SERVICE REPORTS

ALL AMERICAN
Pitt,Den,Dall,Minn,GB

A-PLAY
10*Chi,Balt,Den

ALATEX
10*SD,Balt,Minn,GB

AZTEC.
4*SF,3*Stl

ATS
8*Pitt,Balt,5*GBOver,4*Minn,TB,

BETTORS EDGE
3*GB,AZ

BUCKEYE
3*Mia,KC

CAPTAIN
20*Minn,15*NYJ,Den

BOBBY CASH
25*Cincy,15*Pitt

COMPUSPORTS
10*Den,5*StlMia,SF,DetUnder

COMPUMAN
3*Mia,Atl,TB

COBRA
3*Sea,Vleve,Mia

DOC ENTERPRISE
5*Pitt,4*Philly,NYJ

DR BOB
3*Mia,Sea,Cleve,2*Minn,Denn,SF,Dall

EDGE
10*Sea,Hou

FINAL SCORE
Pitt

HILTON CONTEST
KC,NYJ,Mia,Minn,Cleve

HANK GOLDBERG
Mia,Buff,KC,GB,NYG

INSIDE INFO
2*Cincy,Pitt,1*Balt,Det

JD'S KEY
7*NYJ,NYG

JIM FIEST
10*Pitt

MCCONKIE
10*Mia,Den

MIKE LEE
8*Den,SF,6*Buff,Minn

MIKE WARREN
3*Stl,2*Oak,GB

NATIONWIDE
1.5*NYJ1*Cleve,Balt

NORTHCOAST
GOY*Pitt,3.5*Mia,3*Buff,GB

PLATINUM
GOY*Pitt,8*Cleve,Balt,Den,NYG

POINTWISE
4*Pitt,3*Den,Cleve,Atl,2*Mia,Buff,NE

POWER PLAYS
GOY*Pitt

PREFERRED PICKS
4*Pitt,3*Wash,Minn,Den

PRIVATE PLAYERS
GOY*Den,5*Mia,SFOver,4*SF,Minn,Cincy
Under,DenUnder,3*Pitt,Dall

PROBABILITY
4*TEASER-Philly,Oak

PROFESSOR
3*Atl,TB,Stl

RAIDER
5*NO

RAJUN CAJUN
NO,Pitt,Balt

REED HARRIS
20*Pitt,10*NYJ

SUPERLOCK
Cincy,Minn

SYCAMORE
Oak,Indy,SF

SWAMI
Pitt,Cleve,Balt

TEXASSPORTSWIRE
5*Den,4*Pitt,3*Buff,TB

TIPPS
20*Pitt,15*Cleve,TB,GB,Mia,NYJ

TOTAL EDGE
SFUnder,StlOver

TRULINE
Denver

WAYNE ROOT
TopFORTUNE-Det
BOARD- Mia,
EDGE-Cleve,
MILL-Buff,
CHAIR-Hou

WIZARD
Pitt,NYG,Wash,NYJ

WON CLUB
Indy

If Pittsburgh goes down, plenty of the services are going to be upset. I never saw so many services on the same side like this before. Tons of GOY's on the Steelers.

That seems to happen alot.

probably won't happen today cause I am not on the Steelers too. Only when I have a play all the services are on do they lose. Should be safe today.

Go KC!

MC

NCAA SELECTIONS

NEW ORLEANS BOWL : December 17th @8pm ET on ESPN2
Cincinnati (7-6) At New Orleans, LA N Texas (7-5)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Cincinnati: 105---230---23---2.4-91.7
N Texas: 195-----30---14---3.1---86.8

Tuesday, December 10, 2002

North Texas is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams since '98,but have won the L/2 ATS including earlier this year vs TCU, a 16-10 SU loss but ATS win as 12' pt AD's. Cincinnati beat that same TCU team in the season opener 36-26 as a 3' pt HF. The Bearcats are 2-0 SU & ATS vs current SBC teams since '98. These two teams played 16 straight years when both were members of the Missouri Valley Conference (last met 1973). NT leads the series 8-7-1 SU. The last meeting was a 52-3 blowout by UC. This will be the Bearcats' third straight bowl game which is a school record and they are 1-2 SU and ATS in the post season under HC Rick Minter. The Bearcats have been to the Motor City Bowl twice where they lost SU & ATS to MAC teams the last 2 years, and the Humanitarian Bowl where they defeated Utah St.UC is really fortunate to be here after a 2-5 SU start and their players and coaches have made that known. They have 13 senior starters compared to just 8 for NT. NT should however should have the home edge as they are here for the second straight year and their fans travelled very well last year to New Orleans. UC, on the other hand, had a very difficult time getting people to attend the Motor City Bowl which is much closer to home than this one.Each of their appearances in that game established a new low in attendance forthat bowl. UC also had just 10 days to sell tickets and Bowl packages to their fans which is the most compact time frame in the NCAA this year. The Bearcats were just 2-5 SU vs their 7 bowl eligible foes but they were 5-2 ATS. They were the only CUSA team to defeat both TCU and Louisville who are both going to bigger bowls. Four of their 5 SU losses to the bowl eligible teams were by a combined 17 points. They also almost defeated Ohio St but they dropped 4 straight passes in the endzone to end that game. UC was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2002 with 4 straight covers including their upset at Louisville which delivered a Thursday Night ESPN Play Winner.

