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COLLEGE FOOTBALL - OCTOBER 12, 2002
Duke @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM EST
Duke +13.5 over Wake Forest (5 Units)
The Duke Blue Devils head to Winston-Salem, NC to take on the Demon Deacons in a battle between two ACC squads looking for some respect... the Blue Devils have had a high level of success against teams that focus upon the run, which would explain their dominance in this series, and why we like them again today... Duke is 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Wake Forest, and with a rushing defense that is allowing just 126 yards per game, that number is highly likely to move to 5-0...
Duke proved their prowess against rushing teams last week in a 43-17 lambasting of Army, a victory that was their third straight ATS win on the road, and their fifth cover in their last six games... and whenever Duke and Wake have hooked up, the final margin of victory has consistently been tight... in fact, not only have the last four games in this series been decided by 13 points or less, but the last three games between these two in Winston-Salem have been won by a COMBINED six points... the fact that we are getting nearly two touchdowns in this contest is obviously quite the gift, as the underdog is now 4-0 ATS and 3-0 in the last three games at Wake...
The Demon Deacons are coming off a win of their own last week, but historically Wake Forest has followed up any measure of success with subsequent failure, going just 1-7 SU in their last eight games after a win... and Wake just doesn't have the defense to cover a number like this, considering that they have allowed 21+ points to each of their last 12 foes, and a gaudy average of 34.1 points per game to their last seven opponents... WFU's last eight straight up wins have come by just 10 points or less, and an average of 4.4 points... additionally, the Deacs are 0-2 in the rare occasions where they have been installed as a double-digit favorite...
It's obvious that while Wake Forest may have turned the corner towards respectability, they just don't have the killer instinct to easily put away an opponent... and with nearly two touchdowns on our side, we will gladly hammer the Blue Devils as they cover this spread with ease....
FINAL PREDICTION: WAKE FOREST 28, DUKE 27
Oklahoma @ Texas 3:30 PM EST
Oklahoma +3 over Texas (5 Units)
Texas quarterback Chris Simms gets another chance to redeem himself as a big game quarterback this Saturday when the Longhorns host the Oklahoma Sooners... While Sims has performed well in most games he has started, he has had the penchant for coming up small in the biggest games.... in his career, Sims has thrown 11 picks with no touchdowns against Top 10 teams, and has a miserable 3-7 mark as a starter against the best teams in the nation... in other words, Simms has been anything but clutch, and each horror show that passes against Top Ten competition, the less likely that Simms will ever step up and play well...
Oklahoma has certainly proven themselves to be a top ten squad, starting off the season a perfect 5-0 and scoring 31+ points in every contest, including victories over winning teams such as Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas, and South Florida... 31 points has been a magical number for the Sooners, as they are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games after scoring between 31 and 40 points...
The reason that Texas remains a small favorite in this game is due to two main reasons... first of all, the Longhorns have started the year off exceptionally strong, but that's fairly easy to do when you've faced creampuffs all year... every single one of Texas's opponents this year are sitting at .500 or lower, so their early 5-0 record needs to be taken with a heavy grain of salt... against a team of Oklahoma's caliber, Chris Simms should once again revert back to his interception-happy self, especially when you consider that he and Texas have been outscored by a 77-17 margin the last two times he has faced the Sooners... meanwhile, the Sooners have been tested by the likes of teams well beyond the talent level Texas has faced this year, so they look to be the more prepared and battle-tested team in this contest....
The second reason that Texas remains favored is due to Oklahoma is due to the Sooners' defense getting torn up by Missouri last week... The OK Corral allowed 24 points to the Tigers, just the sixth time in their last 20 games that they have allowed 20 points or more... But it's very interesting to see how Oklahoma responds after a defensive letdown - it's almost as if giving up 20 points is the fuel that the Sooners need to turn in their most dominant performances... for in their last five games after allowing 20+ points, Oklahoma is not just 5-0 SU/ATS, but they have won each of these games in a fashion so dominant it cannot be coincidence...
