Service Plays--SUNDAY

Sebastian:

Baseball:
5* Yankees
5* White Sox
20* Pirates

Football:
Comp-Saints

Totals:
3* Sea/Red UNDER
3* 49ers/Cards UNDER
3* Colts/Titans OVER
3* Lions/Bucs OVER
3* Cow/Raid OVER

Teaser:
20* Redskins & UNDER

Side plays:
7* Vikings
10* Raiders
10* Texans
20* Chiefs
50* Lions

If play:
Winning day/Losing Day:
20* Cards/10* Cards

ATS Football Lock Club

(6 Unit NFL Pro Lock of the Month) San Diego Chargers +4.5
(5 Units) Oakland Raiders -3
(4 Units) Seattle Seahawks +2

Hammerin' Hank Goldberg
SD
BENGALS
TB
NYG
SAINTS

Mychal
AdvantageSports1.com

Phil Steele Power Sweep
4* CHIEFS
3* JAGS
2* COWBOYS
2* PATS

Goodfellas
10* 49ers

Brandon Lane
300 Dime Chargers

50 Dimes
TB, Cincy, KC, NYG, Minn

Larry Ness

(10*) Houston Texans
(10*) Houston/Cincinnati Under
(10*) Dallas Cowboys
(10*) Dallas/Oakland Over

MIKE GODSEY
NFL

TENNESSEE

The Colts defense comes back to earth against Tits running back Chris Brown. In Brown's two starts against the Colts last season, he produced two of his six career 100-yard games. Brown had a career-best 152 yards when the Colts posted a 31-17 win in the Coliseum and followed that with 104 yards in the rematch in the RCA Dome, a 51-24 Colts' victory.

The Colts have given up the occasional big play. Of the 68 carries by the opposition, 60 have produced 130 yards (2.2 per attempt) while the other eight have yielded 150 (18.8 avg.). Think their offensive slump that began in the preseason is over? Not so fast. Heading into Sunday's AFC South game with the Tennessee Titans in Nashville, the Colts rank 23rd in scoring (15.7). The offense has scored only four touchdowns.

In three games, they've faced 11 third-down situations requiring 2 yards or fewer to move the chains. They've converted only four. The Colts are converting only 36.8 percent of their total third downs, 19th best in the league. In 2004, they were No. 7 (42.7 percent).

Maddux Sports FREE Pick
Today's Free Pick is Houston +9.5

THE REAL ANIMAL

Kansas City -1.5

A Play
Regular Plays (10*) Tennessee Titans, (10*) Baltimore Ravens and (10*) Arizona/San Francisco Over

ASA (American Sports Analysts)
Regular Plays (3*) Houston Texans and (3*) Jacksonville Jaguars

ATS Football Lock Club
Top Rated Play (6 Unit NFL Pro Lock of the Month) San Diego Chargers +4.5, Regular Plays (5 Units) Oakland Raiders -3 and (4 Units) Seattle Seahawks +2

Ben Burns Consulting
Top Rated Play (NFL Total of the Week) Indianapolis/Tennessee Over, Top Rated Play (NFL Game of the Week) Washington Redskins, Regular Plays Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Detroit/Tampa Bay Over and San Diego/New England Under

Best Bet
Top Rated Play (1*) Indianapolis Colts

Bobby Cash
NFL Game of the Week (20*) Oakland Raiders, Top Rated Play (15*) Washington Redskins, Regular Plays (10*) New Orleans Saints, (10*) New York Jets and (10*) Atlanta Falcons

California Sports
Special (5* NFL Underdog Game of the Year) Dallas Cowboys, Top Rated Play (4*) Kansas City Chiefs, Regular Plays (3*) Jacksonville Jaguars and (3*) St. Louis Rams

Cobra
Regular Play (3*) Kansas City Chiefs

Cowtown Sports
Top Rated Play (3*) Jacksonville Jaguars, Regular Play (2*) New England Patriots

Dave Cokin
Regular Play (Solid Gold) New York Giants

Dr. Bob Sports
NFL Game of the Week (4*) Philadelphia Eagles, Regular Play (2*) Jacksonville Jaguars, Strong Opinion (1*) San Diego Chargers

Fezzik Sports
Mid-Range Plays (2*) San Diego Chargers +5, (2*) Buffalo/New Orleans Over 38.5, (2*) Dallas/Oakland Over 46.5. Regular Plays (1*) Arizona/San Francisco Over 42.5, (1* Two Team Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles +8 and Seattle Seahawks +8, (1* Two Team Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles +8 and Baltimore Ravens -1, (1* Two Team Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles +8 and Carolina Panthers -1.5

