SB Sunday---Service Plays

Scott Spreitzer-

Pittsburgh

DR.BOB Super Bowl XL -

Seattle (+4) 23 Pittsburgh 24

Doc Enterprises

6* Lock

Under

5* Top Play

Pittsburgh

Northcoast Power Sweep

2* over 47

Game Day

4* Pitt

Lenny Stevens

10 stars Seattle Seahawks

Brandon Lane

1000 Dime - Pitt ML -195

500 Dime - Pitt-4

Props

Bettis scores a TD

Hasselback throws an INT

Seattle never leads in the game +220

Bob Balfe

Bob Balfe's Super Bowl Pick

Seattle +4 over Pittsburgh

CAPPERS ACCESS

SuperBowl XL Steelers Seahawks 4

Seahawks --Best Bet

Sport Records ATS

NFL Playoffs 2006 6 - 4 (+1.60 units)

Marc Lawrence

Seattle

------------------------------------

Cyber Sports Picks

They have Guaranteed play on SBXL.

Seahawks (15-3) @ Steelers (14-5)

Sunday, February 05, 2006

5:30:00 PM Central

Non-Conference game on Turf

Opening Odds = Pittsburgh Steelers-3.5

Current Odds = Pittsburgh Steelers-4

Rating = 10 Star Selection

Our Pick

Take Pittsburgh Steelers -4

---------------------------------

Bettorsworld Key Plays

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We just feel it will be the Seahawks making the bigger plays and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. As we head into the 4th quarter with the score tied, those 4 and a half points will loom large.

So sit back, crack a cold one, throw some hot wings in the oven, and enjoy the game as Mike Holmgren becomes the first coach to win a Super Bowl with two different teams.

3* SEAHAWKS +4.5 OVER STEELERS

redzone sports

SUNDAY OVER 9.5 PITT/ SEATTLE TOTAL POINTS FIRST QUARTER!! AS THE PUBLIC WILL PLAY ON THE UNDER .. WERE ON THE OVER 8 SUNDAY 1ST QUARTER + PITT STEELERS WILL HAVE THE MOST SACKS IN GAME {{-110}} STEELERS MOST QB SACKS!!..

USA Sports

under

also under 1st quarter, over 2nd, under 3rd, under 4th

Sports Investors

over

Chris Berman from ESPN....

The "Swami" says...

Seattle 24 Pittsburgh 23

Power Sweep

Under 47 In The Super Bowl!!

Gold Sheet

Seattle 27 Pittsburgh 24

EZ Winners Sports:

Pittsburgh Steelers

====================

DR.BOB Super Bowl XL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle (+4) 23 Pittsburgh 24

The pointspread in the Super Bowl is determined by public perception

more than a normal NFL game because more

amateur money is going to be placed on this game than on any other game

all season. The public deemed Pittsburgh’s

playoff road wins at Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver as more

impressive than Seattle’s two home wins over

Washington and Carolina and thus Pittsburgh is an undeserving 4 point

favorite in this game instead of the 2 or 2 ½

point favorite that they should be. I don’t want to diminish

Pittsburgh’s playoff accomplishments, as beating the

Colts and Broncos on the road is truly a great achievement, but two

games is an awfully small sample size and the

Steelers simply aren’t much better than Seattle when you look at each

team over the course of the season (and even

in the playoffs only). Seattle is getting criticized for playing an

easier schedule than the Steelers and that is

absolutely true, but my math model compensates each team’s statistics

for the level of the opponents that they faced

and those compensated numbers are pretty close. Seattle’s offense was

one of the very best in the NFL this season,

as their balanced attack would averag 5.79 yards per play against an

average NFL defense. That number was derived by

compensating Seattle’s offensive numbers by the defensive numbers of

their opponents (and the level of their

opponent’s opponents) while excluding games against the Colts in week

16 (Indy didn’t play their starters) and

against Green Bay in week 17 (Seattle rested many of their starters).