This is the type of trend that really deserves our complete attention, so let's take a look at each example:
January 3, 2001 - after allowing Kansas State to rack up 24 points, the Sooners marched into the championship game as an 11 point underdog to Florida State and proceeded to WIN by 11, with a final score of 13-2 (spread victory of 22)...
September 1, 2001 - after opening the season by allowing North Carolina to shred the team for 27 points, Oklahoma stomped all over Air Force, crushing them by a 44-3 margin as a -17 points favorite (spread victory of 24)...
October 6, 2001 - once again, Oklahoma was coming off a poor defensive performance against Kansas State, having barely squeaked by in a 38-37 shootout... However, in this game against the Texas Longhorns (the same team they play Saturday), Oklahoma did not allow Texas an inch, winning 14 to 3 as a three point road dog (spread victory of 14)...
November 3rd, 2001 - After losing their first game in nearly two years to Nebraska (by a score of 20-10), the Sooners took out all of their anger on a hapless Tulsa squad... the 58-0 victory may not have been surprising, but the fact that Oklahoma covered a -41 point spread by over two touchdowns is worth noting (spread victory of 17)...
September 14, 2002 - Coming off allowing the Crimson Tide to score 27 points against them, Oklahoma manhandled Texas-El Paso as a -43.5 point favorite, running up the scoreboard to a 68-0 laugher (spread victory of 24.5)...
Five games after allowing 20+ points... five victories by an almost absurd 197 to EIGHT margin... fine occassions where Oklahoma beat the spread by AT LEAST two touchdowns... in fact, Oklahoma's average spread victory during those games is an incredible 20+ points!
You almost have to feel sorry for Chris Simms and the Longhorns, for they look to be running directly into an Oklahoma buzzsaw that will once again crush the confidence of this team and their young QB... Throw on top the fact that Texas is a horrendous favorite to begin with (0-4 as a home fav, 4-12 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or less), and that they fail miserably in the games that are expected to be close (2-10 ATS when line is 5 or less either way), and it is quite apparent that history will repeat itself yet again....
The Oklahoma Sooners dominate the Texas Longhorn, moving the road team to 5-1 ATS in the series, and dropping Texas to 1-5 ATS at home, 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games, and most importantly.... 5-1 on the season with their first SU loss.
FINAL PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA 24, TEXAS 3
Buffalo @ Marshall 4:30 PM EST
Buffalo +31 over Marshall (5 Units)
Here's a simple mathematics lesson for oddsmakers... It's virtually impossible to cover a 31 point spread when you haven't won a game by that margin in several years, and your defense is mediocre... That is the issue that faces the Marshall Thundering Herd as they attempt to cover this gargatuan line against the Buffalo Bulls...
Marshall has won plenty of games over the years, but the times of out and out romps are long over for this team, as 24 points is the largest margin of victory for Marshall in a lined game since November of 1999, covering a span of 19 victories... during that span, Marshall's average margin of victory is just 13.5 points per contest... A huge reason why Marshall is not nearly as dominant is a defense that has allowed 21 points or more in 9 of their last 10 lined games (they allowed 18 in the other), and a mediocre 24.8 points per game in their last five home lined games... even if Marshall allows 18 points in this contest (their lowest total in over 10 games), Marshall would need to score 50 points to cover this spread against the Bulls...
This is an occurrence that is highly unlikely, considering that Buffalo seems to have set a ceiling upon how many points they allow to opponents... in their last 18 games, not one team has scored more than 41 points against the Bulls D, and 16 of those teams were held to 37 points or less... remember, the line in this game is 31 points, meaning that one solitary touchdown would ensure the cover if these trends continue... The Bulls have scored at least 13 points in each of their last eight games on the road, and have averaged 25.8 points per game in their last five road contests... in those contests, Buffalo has covered the spread on four of five occasions... and in their last six games as a road dog, Buffalo is undefeated against the spread...
In their last three games against Marshall, Buffalo has shown a significant improvement, going from losing by 56 points in 1999 to losing by 34 in 2000, and just 20 in 2001... The improvement has allowed Buffalo to cover the last two games in this series, and we expect that improvement to continue yet again as Buffalo loses this game by less than 20...