Final Score
Top Rated Play New York Giants

Guaranteed Sports
Top Rated Play (3*) Baltimore Ravens

Hank Goldberg
Regular Plays San Diego Chargers +5, Cincinnati Bengals -9.5, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5, New York Giants -3 and New Orleans Saints -1

Headquarters
Regular Play (5*) Houston Texans

Hilton Contest Top 5
Sunday NFL: #1 Pick Tampa Bay Buccaneers, #2 Pick San Diego Chargers, #3 Pick Washington Redskins, #4 Pick Jacksonville Jaguars and #5 Pick Cincinnati Bengals (First Place Entry in the Hilton has Jacksonville, Houston, Detroit, Washington and Minnesota)

JD's Key
Regular Plays (7*) Cincinnati Bengals and (7*) Philadelphia Eagles, (5*) Buffalo Bills and (5*) Atlanta/Minnesota Over

Kelso Sturgeon
Regular Plays Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49'ers and San Francisco/Arizona Over

LV Sports
Regular Plays (10*) Jacksonville Jaguars and (10*) New England Patriots

Larry Ness
Regular Plays (10*) Houston Texans, (10*) Houston/Cincinnati Under, (10*) Dallas Cowboys and (10*) Dallas/Oakland Over

Las Vegas Lockline
NFL Game of the Week New Orleans Saints

Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks
Regular Play (3*) San Diego Chargers and (3*) Minnesota Vikings

Matt Rivers (Sports Advisors)
Top Rated Plays (300K) San Diego Chargers and (300K) Kansas City Chiefs, Mid Range Play (200K) Atlanta Falcons and Regular Play (100K) Arizona Cardinals

Maxwell
Top Rated Play Kansas City Chiefs, Regular Plays Jacksonville Jaguars and Jacksonville/Denver Under

Power Plays
Top Rated Plays Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals

Raider
Regular Plays New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys

Scott Spreitzer
Top Rated Play (Hammer Game of the Year) New York Giants

Sebastian Sports
NFL Game of the Week (50*) Detroit Lions, Top Rated Plays (20*) Kansas City Chiefs and (20* Two Team Teaser) Washington Redskins + Under, Regular Plays (10*) Houston Texans, (10*) Oakland Raiders and (7*) Minnesota Vikings (Sunday Night Pick Posted by 7:00 PM Eastern)

Special K
Top Rated Play (15*) Arizona/San Francisco Over, Regular Plays (10*) Indianapolis Colts, (10*) Dallas Cowboys and (10*) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday Selections
Regular Plays Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans and New Orleans/Buffalo Over

The Superlock Line
Top Rated Play New Orleans Saints

The Swami
Top Rated Play New England Patriots, Regular Plays Jacksonville/Denver Under, Indianapolis/Tennessee Under and Cincinnati/Houston Under

Tony Basich Sports
Top Rated Play (2*) New York Jets

Total Edge
Top Rated Play (1*) Philadelphia/Kansas City Under

Wizard
Top Rated Play New England Patriots

Friends of Mike Lee
8*wash ,,saints ,,jags
6* jets & det

RealAnimal
5*Indy,
4*NE/Over,
Ariz/Over
Giants
3*Denver Cincy

North Coast
northcoast
3.5 no
3 was & over miinny

DAVE COKIN
HAT-LIONS
WINDOW-JETS
TOTAL-COLTS OV
SYSTEM-49ERS
SG-COWBOYS
REG-SAINTS, VIKINGS

Root
Millionaire- Tennesse AFC SOUTH GAME OF MONTH

Chairman- Denver

Personal Favorite- KC

DR BOB

NFL Best Bet Sides

4 Star Selection

Philadelphia (+2) 31 KANSAS CITY 20

02-Oct-05 10:00 AM Pacific Time

Kansas City is 2-1, but the Chiefs are not really a good team – a truth that was exposed on Monday night in Denver. Kansas City is not as good offensively as they've been in recent years, as they've averaged just 5.4 yards per play (against teams that allow a combined 5.2 yppl on defense) and the Chiefs did not solve their defensive issues with their off-season acquisitions, as they have given up 6.0 yppl to teams that have averaged a combined 5.1 yppl on offense this season. Philadelphia, meanwhile, was rated by me as the best team in the NFL entering the season and they've done nothing to disprove that evaluation (I actually expected them to lose straight up at Atlanta based on a very negative week 1 indicator). Philly has been 0.8 yppl better than average offensively (6.6 yppl against teams that combine to allow 5.8 yppl), 0.8 yppl better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that combine to average 5.5 yppl on offense) and have been one of the league's best in special teams for years under coach Reid (although negative in special teams so far this season). My initial 2005 ratings would have favored Philly by 5 points in this game and using this year's games only would favor the Eagles by 6 ½ points. In addition to the significant line value is a 62-15-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors the Eagles in this game and I certainly don't mind taking Philadelphia this week given their long term track record under coach Andy Reid, who is now 64-34-3 ATS in all game when not laying more than 9 points – including 34-9-1 ATS against a team coming off a loss. The Eagles are a 4-Star Best Bet as an underdog or pick in this game and I'll Downgrade Philly to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite.