Seattle’s compensated yards per rush is 4.70

ypr and quarterback Matt Hasselback’s compensated yards per pass play

(including sacks) is 6.91 yppp. The league

average for yards per play is 5.13 yppl (I take kneel downs and

quarterback spikes out of my stats, which is why

that number is different from the official stats you may see), so

Seattle’s offense is 0.66 yppl better than

average. Pittsburgh’s defense would allow 3.66 ypr, 5.35 yppp, and

4.60 yppl to an average offensive team and a

team’s compensated defensive numbers are adjusted depending on

opposing quarterbacks faced. For instance, my ratings

adjust for facing backup Jon Kitna for all but 2 plays in the

Steelers’ first playoff game against Cincinnati

instead of facing All-Pro Carson Palmer. Pittsburgh’s defense is 0.53

yppl better than average, so the Seahawks’

attack has a slim 0.13 yppl advantage against Pittsburgh’s defense.

Seattle has proven themselves against good

defensive teams, averaging 5.5 yppl in games against Jacksonville,

Washington twice, and Carolina – the 4 games that

they played against teams that allowed less than 5.0 yppl for the

season (Green Bay also allowed less than 5.0 yppl,

but Seattle sat their starters in that game). Those teams would combine

to allow 4.8 yppl to an average attack, so

the Seahawks were 0.7 yppl better than average against good defensive

teams, which is the same that they were

overall this season.

Pittsburgh’s offense was without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger in 4

games this season (weeks 6, 9, 10, and 11), and

the Steelers’ attack with Roethlisberger would average 5.67 yppl

against an average NFL defense. The rushing attack

is a bit below average (4.01 ypr compensated; NFL average is 4.13 ypr

when you exclude kneel downs as I do in each

game), but Roethlisberger averaged an impressive 7.90 yppp this season

and would average 7.81 yppp against an

average defensive team. Seattle is better defensively than most people

think, as the Seahawks would allow just 3.76

ypr, 5.64 yppp, and 4.81 yppl to an average NFL team, which isn’t

much worse than Pittsburgh’s compensated defensive

numbers. The Steelers are 0.54 yppl better than average offensively and

Seattle is 0.32 yppl better than average

defensively, so Pittsburgh has a 0.22 yppl advantage when they have the

ball. Pittsburgh faced 4 better than average

defensive teams with Roethlisberger at quarterback (New England in week

3 when the Pats had their secondary intact,

San Diego, Baltimore, and Chicago) and the Steelers averaged 5.1 yppl

in those 4 games against teams that would

allow 4.7 yppl to an average team, so Pittsburgh wasn’t quite as good

offensively against good defensive teams as

they were overall.

I project 5.32 yppl for Pittsburgh in this game and 5.23 yppl for

Seattle by using the compensated numbers for each

team and matching one team’s offensive numbers with the other

team’s defensive numbers. Projected turnovers are only

slightly in favor of Pittsburgh and special teams are slightly in favor

of Seattle. Overall, my math model favors

Pittsburgh by only 0.7 points. Some may argue that Pittsburgh is

playing better now than they played during most of

the season, but you may be surprised to find out that Seattle has

actually played better the last two weeks than

Pittsburgh has. The Steelers averaged 5.13 yppl in their playoff wins

at Indianapolis and at Denver (I left out

their playoff game against Cincinnati because of Palmer’s injury in

that game) and allowed 5.52 yppl, for a

difference of -0.39 yppl. The Colts and Broncos would combine to

out-gain an average NFL opponent at home by an

average of 1.23 yppl, so Pittsburgh was in fact 0.84 yppl better than

an average team in those two games from the

line of scrimmage. Seattle had a yppl differential of +0.99 yppl in

their two playoff victories over Washington and

Carolina (5.38 yppl on offense and allowed 4.39 yppl) and the Redskins

and Panthers would combine to out-gain an

average opponent by 0.24 yppl on the road, so Seattle was 1.23 yppl

better than an average team from the line of

scrimmage in their two playoff wins, which is considerably better than

Pittsburgh’s compensated performance the last

two weeks. So, those of you making a case for the Steelers based on

their playoff results should actually be

favoring Seattle in this game if playoff performance is your criteria

for Super Bowl success – which it shouldn’t be

(a full season of games is much more predictive than just two games).

Another way of calculating a fair pointspread involves using each

team’s individual game ratings and creating a

matrix using those ratings. For instance, Pittsburgh opened the season

with a 34-7 home win over Tennessee. That

game was at home (home field advantage this season was 3.5 points) and

Tennessee was 9.0 points worse than average

this season so the Steelers’ game rating in that week 1 win was +14.5

points (they won by 27 points, - 3.5 for being

at home, and -9 for Tennessee’s average rating equals +14.5 points).