Marshall is just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite, 0-3 as a favorite of 20+ points, and have failed to cover the spread the last two times that they have been favored by 30 points or more... look for the failure to cover to continue in this contest as well, as Marshall does not cover this massive spread against the Bulls...
FINAL PREDICTION: MARSHALL 35, BUFFALO 19
California @ USC 6:30 PM EST
California +12.5 over USC (4 Units)
This line seems a bit out of whack to us, considering the past history between these squads... USC has had more than their share of troubles when facing the Golden Bears, losing four of their last six games SU against California, and each of the last three games between these two at USC's home field...
Then again, performing well at home hasn't been a strong suit of the Trojans... in their last fifteen games there, USC is just 3-12 against the spread... the numbers get even worse whenever the Trojans are favored by more than a field goal, as USC has covered in just one of their last twelve games...
California has performed best this season against ranked teams, defeating both Washington and Michigan State on the road already this year, teams that are both stronger than this Trojan squad... Many are expecting a letdown after Cal's win over Washington last week, but the Golden Bears have defied expectations by going 6-0 ATS in their last six games after a straight up win... and after an offensive output of 31-40 points, the Golden Bears have truly been golden, covering each of their last five contests...
On the road, California has covered four out of five, and are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road dog... This ties in nicely with the fact that the road team in this series is 5-1 both SU and ATS in the last six games between these two... not only do we like California to cover the spread in this contest, but we believe that there is a great chance that the Golden Bears will knock off their third Top 25 team on the road this year.... therefore, take the points!
FINAL PREDICTION: CALIFORNIA 31, USC 27
Oregon State @ Arizona State 10:00 PM EST
Arizona State +3.5 over Oregon State (4 Units)
The Oregon State defense must be exhausted after two straight games where they have been on the field for a combined 78+ minutes and 176 plays... in those contests, the Beavers have found themselves outscored by a 65 to 35 margin, including allowing 43 points to UCLA at home.... when OSU allowed 40+ points in game last season, they followed up both those contests by failing to cover their next contest...
Now the Beavers head to the road, where they are a miserable 1-5 SU in their last six games, and somehow they have been installed as a 3.5 point favorite... this type of respect is certainly not earned, as Oregon State's early schedule of creampuffs has left them unprepared for Pac-10 play, and the results have been apparent in their two losses to USC and UCLA, where quarterback Derek Anderson was just 24 for 72 passing, and threw his only touchdown passes in the fourth quarter against UCLA when attempting to play catchup...
The Arizona State Sun Devils were victimized by UNC quarterback Darian Durant last week in a 38-35 home loss... however, Derek Anderson does not possess any of the mobility that allowed Durant to avoid the strong ASU pass rush and scramble to make big plays... Arizona State already leads the league with 25 sacks on the season, and a sitting duck behind center, the Sun Devils should enjoy life immensely... it certainly doesn't hurt that both of Oregon State's starting tackles are out for this game with injuries... a shuffled around O-line plus a stationary quarterback spells trouble galore for the Beavers, who are staring an 0-3 conference start directly in the face...
While we expect one quarterback to struggle, the same cannot be said about Arizona State's Andrew Walter, who has been unstoppable the last couple of games... against Stanford and North Carolina, Walter has thrown for an absurd 888 yards, and if not for FOUR missed field goals last week, Arizona State should easily be riding a five game winning streak where they have scored over 35 points per game... in other words, the Arizona State offense is firing on all cylinders... ASU gained a whopping 657 yards against UNC, and now get to face a tired OSU defense that allowed 625 yards to UCLA just last week... getting points here at home is just an absolute gift...
Arizona State is 4-1-1 in their last six games as a home dog, while Oregon State is just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite... in their second straight home game, the Sun Devils are also 9-2-1 ATS, showing that they throroughly enjoy home cooking... then again, home cooking has been the name of the game in this series, as the home team has covered 13 of 15 in the series, and the last four games overall...