2 Star Selection

JACKSONVILLE (-3.5) 24 Denver 13

02-Oct-05 10:00 AM Pacific Time

Denver looked very good in their Monday night home win over division rival Kansas City, but the Broncos don't figure to be as ready to play this road game on a short week. Teams that win on Monday night at home are only 5-21 ATS in non-division road games the next week since '96 (1-11 ATS as a dog) and Denver has been one of the league's most inconsistent teams in the post-Elway era. Since 2000 the Broncos are just 8-23 ATS the next week after winning and covering the spread, including 4-20 ATS after scoring 24 points or more, so don't expect Denver's offense to have another good game today. The Broncos have actually been just average offensively this season despite Monday's good showing, as they have averaged 5.3 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense for the season. Jacksonville has become one of the better defensive teams in the NFL and this season the Jags have yielded just 4.4 yppl to good offensive teams Seattle, Indianapolis, and the Jets, who combine to average 5.9 yppl in the games that they didn't face the Jaguars. Jacksonville's offense is still only average (4.9 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl on defense) and Denver does have a solid defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.4 yppl on offense), but my ratings favors the Jaguars by 7 points in this game. Aside from the trends mentioned above, the Broncos also apply to a negative 69-112-7 ATS road letdown situation as long as they are not getting more than 4 points. I'll lay 4 points or less with Jacksonville in a 2-Star Best Bet and I'll Upgrade Jacksonville to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 3 points or less.

Downgrade Jacksonville to a Strong Opinion if they become a favorite of more than 4 points.

3 Star Selection

Green Bay (+7.5) 21 CAROLINA 20

03-Oct-05 06:10 PM Pacific Time

I've gone against Green Bay as a Strong Opinion or in Best Bet in all three weeks so far this season, but the situation is too good for me to pass playing on the Packers tonight. Teams that are 0-3 or worse can be dangerous as big road underdogs since their opponent has to be feeling pretty comfortable being favored by a big number at home against a winless team. The fact is that winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 46-13-3 ATS as a road underdog of more than 6 points against a team with a win percentage of less than .666, including 24-1-1 ATS since 1994. Green Bay also applies to a 47-15-2 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on their 2 home losses the last 2 weeks while Carolina applies to a negative 60-121-6 ATS situation and a negative 47-117-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator. If any team is prone to a letdown it is the Panthers, who have a strong tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition in recent years. Since their Super Bowl year of 2003, the Panthers are an incredible 12-6 straight up and 15-2-1 ATS as an underdog and a mind-boggling 10-11 straight up and 5-16 ATS when favored. This season the Panthers have lost straight up as favorites to the Saints and Dolphins but managed to beat the two-time defending Super Bowl Champs New England as an underdog. My ratings do favor Carolina by 9 ½ points, but line value doesn't seem to matter when the Panthers are involved in a game and the situations and indicators that favor Green Bay are worth a whopping 11 points. The Packers are a 3-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and I'll Downgrade Green Bay to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of less than 7 points (Strong Opinion at less than +6 points).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Strong Opinions

San Diego (+5.5) 20 NEW ENGLAND 21

02-Oct-05 10:00 AM Pacific Time

The Chargers got their first win in convincing fashion in pulling away from the Giants for a 45-23 Sunday night win and that momentum should carry over to this week since teams that win their first game of the year in week 3, after an 0-2 start, tend to play with renewed enthusiasm in week 4. In fact, such teams are 39-20-1 ATS over the years and San Diego applies to a 33-4-1 ATS subset of that situation. The Chargers also apply to a 79-32-5 ATS early season statistical match-up indicator, so the technical analysis certainly is in their favor. However, the Patriots have been the more impressive team so far this season, especially on defense, as they've averaged 5.3 yards per play while allowing only 4.9 yppl to a good schedule of teams (Oakland, Carolina, and Pittsburgh) while San Diego has 5.9 yppl to 5.5 yppl advantage against a mediocre schedule of teams (Dallas, Denver, NYG). The Patriots are really hurting in the secondary after an injury last week knocked All-Pro safety Rodney Harrison out for the season. Starting corners Tyrone Poole and Randall Gay are already out with injuries, so depth in the secondary could hurt the Patriots. Harrison's absence is a particular concern against a Chargers' offense that relies on TE Antonio Gates to catch passes in the middle of the field, as Gates would normally be covered by Harrison. My updated ratings favor New England by 4 ½ points in this game, so the line is pretty fair, but my concern with playing against the Patriots as a Best Bet is their outstanding 28-8-3 ATS record in their last 39 home games, including 22-3-3 ATS when not coming off a loss. So, when the Pats are playing well they usually continue to play well if they are in Foxboro. However, the Patriots have covered the spread in 68.2% of their regular season games since Tom Brady took over at quarterback so that trend is actually not as significant as it appears to be (New England's average spread differential in all regular season games with Brady is 4.7 points and the average spread diff at home when not off a loss is 5.5 points). Still, that team trend is enough to get me off San Diego as a Best Bet and I'll consider the Chargers a Strong Opinion in this game.