I calculated a game rating for each of the

Steelers’ games and for each of Seattle’s games. I tossed out the 4

games for Pittsburgh that Roethlisberger didn’t

play in and the playoff game against Cincinnati when Palmer was knocked

out on the second play. For Seattle, I

didn’t include their week 16 game against the Colts, who rested their

starters, or the week 17 game against the

Packers when Seattle rested some of their starters. What I have

remaining is 14 game ratings for Pittsburgh and 16

game ratings for Seattle. If I compare each of Pittsburgh’s game

ratings against each of Seattle’s game ratings I

get a 14 by 16 matrix with 224 possible results - with each cell

representing a projected margin of victory/defeat.

I can use that matrix to determine what the median cell is (what the

spread should be) and how many cells have

Pittsburgh with an advantage. The matrix has a median cell of

Pittsburgh by 2 points and has the Steelers with an

advantage in 55.6% of the cells, which would represent their chance of

winning straight up. I have found that any

method of prediction using scoring margins is not as accurate as

predictions using yardage, since turnovers have

such an influence on scoring margins and past turnovers have a

relatively low correlation to future turnovers.

However, these teams project about the same in turnovers, and the

matrix is a good way to dampen the affect of

outliers (i.e. really good or really bad games that would skew the

season numbers), so I thought the use of a matrix

would be very insightful and pretty accurate in this case. The number

that is most important in this game is the

55.6% chance of winning that Pittsburgh has based on the matrix. Using

that percentage, and a standard distribution

of NFL margins of victory, gives Seattle a profitable 59.2% chance of

covering at +4 points (57.8% at +3 ½, 60.2% at

+4 ½). Pittsburgh may be worthy of being called the favorite in this

game, but the line should not be more than -2

or -2 ½ points and Seattle is certainly the percentage play in this

game. I also like the fact that Super Bowl

underdogs with the same or more number of victories (including the

playoffs), are 8-2-1 ATS since Super Bowl 15. I

will consider Seattle a Strong Opinion in this game and I have no

opinion on the total.

Super Bowl Propositions

The only Super Bowl proposition I see with any value is Seattle’s

Matt Hasselbeck to go UNDER in passing yards (the

line ranges from 234 ½ yards to 240 ½ yards). My math model projects

191 net passing yards for Seattle and 14 sack

yards, which gives Hasselbeck 205 gross passing yards. I’ll consider

Hasselbeck Under in gross passing yards a

Strong Opinion.

==========================

Scott Spreitzer

NFL

Event: Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers on 02/05/2006 at 15:20

Condition: Pittsburgh Steelers

Grade: Ungraded

Promotion: I'm laying the points with the Steelers. First the angle. You simply play ON the SB entry that won their conference championship as an underdog when their SB opponent won as a favorite. This angle is a perfect 6-0 with one push. Most recently, Carolina got the money against New England 2 years ago - and Tampa Bay crushed Oakland 3 years ago. On the field, Seattle will be hard-pressed to run the football against the Steelers' 3-4. Seattle has face three teams that use this defense, but 2 came against San Fran & Houston. The only quality 3-4 they faced came against the Cowboys. Alexander was held to 60 yards on 20 carries and the Seahawks barely escaped with a 13-10 home field win...scoring 10 late points. When Pittsburgh has the ball I expect big days receiving for Willie Parker out of the backfield and for TE Heath Miller, one of the best in the league. Also, look for special teams to come into play with the Steelers owning a huge advantage in punt return units. Seattle has been just a tad above average away from home this season, losing to Jacksonville and Washington, beating the Rams by only 6, escaping SFO by only 2 points, and pulling out a 4 point win over a weak Tennessee squad. And, well -- we've seen what the Burgh can do away from home in the playoffs. Add it up and we have a 10-to-14 point win for the Steelers. Pittsburgh minus points is my Super Bowl winner. Thanks! Good Luck! Scott.

========================

Sport: NFL - Props (non-guaranteed)

Game: NFL Props @ Steve Merril on Feb 5 2006 6:30PM

Prediction: Steve Merril

Reason:

Steelers/Seahawks UNDER 9 ½ total points (1st Quarter).

The Super Bowl has become more competive over the past decade as free agency has eliminated the dominant teams of the 1980's and 1990's. This parity has led to some interesting scoring patterns over the past ten years. The level of talent has been equal in many games, which means the head coaches come in with a more conservative gameplan and are waiting for the other side to make the first mistake.