Did we also mention that Arizona State has won their last four games against Oregon State straight up as well? ASU has also covered 7 of the last 9 games between these teams, and all in all is just the better team.... all that, AND they're getting points at home... amazing.
Look for a red-hot Andrew Walter to continue his passing onslaught, as Oregon State is tired, injured (they are without star safety Mitch Meeuwsen for a month), and in serious trouble in this game... The Sun Devils win this game straight up in a surprisingly easily victory...
FINAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA STATE 31, OREGON STATE 17
Arkansas State @ Mississippi 2:00 PM EST
Ark St +29 over Mississippi (3.5 Units)
Apparently, another math course is needed in this contest... didn't we just go through the fact that a team cannot cover a spread when they have not WON by that margin?? Well, if the oddsmakers insist on listing Mississippi as a favorite this large, we have no choice but to take full advantage of the gift...
Since the 1996-97 season, Mississippi has compiled 45 victories in lined games... NOT ONCE have they won any of those contests by more than 29 points, which would explain why Ole Miss has such horrifying numbers as a favorite... Not only are the Rebels just 3-11 ATS as a favorite, but they are a terrible 2-11-1 as a double-digit favorite, and 0-5 as a favorite of over 20 points...
In their head-to-head matchups against Arkansas State, Mississippi is as predictable as an episode of (insert least favorite sitcom here - we were gonna go with Full House, but with so many bad shows out there... ), scoring between 30 and 38 points in each of their last five games... with scoring like that, allowing Arkansas State even one touchdown would jeopardize the spread... the fact that the Indians have scored in double-digits in each of their games against Ole Miss, and that the largest margin of victory by Ole Miss in the last five games in this series is just 25 points, and you're looking at a non-cover...
Then again, that should be nothing new for Ole Miss, as they have dropped each of their last five games to Arkansas State ATS, including the last four these two have played in Mississippi... like clockwork, Mississippi will score in the thirties, but fail to cover the spread against the Arkansas State Indians...
FINAL PREDICTION: MISSISSIPPI 35, ARKANSAS STATE 14
Florida State @ Miami 12:00 PM EST
Miami-FL -12 over Florida State (3 Units)
It's a battle of the titans as Florida State invades Miami in a clash of top ten teams... however, are both teams as good as their ranking might indicate? Bobby Bowden's bunch rebounded after their overtime loss to Louisville with a 48-31 win over Clemson, but the Seminoles were thoroughly outplayed in the first half of that game, and quarterback Chris Rix was benched for most of the second quarter... in fact, if not for some timely special teams play, Florida State could have been looking at loss number two and absolutely no hope at a national championship...
Even with the win, Florida State is showing some holes defensively, allowing 57 combined points in their last two games, and 26 points or more in four of their last five games on the road... and when you're that penetrable against lesser teams, just imagine what a team as potent as the Miami Hurricanes can accomplish...
Miami is firing on all cylinders, and are an exceptional play at home, where they have scored 27 points or more in 18 straight games, and 35+ points in each of their last twelve games... What is most impressive about Miami at home, however, has been a defense that has allowed a TOTAL of 36 points in their last nine lined home games... that's FOUR points per game against at least 35 points scored by the Hurricanes... Miami is 28-9 ATS in their last 37 games as a favorite, but what's really amazing is that the Hurricanes are a perfect 11-0 ATS as a home favorite of less than 40 points...
There has been a very interesting shift in power occurring in the series between these two teams since 1997, when Florida State crushed Miami by a 47-0 margin... the next year, FSU won again, but by a mere 12 points... in '99, that margin dropped to 10 points... finally, the Hurricanes got over the hump by beating Florida State by three in 2000... and last year, the Hurricanes rocked FSU by 22 points.... if the trend continues at all, Miami should have absolutely no problems covering a measly 12 point spread... and we believe that Miami should achieve that goal fairly easily by exposing the Seminoles as a pretender...
Miami has covered the last three games in this series, while Florida State has gone 0-3 ATS in the rare role of road underdog... throw on a 2-4 ATS record in their last six games, a 4-10 ATS mark in non-conference games, and a team that cannot be too confident after back-to-back struggles, and you have the making of a Miami blowout...