Minnesota (+5.5) 21 ATLANTA 22

02-Oct-05 01:15 PM Pacific Time

Minnesota must be relieved to finally have a win under their belt and they will likely play with a renewed enthusiasm this week with a chance to get to .500 with another good effort. Teams that win their first game of the year in week 3, after an 0-2 start, are 39-20-1 ATS in week 4 and Minnesota applies to a 33-4-1 ATS subset of that situation. The Vikings certainly aren't as bad offensively as people are making them out to be after scoring just 21 points in their 2 losses to open the season. Those losses were due to turnovers rather than their inability to move the ball. The Vikings averaged a decent 5.3 yards per play in those losses to Tampa Bay and Cincinnati (who are both playing well defensively this season), but 12 turnovers in those games made it impossible to win. Turnovers are mostly random in the NFL and the Vikings certainly weren't going to continue to turn the ball over at anywhere near that rate. In fact, Minnesota committed zero turnovers in their win against the Saints (while the Saints had 4) and the Vikings are averaging a solid 5.5 yppl in 3 games against teams that combine to allow 5.1 yppl on defense. That isn't as good as in the Randy Moss days, but it's still pretty good. Defense has been the Vikings' major problem in recent years and upgrades in personnel have not changed that so far this season. Minnesota has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that combine to average 5.6 yppl on offense and the Vikes are about average overall from the line of scrimmage. Atlanta has been better than expected so far this season, rating at 0.5 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that allow 4.9 yppl) and 0.6 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that have averaged 5.6 yppl on offense). Atlanta also has an advantage over Minnesota in special teams and my ratings favor the Falcons by 8 points. Aside from the 33-4-1 ATS week 4 angle, Minnesota also is a road underdog of more than 5 points prior to their bye week (now 51-28-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season with Washington 2 weeks ago at Dallas and Cleveland at Indy last week). The situations favoring Minnesota are worth 7 points and Minnesota has a solid 56% chance of covering at the current line of +5 ½ points, which is good enough to make the Vikings a Strong Opinion. I'll Upgrade Minnesota to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 7 points or more.

San Francisco (+3) 23 ARIZONA 20

Mexico City

02-Oct-05 05:35 PM Pacific Time

The 49ers were 2-14 last season and both of their wins came by the same 31-28 score with overtime fieldgoals. This game probably won't be as high scoring, but the 49ers look like the side to take. San Francisco has certainly been more competitive than the Cardinals so far this season, beating the Rams on opening day and then losing by just 4 points last week to the Cowboys after leading most of the game. Arizona has lost all 3 of their games this season by an average score of 14-32. There aren't too many instances of an 0-3 or worse team being favored, but teams that are winless with 3 or more losses are only 9-18 ATS when favored by more than 1 point against a team that is not also winless. Game 4 teams that 0-3 are 4-16 ATS as a favorite or pick and Arizona also applies to another 25-54-7 ATS game 4 angle that is 6-24-3 ATS when applying to favorites of 2 points or more. I also don't mind taking 3 points or more in a game between two pretty even teams. The 49ers' Tim Rattay has always been a pretty decent quarterback when healthy and San Francisco has been only a bit worse than average offensively through their first 3 games (5.1 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.3 yppl on defense) and the Niners' defense isn't as bad as it appears to be, as they've given up 6.3 yppl to good offensive teams that average a combined 5.9 yppl on offense. Arizona, meanwhile, has been 0.7 yppl worse than average on offense (4.8 yppl against teams that combine to allow 5.5 yppl) and average defensively (5.9 yppl against teams that average 5.9 yppl on offense). The Cardinals should be a bit worse offensively with Josh McCown playing quarterback for an injured Kurt Warner, as McCown averaged just 5.0 yards per pass play last season (the NFL average is 6.2 yppp). My ratings favor Arizona by 1 point on this neutral field (the game is being played in Mexico) and the situation is worth 5 points, so I'll call for a 3 point Niners' victory and I'll take San Francisco as a Strong Opinion. Upgrade SF to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 4 points or more.