This often leads to high-percentage, short passing plays and extra running plays in the first quarter. This keeps the game clock moving and shortens the quarter and it also prevents scoring opportunities. In fact, there has not been a single point scored in either of the past two Super Bowls and overall the first quarter has averaged just 8.3 points per game over the past ten Super Bowls with ten points or less being scored in eight of those ten games. The past six years has seen 0, 0, 6, 3, 7, and 3 points scored in the opening period.

Both Pittsburgh and Seattle lack Super Bowl experience as only six players combined have ever appeared in the big game. Both head coaches, Bill Cowher and Mike Holmgren have coached in Super Bowls and they will want to start with a very conservative gameplan to minimize mistakes. Both offenses are built around powerful ball-control running games and this should lead to another low-scoring first quarter this year.

Pittsburgh/Seattle UNDER 9 ½ total points (1st Quarter).

==============================================

RANDALL THE HANDLE:

Seattle Seahawks (15 - 3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (14 -5)

Current Line: Pittsburgh –4 –1.20

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a rich football history. They have won four Super Bowls. The ‘Steel Curtain’ teams of the 70’s are still fondly remembered. Players like Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris and Lynn Swann bring back vivid gridiron images. Hailing from a blue-collar community, they have always subscribed to playing hard and working harder. The Steelers current path to this extravaganza is a testament to that. Pittsburgh is the first six-seed to make it to this game. En route, they knocked off the top-seeded Bengals, Colts and Broncos. Even more impressive was winning all of those games away from home. While it is generally accepted that winning on the road in this league is a difficult task, these Steelers have won a remarkable 16 of their past 19 road games. The maturity and poise of Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has been a big reason for their success, both home and away. Big Ben is an impressive 26-4 as a starter and despite attempting to become the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl, he plays with the savvy of a veteran. Offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt has prepared brilliant game plans throughout these playoffs and his troops have executed them to near perfection. On the defensive side, coordinator Dick Lebeau’s efforts may be even more commendable after his schemes stymied three formidable offences. Safety Troy Polamalu is quickly becoming a household name for both his cat-like prowess and his cerebral play. There are many players that we could profile in this space but it is not necessary. Very similarly to the preceding champion Patriots, this group plays as a team and its sum is greater than any of its parts. To identify flaws on this Pittsburgh squad would be like reprimanding your child for getting an ‘A-minus’ on an exam.

The Seattle Seahawks have about as much history as Canada does in soccer. Perennial underachievers, this unfamiliar team has wallowed in mediocrity for years. Since arriving in the NFL in 1976, you would be hard pressed to name any notable players outside of Hall of Fame wide receiver Steve Largent. Tucked away in the northwest corner of the United States, this city is better known as the birthplace of Starbucks than it is for its football team. Don’t think for a minute that oddsmakers aren’t aware of all this. Pittsburgh is football. Seattle is sleepless. The Seahawks hope to change that perception and don’t be surprised if they do. Sure, they came out of the weaker conference. No one can debate that. But is it fair to fault them for dominating their conference? We’ve been guilty of it ourselves but they’ve answered the call each time and then some. This team quietly scored the most points (452) in the NFL this season. They were tops in the red zone, scoring touchdowns nearly 72% of the time from inside opponents’ 20-yard line. QB Matt Hasselbeck quietly has become one of the league’s premier passers having tossed 24 touchdowns this season compared to just nine interceptions. Running back Shaun Alexander is the league’s Most Valuable Player. Much of the offence’s success can be attributed to an unheralded offensive line that employs three Pro Bowlers. Three guys that you likely haven’t heard of but a trio that was responsible for allowing Hasslebeck to be sacked only 27 times this season. As for the defence, they get very little recognition but this unit led the league in sacks (50), had the 2nd best percentage in preventing touchdowns inside the red zone and were 4th ranked in both points allowed and rushing yards allowed. The Seahawks allowed a mere five rushing touchdowns during the regular season, second only to Jacksonville.