Take the Hurricanes to wreak havoc upon Bobby Bowden and the Seminoles and cement themselves as the class of college football yet again this year...
FINAL PREDICTION: MIAMI 41, FLORIDA ST 17
San Jose State @ Ohio State 12:10 PM EST
San Jose State +28.5 over Ohio State (3 Units)
We're backing yet another heavy underdog as the San Jose State Spartans head into Ohio State as a 28.5 point underdog... San Jose State has been a great play as a heavy underdog over the past several years, going a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of 20+ points, and beating the spread by an average of over 13 points per game in those contests... the Spartans have fared well recently in general, scoring 34+ points in their last three games, and going 3-0 both SU and ATS in their last three games...
The Spartans have allowed 35 points or less in five of their six games this year, and with an almost 30 point spread on their side in this contest, anything close to that defensive effort will result in a cover against Ohio State, who have allowed 16+ points in each of their last three games, and have been a poor play when favored heavily...
As a favorite of more than 10 points, the Buckeyes have covered just once in their last seven games... and as a double-digit home favorite, OSU is just 9-18-1 ATS in their last 28 games, numbers that don't bode well for this game...
San Jose State is playing solid football right now, and getting this many points against an Ohio State squad that has failed to cover as a huge favorite and have suffered some defensive lapses of late is an advantageous situation that we look to utilize... The Spartans are already 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and 4-1 ATS overall... look for this upward trend to continue yet again as they limit the Buckeyes to a three touchdown win...
FINAL PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 35, SAN JOSE STATE 14
Wyoming @ Colorado State 3:00 PM EST
Wyoming +25.5 over Colorado State (3 Units)
Here we go again... another heavy favorite getting way too much respect in Colorado State welcomes a Wyoming team that should have no problem covering this spread into town... While Wyoming's offense is certainly not anything to inspire fear within the Colorado State defense, they should be able to do just enough to keep themselves on the plus side of this spread...
Colorado State may know how to win some close games, but it seems that's all they know how to do... Each of their last 8 regular season wins have come by a mere touchdown or less, and their four wins this season have come by a COMBINED 18 points... for having an offense that many perceive as dominant, the Rams haven't really stepped up to the plate, scoring 36 points or less in thirteen consecutive regular season game, while allowing at LEAST 14 points in their last 13 games... take their maximum output of 36 points scored and their best defensive effort over that time (14 points), and you're still looking at a 22-point margin of victory that would not cover this spread... additionally, the Rams' D has sputtered as of late by allowing at least 28 points in each of their last four games...
It will obviously come as no surprise, given the above information, that Colorado State is 1-7-1 in their last nine games as a favorite, and 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite...
Wyoming came out of their offensive shell a bit last week against an admittedly poor Citadel squad, but the results cannot be ignored, for after scoring 20+ points in their previous game, the Cowboys have compiled a 5-2 ATS mark... Wyoming has also been a solid play as a road underdog, going 21-12-1 in their last 34 games...
The road team has already covered each of the last five games in this series, and we see absolutely no reason why that trend won't continue this Saturday... take the Cowboys and the generous spread.
FINAL PREDICTION: COLORADO STATE 35, WYOMING 16
Texas Tech @ Iowa State 7:00 PM EST
Iowa State -6.5 over Texas Tech (3 Units)
The Iowa State Cyclones look to move to 6-1 on the season when they host the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday evening.. Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite, and have helped achieve that mark by allowing just 35 points total over their last four home games, an average of less than nine points a game... On offense, Iowa State has been a force with which to be reckoned, piling up 31 points per game this season, including games against top competition such as Florida State, Nebraska and Iowa...
A big reason for Iowa State's success is a pass defense that is allowing a miniscule 166.4 yards per game... and the strength of their secondary will help neutralize a Red Raiders offense that has gained over 365 yards per game through the air... on offense, Iowa State should open up plenty of opportunities through the ground game, where they are averaging 162 rushing yards per contest, and are going up against a Texas Tech squad that is allowing 172 yards per game...
