation at 201.3, while the offense is averaging just under 600 yards of total offense per contest. But MSU is 4-0 and they are now facing an opponent who is faced with the prospect of having to win out if they're to have a chance at a third straight BCS bowl appearance. The problem with MSU is they have been the underdog EVERY GAME in this series since at least 1975, and the only time in that span the Wolves were off a loss heading into this game, they destroyed MSU, 42-3. Also, can't ignore the fact Michigan is 14-3 ATS as a road dog of less than 7 points, including 6-0 ATS when the foe is off a SU & ATS win. Clincher: Wolves are 14-0 SU in games when they are dead even .500.

Forecast: Michigan St 24, Michigan 28
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MICHIGAN +6

TEXAS (3 - 0) at MISSOURI (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:00 PM
vs

Analysis

Both teams have had some time off to prepare for this rivalry game, won 28-20 a year ago by Texas. Texas (3-0 SU, ATS) has been dominant, winning games by an average score of 45-12 The Longhorns defeated Rice two weeks ago 51-10 when freshman Jamaal Charles ran for 189 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries in his first career start. After setting a UT freshman debut record with 135 yards in the season opener, Charles played a major role coming off the bench in Texas' win at Ohio State. He got his first start against Rice in place of the banged up Selvin Young, who has struggled to stay healthy in his return from a broken ankle last season. After passing for 270 yards and two scores against Ohio State, Vince Young was 8-for-14 for 101 yards with one interception, no touchdowns and 77 yards rushing. Missouri (2-1 SU, ATS) comes off a 52-21 rout of Troy State. Brad Smith once a Heisman hopeful was 23-of-33 for 183 yards and Tony Temple (80), Smith (79) and Woods (59) combined for 218 yards rushing on 32 carries.

I do not think there is any question that Texas is the better team in this match-up so I will say that from the start. With a whooping 85% of the betting public on Texas this week, this is not a game for the week at heart. So why or why are we going to be in the 15% that Lay our bets with confidence? Like some of the other games on my card there are lots of trends and a huge motivational factors in play for this contest. Both teams are coming off a bye week and I’m certain that the home underdog Tigers will pull out all the stops. Think about for a minute the Missouri QB Brad Smith who was once a Heisman hopeful and all of the talk that surrounded him involved his potential as a future top NFL QB. But for one-and-a-half seasons, while hearing about his own stock dropping, he has seen the star of Longhorns’ QB Vince Young rise and shine above him. Smith has come up big in big games before and I expect nothing short of a brilliant performance by him in this contest. Also consider that Smith is the best, most productive and most experienced player at the quarterback position that the Texas defense has faced this season.

The trend is also very much our friend this week as well. Consider that Missouri is 6-1 ATS its last 7 as an underdog. Home dogs who scored 40 or more and won the previous week (Missouri) have been a 60% play in college football for the last quarter century. Marc Lawrence also tells us that game four home dogs with a week of rest are 15-4 to the number in conference play and that Texas is a sorry 3-15 ATS as a favorite in its last 18 conference lid lifters. Moreover, road teams laying –7.5 points or more off bye weeks are 50-89 ATS (36%) over the last decade. Since 1980, Game 4 home teams off a win with rest are 50-30 ATS on the blind. When taking on a conference foe in this desired spot, they improve to 35-19 ATS. Missouri, with the right blend of emotion and heady play, can pull the upset, especially with Oklahoma lurking on deck for the Longhorns.

Projected Score: Texas 28, Missouri 31
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MISSOURI +15

MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 3) at VANDERBILT (4 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 7:00 PM
vs

Analysis

Vanderbilt has spent the 2005 season on a high, while Middle Tennessee has been very low, scoring only seven points in each of its first three games. A correction toward the norm for both is in order here. Last week the “Smart Kids” beat Richmond 37-13 and are atop the Eastern Division of the SEC with a perfect record of 4-0 (2-0 in league play). Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler again led the way. He completed 70 percent of his passes on 28 of 40 for 262 yards. Eric Davis, the Souheastern Conference’s active leader in receiving yards, again proved to be a solid target, producing a big game. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee State (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) has been known for a wide-open passing attack in recent years. But not so much this season as Junior QB Clint Marks (2 TDs, 3 INTs) has been woeful, scoring only 7 points in each of its three losses. MTS had a bye last week, giving them time to figure out what ails an offense that does feature an extremely accurate QB in Clint Marks, who completed 70.4 percent of his throws in 2004 and is hitting 66.7 percent in 2005. Certainly the Blue Raiders’ D hasn’t been the problem, allowing only 19 points a game, which should be enough to get us a ATS win so long as they are able to put up some points. Middle Tennessee State, less than an hour southeast of Nashville, views Vanderbilt as one of its biggest rivals and they have had the week off to prepare for this game. Combine that with the fact that LSU visits Nashville next week, and the focus this week for a Sun Belt opponent probably won’t be what it should. The difference in raw talent isn’t as pronounced as this spread might indicate, so there is an opportunity for MTS to compete here and get its season back on track. Take the points and hope that this traditionally strong offense can put some points up and get back on track..