In 10 of the past 12 Super Bowls, the favourite has been a 7-point pick or more. Regardless of the outcome, there was an anticipated victor. That is not the case here. Strong arguments can be made for both sides but because of their popularity, the strenuous path they had to follow to get here and the questionable pedigree of their opponent, the Steelers are the fashionable choice. St. Louis, Oakland and New England twice were the preferred and favoured teams in the previous four Super Bowls but all four games resulted in covers by the underdog. In fact, only two of the past 10 favourites have managed a cover in this event. This Seattle team has far better credentials than any underdog in recent memory. The Seahawks can easily win the game. They can also lose a close one and we get the cover. With what they bring to the table, that works for us.

Take: Seattle +4 (Risking 1.5 units).

=======================================

Tom Stryker

WELCOME TO ISSUE #28 OF THE PRE-GAME REPORT!

Tom Stryker's 32-7 ATS Super Bowl XL Payday

#302 PITTSBURGH (-) over Seattle by 14 at 6:20 PM EST

There are a ton of handicappers that try and get cute at Super Bowl time. Not me. When I analyze the “big game” I use the same methods that have made me money all season long.

If you’ve been following my selections, then you know that I’ve made a great deal of profit backing AFC teams when matched up against NFC opponents. You can say what you want about the American Football Conference but the bottom line is simple: Teams in the AFC are better than those in the NFC. If you don’t believe me, then take a look. The facts are right here in print.

Since the start of the 2000 season, AFC favorites have posted a 108-88 ATS record for 55.1 percent when matched up against an NFC foe. If you don’t think that mark is significant, then do the math. If a $100 player invested a “C-Note” on every AFC piece of chalk since Y2K, he would be up $1,120 WITH the vig.

As you know, there are ways to improve our ROI. If our AFC team is favored by -3.5 or more, this conference trend shoots to a powerful 83-52 ATS for 61.4 percent. From there, exclude the AFC’s “Class A” teams (those with a won/loss percentage of .800 or better) and remove the NFC’s bottom feeders (those with a won/loss percentage less than .400). With those two won/loss percentages applied, the AFC record over the NFC explodes to a blistering 37-12 ATS for 75.5 percent. That’s power gentlemen.

With our 37-12 ATS in hand, there is one more parameter we can add to really make it pop. If our “play on” AFC team does NOT enter off a blowout loss of 10 points or more, this conference trend zips to a tremendous 32-7-1 ATS for 82.0 percent. As you probably guessed, Pittsburgh fits this technical situation perfectly.

While doing some research on the Super Bowl, I did discover that favorites of -7 or less are a soft 3-10-1 ATS when matched up against an opponent that enters off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Obviously, this technical situation would go against the Steelers. However, this post season Super Bowl system does NOT work when our chalk is matched up against a team off a blowout victory of 18 points or more. In this set, the favorite is actually 2-0-1 ATS!

Off a pair of SU and ATS wins, Seattle has historically struggled posting a 22-36-2 ATS record. In this role matched up against a foe that enters off a SU and ATS win, the Seahawks dip to a woeful 6-15 SU and ATS including 0-8 ATS if the Seabags faced a non-division opponent last.

All season long I’ve been telling you how much better the AFC is compared to the NFC. Above, I’ve proven that fact with one of the best conference trends I’ve seen in a long time. Respect is certainly given to Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren and the job he’s done this year. But, the Men of Steel are on a mission right now and they won’t be stopped. Take PITTSBURGH. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

==========================================

Bob Balfe

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bob Balfe's Super Bowl Pick

Seattle +4 over Pittsburgh

The Seattle Seahawks may not have played any decent opponent on the road this season. It also can be argued that they recently completed a rather easy road to the Super Bowl. However, the ability of the Seattle running game and the lack thereof their opponents can not go unnoticed. Seattle's one weakness is the pass defense, but Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is not the type of general who is going to pick your defense apart without making mistakes. Obviously, the talk all week has been about Jerome Bettis playing his final game in his home town of Detroit to capture the Super Bowl victory. This is a "feel good" story and Bettis is (was) a great player, but I assure you-the stingy Seattle defense has no tears in their eyes! Bettis is known for his goal-line and short yardage play. Seattle's defense will deny him the opportunity to even be involved in that situation. The Seahawks also have a better RB in Shaun Alexander. Matt Hasselback is no better than Roethlisberger, but he is a lot more experienced. Besides, in all reality, it's not that easy for a 23 year old to lead his team to a Super Bowl victory. Stats and strength of schedule may indicate that Pittsburgh is better, but let's not forget that they almost missed the playoffs altogether and suffered a beat down from backup QB Jon Kitna in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Pittsburgh Steelers are known for running the ball in the second half when they have the lead. We all saw how that almost backfired at them in Indianapolis. That particular game plan will simply not work against the dominant rush defense of Seattle. Pittsburgh's defense is also very good. However, they face a much bigger task simply due to the fact that they will need to pursue the almost impossible goal of containing Shaun Alexander-who, Oh by the way, happens to be the Most Valuable Player in the NFL. The public is slamming the Steelers, and after a season like this, the last thing Vegas wants is to allow the Super Bowl favorite to cash in. I assure you the lines are deceiving. Remember, this is a business. The best year ever for the NFL public bettors occurred in 2005-2006, as 60% of the favorites cashed in this year opposed to a seasonal average of approximately 50%. I like Seattle to cover AND get the outright win. This game should be tight and four points is a little too much. Take the value in Seattle!