Texas Tech has performed miserably as a road dog as of late, allowing 40+ points in each of their last four games, an amount that looks to remain as Iowa State runs their way ragged through the Red Raiders defense... Iowa State has performed especially well coming off a game where they have allowed the opposition just two touchdowns or less... in their last 12 games after holding their opponent to 14 points or less, the Cyclones have covered on ten occassions...
Texas Tech is just 2-7 ATS after playing Texas A&M, and with the favorite having already covered the last two games between these teams, Tech looks to be in trouble against an Iowa State squad whose strength on defense should frustrate Texas Tech just enough to cover the small spread...
FINAL PREDICTION: IOWA STATE 41, TEXAS TECH 24
West Virginia @ Rutgers 3:30 PM EST
Rutgers +13 over West Virginia (2.5 Units)
We'll keep this one cut and dried... West Virginia is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite, and 4-12 overall when away from home... Rutgers on the other hand is 3-0 ATS as a home dog of 20 points or less, and have covered each of their last three contests... and with the Mountaineers having allowed at LEAST 24 points in each of their last 17 road games, covering a two touchdown spread is a heck of a lot to ask...
The home team has covered each of the last five games in this series, and we like Rutgers to keep this game close enough to make it number six.
FINAL PREDICTION: WEST VIRGINIA 27, RUTGERS 17
BYU @ Air Force 10:00 PM EST
Air Force -4.5 over BYU (2.5 Units)
Air Force comes into this game looking for revenge against BYU, after they were humiliated 63-33 last year... and considering several of the trends that exist with these two teams, it looks like a solid bet that Air Force will be able to atone for that loss by covering the spread in this game...
The Falcons are coming off a 48-7 blowout over Navy, and that domination bodes extremely well for those chances when you consider that Air Force is 10-2 ATS after scoring 40+ points, and 7-1 ATS after allowing less than ten points to an opponent... Air Force has also been a great play in general as of late, going 5-0 both SU and ATS, and also going 4-1 ATS in their last five games at home....
BYU has not been nearly as strong as a play, going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games, and 1-6 ATS on the road... as a single-digit dog, the Cougars are just 2-6 ATS, and they have lost each of their last two games at Air Force by at least a touchdown... What's really interesting to see is how the Cougars follow-up a strong offensive performance... for in their last six games after scoring 30 points or more, Brigham Young is winless against the spread, going 0-6 ATS in those contests...
The home team in this series has taken each of the last five contests, all by a TD or more... Take Air Force to do the same, as they extract revenge for last year's humiliation with a two touchdown win...
FINAL PREDICTION: AIR FORCE 37, BYU 23
OTHER PLAYS (no analysis):
Missouri @ Nebraska 12:30 PM EST
Nebraska -8 over Missouri (2 Units)
Oregon @ UCLA 3:30 PM EST
Oregon +2.5 over UCLA (2 Units)
Washington State @ Stanford 5:00 PM EST
Stanford +7.5 over Washington State (2 Units)
Southern Mississippi @ South Florida 7:00 PM EST
South Florida +3 over Southern Mississippi (2 Units)
Arkansas @ Auburn 12:30 PM EST
Arkansas +6 over Auburn (1.5 Units)
Colorado @ Kansas 2:00 PM EST
Kansas +21 over Colorado (1.5 Units)
Central Florida @ Western Michigan 3:30 PM EST
Western Michigan +2 over Central Florida (1.5 Units)
South Carolina @ Kentucky 6:30 PM EST
South Carolina +6.5 over Kentucky (1.5 Units)
Utah @ San Diego State 7:00 PM EST
Utah -10.5 over San Diego State (1.5 Units)
LSU @ Florida 7:45 PM EST
LSU +8.5 over Florida (1.5 Units)
Troy State @ Mississippi State 2:30 PM EST
Troy State +10.5 over Mississippi State (1 Unit)
New Mexico @ UNLV 7:00 PM EST
UNLV -6.5 over New Mexico (1 Units)
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