Forecast: Vanderbilt 28, Mid Tenn St 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +15.5

MISSISSIPPI (1 - 2) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:30 PM
vs

Analysis

With the notable exceptions of Deuce McAllister and Eli Manning and several solid offensive linemen, Ole Miss has just not recruited very well recently, and unfortunately they came out as losers again last week losing to Wyoming 24-14, making me lose one of my opinion selections. The Cowboys rolled up 383 yards of total offense and forced Ole Miss into four turnovers, spoiling Mississippi coach Ed Orgeron's home debut. Simply put, the Rebels have struggled mightily offensively. Backup QB Robert Lane was ineffective in replacing injured starter Michael Spurlock, who broke the middle finger on his left hand in the previous week's loss to Vanderbilt. Spurlock played in the second half, but was unable to rally the Rebels past the Cowboys. Spurlock finished 5-of-14 for 83 yards and a touchdown. Lane was 7-of-15 for 37 yards and turned the ball over on three consecutive series. HC Orgeron said senior QB Micheal Spurlock will start against the Vols if he's healthy enough to play. Defensively, the Rebels clearly missed junior LB Patrick Willis, who is out indefinitely with numerous injuries. Ole Miss tackled poorly as Wynel Seldon, the Cowboys' freshman tailback, rushed for 124 yards on 21 carries. They better not tackle poorly here. Tennessee (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) overcame a three touchdown deficit and RB Gerald Riggs Jr. pushed into the end zone from a yard out in overtime to give Tennessee a wild 30-27 win Monday in LSU's long-awaited, hurricane-delayed home opener. QB Rick Clausen was the hero, finishing 21-for-32 for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and a TD run and appeared to settle the 10th-ranked Vols' quarterback controversy. Riggs finished with 89 yards on 24 carries. The Vols started slowly but they've settled on Clausen as the QB and the offense should be able to control this game against a Rebel squad that has big trouble with the run.

The fact that Tennessee is 0-4 ATS their last 4 times as a double-digit favorite, and are a loathsome 2-15 ATS in their last 17 chances as home favorites against .250 or better opposition keeps me away from backing either side in this contest. However, I forecast points-a-plenty as Ole Miss just does not have the talent at the skill positions to compete with the elite teams in the SEC. Against their entire schedule, they will always be facing a quarterback better than their own. Defensively, they are limited as well. Against Wyoming, they allowed 383 yards of offense, and that was against a team with a relatively weak running offense. Now they have to travel to play on of the best running offenses in the nation. To date, Ole Miss is allowing 163 rush yards per game against the likes of Memphis, Vanderbilt and Wyoming. This week against the most athletic and physical talent they have faced, they will be totally dominated. Look for the Tennessee’s offensive struggles to be corrected. So long as Ole Miss puts up a few score this game will fly way OVER the posted total.

Forecast: Ole Miss 14, Tennessee 35
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OLE MISS/TENNESSEE OVER 38.5

INDIANA (3 - 0) at WISCONSIN (4 - 0)
Week 5 Saturday, 10/1/2005 12:00 PM
vs

Analysis

Who did anybody think I would be saying this statement? The battle of unbeatens in the Big 10! Indiana (3-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) has only played Central Michigan, Nichols State and Kentucky. And they beat Central by 7 (20-13) and squeaked by Nichols State 35-31. Indiana's sophomore QB Blake Powers (11 TDs, 3 INTs) has led the resurgent passing game. Wisconsin (4-0 SU/ATS) is not an explosive offensive team, even though they brought in Paul Chryst (Oregon State) to try and rev up the 'O' this season. They are conservative again, but at 4-0, who's to argue? They are off a huge win, too. John Stocco’s 4-yard touchdown run with 24 seconds remaining gave No. 24 Wisconsin a 23-20 win over No. 13 Michigan in the Big Ten opener Saturday. But lets be honest here, When the home team is on a 10-17 ATS run as home chalk under their current coach, and is also off a dramatic comeback victory over hated Michigan, you can certainly have no other choice but to give this barking dog a hard look. Indiana’s defense, rested for an extra week here, keeps them in games and sometimes turns games its way with big plays that confound chalk-players who play against the Hoosiers’ very meek offense. A QB who figures to complete less than 50%, and a game-plan that hands it to the running back 30 times doesn’t figure to open up a big margin.

Projected Score: Wisconsin 24, Indiana 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON INDIANA +18

JIM FEIST

BLOWOUT GOY BOWLING GREEN
PLATINUM PARLAY OF THE YEAR NOTRE DAME/PENN STATE
_________________

MIKE ROSE

5* EAST CAROLINA
ALABAMA UNDER

REGULAR PLAYS
Oklahoma
Utep
Colorado
Tenn
Uab
Arizona State

POINTWISE

4* ALABAMA, LOUISVILLE

Missouri
Florida State
Ucla
WakeForest
Texas Tech