====================

Sports Marketwatch

Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers took the hard road to Super Bowl XL, winning three straight road games against the toughest teams in either conference. They’ve been a “public” team all year and this trend will continue. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have quietly been winning – and for first time in franchise history will play in the Big Game. The NFL has never seen a wild card team win three games on the road or a lower seed be favored over a #1 seed. “Regardless of who won the AFC they were going to be favored in the Super Bowl. It was a much tougher conference,” said the 5Dimes line manager.

Pinnacle was one of the first books to post a line on Super Bowl XL. They opened at Pittsburgh -3 and within 15 minutes had moved to -3.5. Simon Noble line manager at Pinnacle reports, “We opened this game with the Steelers as 3-point favorites, and the early money quickly pushed this up to -3.5 and -4 across the market. Once the number stabilized, we’ve had a staggering volume of balanced two-way action.” 5Dimes line manager commented, “The line has pretty much stayed put for 10 days. I don’t believe it will dip below -4, and I’m even starting to see some -4.5.”

I believe the sportsbooks have shaded this line towards the Steelers. It doesn’t take a genius to know the Public would be on the Steelers. It’s really a question of how much the odds makers are able to get away with…and for a Super Bowl they are able to get away with a lot. I believe the sportsbooks opened with 3 pt just see how much demand was going to be on Pittsburgh. They found out in hurry: the Public overwhelmingly sided with Pittsburgh at -3. When they quickly moved to -4 they finally saw some buy-back. The Public will continue to push this line to 5 or even 5.5 by game time.

There is a lot of value in taking Seattle. I believe there is a full 2.5pts of shade. Seattle has a seasoned QB, impressive running game, and solid defense…not that Pittsburgh doesn’t. It comes down to the “Holmgren Factor.” Coach Mike Holmgren is a noted Big Game coach and will have his team prepared to succeed on Super Bowl Sunday.

Seattle +4.5

==============================

Newsletters..Superbowl week

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Marc Lawrence

SEATTLE over Pittsburgh by 3

Welcome to Super Bowl XL in Detroit. Some say it stands

for Seattle's XL-ent Adventure. In truth, it reads more like

the parka size of preference in Detroit this weekend.

While it's not exactly at the top of the most desirable destinations in

the world, it beats the proposed locale – Vladivostok – as a host city

for a runner-up bowl for championship game losers (Anchorage

was booked). Pot shots aside, the game itself is a matchup of two

teams that peaked at season's end, strong enough to earn a berth

in the biggest football game of them all. Pittsburgh's journey has

been historic, to say the least. Three of the Steelers' five losses this

season occurred on the final play of the game. They recorded no

less than NINE ROAD WINS while running the table on the playoff

road, defeating the AFC's #1, 2 and 3 seeds to become the first-ever

#6 seed to make it to the Super Bowl. Unlike 23 of the last 27 Super

Bowl winners that benefited from a week of rest at the onset of the

playoffs, the Steelers find themselves rested for the first time in

four months. Speaking of rest, Pittsburgh head coach Bill Cowher is

14-8 SU with rest in his NFL career, but only 6-11 ATS when favored.

