Saturday STAR SELECTION
BOISE STATE -20 over Nevada
The Broncos put their national-best home and conference winning streaks are on the line this Saturday when they host the Wolf Pack. Boise State has won 29 straight in league play and 28 in a row on their blue turf. Now, they are being challenged, with first place in the WAC standings at stake against Nevada. Along with Fresno State, both teams are 3-0 in conference play. The Broncos dropped out of the Top 25 after starting the season with 2 non-conference road losses against BCS bullies, but since then have strung together five straight wins, the most recent of which was a 45-21 decision on the road in Logan last week at Utah State. As for the Wolf Pack, they've played a total of just six games thus far and like the Broncos, got off to a slow start in September. Nevada was crushed in non-conference losses, but has since rolled to three wins in a row. Off last week, the Pack tackled Louisiana Tech in Reno back on October 15th by a final of 37-27.
Wolf Pack RB B.J. Mitchell is averaging 101 ypg, which is tops in the WAC and #23 in the nation. He has been a huge complement to Jeff Rowe who is second in the WAC in passing with 259 ypg. On defense, Nevada is allowing 222 ypg through the air and 144 ypg, while ball carriers have averaged close to four and a half yards per attempt.
Broncos QB Jared Zabransky is getting hotter by the week and earned WAC Offensive Player of the Week honors last week, as he connected on 26-of-39 pass attempts for 328 yards and four touchdowns. He also added 53 yards rushing on 14 attempts. While some may think Boise State is longer the most feared team in the Western Athletic Conference, they are still a team to be reckoned with. They rank second in the league in scoring with 34 ppg and have the top rushing attack with 201 ypg, good for 24th in the country. In addition to allowing 41 to Hawaii out on the island at the beginning of the month, the stats for the scoring defense in Boise is a bit skewed, and still the program ranks third in the league allowing 28 ppg. The run defense is 22nd in the country as it permits just 109 ypg.
It’s not often that a WAC team swaggers into Boise thinking they have a point to prove or a shot at the conference title. When challenged in such a manner, the Broncos have busted loose which is what we look for here. They have put their early-season struggles behind them and are ready to make a statement. They are a tremendous 13-0 ATS as a conference home favorite of less than 22 points, absolutely obliterating the spread by more than 22 points a game on average. While the wagering public may be impressed by Nevada’s 3-game win streak, we’re not. Beating San Jose State on the road, along with Idaho and Louisiana Tech at home does not make them a legitimate contender in our estimation. They are still a horrible 1-12 ATS as a conference underdog of more than 13 points, including 0-10 ATS all-time in conference play as a dog of more than 13 and less than 25 points. They are also 0-6-1 ATS as a conference road dog of 5+ points and 1-10-1 ATS all-time in that situation.
These teams have played 5 times since 1999, including the last 4 years in a row. In those games, Boise State is 5-0 SU & ATS, winning by an average of more than 40 points and beating the spread by an amazing 24 points a game on average. On the blue turf, the all-time numbers are even more frightening for Nevada, as the Broncos are 3-0 SU & ATS, pounding the ‘Pack by more than 43 points and demolishing the spread by an almost unbelievable 29 points a game on average. Look for Boise State to jump on Nevada early, taking them out of the game before half-time, and cruise to an easy SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: BOISE STATE 51 NEVADA 17