Cowher's clubs also tend to struggle indoors in dome stadiums

where he is just 7-8 SU & 6-8-1 ATS in his career, including 1-4 SU

& ATS (and 0-5 UNDER) against an opponent that is off back-toback

wins. He also comes up empty when favored against teams

from the NFC, going 9-20 ATS – including 1-8 SU & ATS when

laying 4 or less points. While the Steelers are 25-4 SU behind QB

Ben Roethlisberger, Cowher has never covered the spread in a

PM EST

ABC TV

game against the Seahawks in his career, going 2-4 SU & 0-5-1

ATS (favored five times). Mike Holmgren, on the other hand, is 4-1

SU & ATS against Pittsburgh in his career, winning straight-up

both times he was installed as the underdog. The history books tell

us that four NFC teams arrived to the Super Bowl sporting perfect

10-0 SU records at home. All four of them – '85 Chicago (46-10), '86

NY Giants (39-20), '96 Green Bay (35-21), and St. Louis (23-16) –

left with rings. Throughout the course of the playoffs, underdogs

that own the higher win percentage are a glitzy 19-8 SU & 21-5-1

ATS, including 4-0-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. Seattle is a 13-win

team from the regular season and those clubs are 42-21-2 ATS in

the post-season when squaring off a against sub .777 opposition,

including 21-1 SU & 18-4 ATS if they are a dog or favorite of less

than 10 points and own a win percentage of .823 or higher. Before

closing up our database, remember these juicy Super Bowl tidbits:

the last nine Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 6-3 SU & 1-6-

2 ATS; the last 12 favorites to score 30 or less points are 0-11-1

ATS; teams who score 27 or more points are 22-1 SU & 20-2-1

ATS; teams who score less than 20 points are 0-21 SU & 3-17-1

ATS. So what we have is a #1 seeded Seattle squad that has

allowed more than 26 points only ONCE this season, taking points

from a #6 seeded Wild Card team in a complete role reversal from

the championship games (the Seahawks won and covered as a

favorite, the Steelers won as a dog). We're not saying the linesmaker

is wrong. We're saying Seattle is right.

=============================================

ESPN Scouts Inc.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scouts' Edge

These are teams that have traveled very different paths to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh has already made history by becoming the only No. 6 seed to ever make it this far. As the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Seattle has taken advantage of its home-field edge. Despite the seedings, Pittsburgh comes in as the favorite. You can bet, Seattle head coach Mike Holmgren and his team have not let that go unnoticed. Pittsburgh has played the underdog role throughout the playoffs, and now the shoe will be on the other foot.

This game is really going to boil down to the play up front. For the Seahawks to win, their offensive line must play the best game of the season. Alexander is going to get hit early and often. He must continue to show he is willing to run inside and grind out tough yards between the tackles. In pass protection, Seattle's offensive line must be able to adjust on the fly, something that both Indianapolis and Denver could not do versus the blitz-happy Pittsburgh defense.

The Steelers have taken a different approach on offense. We used to talk about their chances of winning or losing resting with the running game. That can't be said anymore, as Roethlisberger has firmly established himself as the man driving Pittsburgh's offense. He has been unflappable thus far but will get a lot of pressure from a very underrated Seattle front seven that finished the regular season ranked first in sacks.

Although neither team could have gotten here without a win streak, it is hard to go against a Pittsburgh team that has completely dismantled the No. 3, No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in pretty easy fashion. For that reason, we look for Cowher to get that elusive first Super Bowl win.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Seahawks 20

============================

Harmon Forecast:

Super Bowl XL - Sunday, Feb. 5, 2006

*Pittsburgh 24 Seattle 23 -- The Steelers, listed as the home team for Super Bowl XL, have chosen to wear the road whites that have been successful three times in the postseason. That means the Seahawks will wear their blue jerseys, worn while winning two home playoff games. Both teams can run the ball. Seattle and RB Shaun Alexander produced the league's third-best rushing attack. Pittsburgh, with Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis, was fifth in the NFL in rushing. Both the Steelers (third) and Seahawks (fifth) had top 5 rushing defenses. So, while both teams would like to run the ball, it won't be easy for either one. As far as the passing game, Pittsburgh's 24th-ranked attack will go against the NFL's 25th-rated passing defense. Seattle's 13th-rated passing offense will face the league's 16th-ranked passing defense. On paper, this seems to have the makings of a great, close game. Then again, many Super Bowls seemed great on paper but turned out otherwise.

=================

ACES RATING KEY FOR MEMBERS

SB = Single Bet. | SB+ = Bet & a 1/2 | SB++ = Bet 3/4 |

DB = Double Bet | DB+ = Double Bet & Dash of Juice |

TB = Triple Bet. Rare! | SW = An Ace Switch ?= Might Add More

FRANK ROSENTHAL

NFL

SUPER BOWL XL

SUNDAY FEBUARY 5TH

SEAHAWKS VS STEELERS

THE ACE TOOK AN EARLY LEAD ON THE STEELERS-3.5 & UNDER 47. WHICH WAY HE'LL WINDUP ON GAME DAY REMAINS A...

?

?

Ace-ace

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pitt -2 1st Half.......................$3,000.00

Total Rushing Yards By Jerome Bettis

Over 39yds................................$800.00

Adding

Total Pass Completion By Ben (qb)

16 1/2

Over.........................................$600. 00

One More ......this Won Is A 85% To Win!!!!!

Will Pitt Have A Rushing

Td ...............$1500 To Win.........$500.00

======================

TY GASBAG SEZ "DON'T BE TOO QUICK TO BET PITTSBURGH IN THE SUPERBOWL"!!!

TY GASBAG SEZ “DON’T BE TOO QUICK TO BET PITTSBURGH IN THE SUPER BOWL”

This year’s Super Bowl line opened with Pittsburgh a 3 point favorite and everyone and their brother jumped on the Pittsburgh Bandwagon and moved the line to 4. It seems as though Seattle just is not getting any respect in this game whatsoever. But Ty Gasbag sez “Whoa Nellie before you bet the Superbowl”, consider some of his fast facts on the game!

(1) Let’s take a look at this game. First of all Pittsburgh didn’t lock up their playoff spot till the last game of the regular season and came into the playoffs the 6th seed in the AFC, SEATTLE WAS THE #1 SEED IN THE NFC!

(2) Yes Pittsburgh beat the perennial favorite Indianapolis 21-18 in the playoffs, but lost to Indianapolis in the regular season 26-7, SEATTLE BEAT INDIANAPOLIS 28-13 as well!

(3) Do you remember Philadelphia was a 5-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season? SEATTLE BEAT PHILLY 42-0!

(4) Common opponent Houston? Pittsburgh beat 27-7, SEATTLE BEAT HOUSTON 42-10!

(5) Seattle leads Pittsburgh in 7 of 8 offensive categories, more 1st downs, more yards per play, more rushing yards, more passing yards, more rushing yards per attempt, and higher passing percentage 65% to 61% on the season! Pittsburgh only leads Seattle in passing yards per attempt 7.9 yards to 7.3 yards, but that is because Seattle had the NFL’s leading rusher and League MVP Shawn Alexander, to hand the ball off to, and it was not necessary to pass.

(6) Pittsburgh is 14-5 on the season, SEATTLE is 15-3!

(7) Why is everyone betting Pittsburgh? Well because there is an East Coast bias involved. Twice as many people wager on football on the East Coast than the West Coast. And don’t forget the AFC has won 6 of the last 8 Superbowl’s as well!

(8) What about head coaching experience in the BIG GAME, Bill Cowher has been their once and lost! Mike Holmgren has been their more times as Head Coach of Green Bay and won it, and as an offensive coordinator for the 49ers in their glory years, when they won it.

(9) I don’t believe the defenses of Pittsburgh’s opponents in the playoffs is nothing to get excited about either, Cincy, Indy or Denver’s defenses didn’t scare to many people. SEATTLE’S DEFENSE WON’T LET PITTSBURGH THROW THE BALL, LIKE PITTSBURGH DID AGAINST, their first 3 opponents, and SEATTLE’S DEFENSE IS PRETTY TOUGH AGAINST THE RUN AS WELL!

In closing I got a gut feeling this is the year the offshore sportsbooks, Vegas, and the bookies make a killing on the Superbowl. As long as they keep taking all the Pittsburgh money, when all is said and done, Pittsburgh is the wrong side in this game!

TY GASBAG’S FINAL SCORE: SEATTLE 31 PITTSBURGH 21

===========================

greg roberts

FOOTBALL PROPS

1) 1ST QUARTER UNDER 7 (+120)

There has been only 1 touchdown scored in the 1st quarter in the last 6 Super Bowls. Lowest scoring quarter for Seattle is the 1st quarter while it's Pittsburgh's second lowest. Seattle also allows less points in the 1st quarter than any other.

2) TOTAL POINTS BY PITTSBURGH UNDER 24' (-110)

Seattle held 12 of its last 13 opponents to less than 24 points and is #2 in red zone efficiency.