The Bearcats come in with our #46 rated offense and our #43 rated D. The offense did struggle at times in 2002 but it is a very potent unit that had 4 layers on offense make either first or second team CUSA led by soph QB Gino Guidugli. Guidugli is avg 255 ypg (55%) with a 21-16 ratio. He struggled at midseason but in their final four Guidugli had 259 ypg (54%) and a super 10-3 ratio vs a much weaker slate of opposing defenses. In fact UC faced their weakest opposing defenses in three of their L/5 games. RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1276 yds (4.4) and 15 TD's on the ground. He is the CUSA's career TD leader. UC has the most talented WR corps in CUSA as WR LaDaris Vann has 70 rec (12.1) and has recorded at least 1 reception in 45 straight games, a UC record. WR Jon Olinger has great size at 6-3 225 and solid speed. He was the top deep threat with 20.1 ypc and 7 TD's and could create a big problem for the NT CB's who avg just 5-11 184. The UC OL paved the way for 3.5 ypc rush and allowed 24 sacks which are very average numbers. UC did gain 409 yds on a very tough TCU defense that held NT to just 219 yds. UC is +4 in TO ratio and avg 404 ypg total offense while their D allows 318 ypg. UC allowed 381 ypg in their first five but just 253 ypg total defense in their next 7 before allowing 458 yds to E Carolina in their finale. The DL allowed 200 ypg rush (3.9) in their L/2 games but had allowed just 66 ypg (2.1) in their previous 4 games. They will be facing a huge size deficit here as NT avg's 294 lbs per man on their OL with 3 senior starters while UC's DL also has 3 senior starters but avg's just 247lbs per man, and their top backup is just 205 lbs. DE Antwan Peek was the #1 tackler with 90 and also had 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tfl. The LB's accounted for nearly half of their 33 team sacks but their tackle counts were low, as UC blitzes a lot leaving their DB's in man coverage. Their experienced DB's are #18 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing just 184 ypg (52%) and a 12-16 ratio. CB Blue Adams led the team with 6 int's, two of which he returned for TD's and SS Doug Monaghan was the #2 tackler with 88 despite missing their finale due to injury.

When NT made the trip here LY all the talk was about how they were onlythe 3rd team in history to play in a bowl with a losing record. NT is 7-5 SU this year with 6 wins vs SBC foes. The Eagles were 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS vs non-conf teams but all 3 wins were as DD dogs at the start of the year. They did cover against Texas losing 27-0 as a 35 pt AD. Last year they made the trip to NO but forgot to show up for the game as they were crushed 45-20 by Colo St as an 11 pt dog. Of all the bowl teams LY, they returned the most starters with 19, so this team does have bowl experience. NT is a team known for their defense but has seen their offense come to life scoring 30+ pts in 3 of their final 4 games. The offense, which lost starting QB Scott Hall after the 1st game, struggled under rFr QB Andrew Smith. Smith did have 206 yds in the season finale at Middle Tenn. He is avg just 90 ypg (47%) with a 7-8 ratio. RB Kevin Galbreath had 1168 yds (4. but most of it came late vs SBC foes with 792 in the last 6 games. #2 TB Patrick Cobbs (PS#108) has 732 yds (4.7). The defense is led by the SBC Player of the Year, DL Brandon Kennedy. Kennedy led the SBC with 24 tfl and had 9 sks. He and 5 other defenders were voted to the 1st Tm SBC, while 3 others made the 2nd Tm. They have our #36 defense which allowed 14.4 ppg with 43 sks. The Eagles gave up 28 or more points just once (vs Alabama).They held TCU, a team that avg 31 ppg, to their lowest output of the year (16). They shutout an Idaho offense that had avg'd 21 ppg in 3 games vs the Pac 10 this year. The Eagles' defense allows 122 ypg on the ground and 167ypg through the air (#44 pass D rankings). Surprisingly despite 25 takeaways by their aggressive defense, the Eagles are just +1 in TO's, due to the inexperience of their freshman QB. NT comes in with our #61 rated special teams unit led by 2nd Tm SBC P Brad Kadlubar. He is avg 42.3 ypp, with 24 punts inside the 20 with only 9 TB's and 1 blocked. The Eagles' leading KR & PR is soph WR Ja'Mel Branch who is avg just 18.7 yds on KR's and 7.8 yds on PR's. True frosh K Nick Bazaldua is 22 of 28 on XP and 9 of 14 on FG with a long of 44 but has had 2 kicks blocked. The special teams defense allows just 18.3 yds on KR's but 11.3 yds on PR's. UC is rated #102 as they allow 22.6 yds per KR and 11.5 yds per PR. True frosh P Chet Ervin is avg 37.7 ypp with a net of just 30.8. He has had 2 blocked while UC has blocked one. Former Lou Groza Award Winner Jonathan Ruffin was a solid 17-20, including 3 of 5 from 40+ with a long of 49. KR Tedric Harwell emerged down the stretch with 23.9 yds per KR while PR Tye Keith is avg 8.2. NT only rates a slight edge here as their opponents were weaker and UC has the edge in FG's which are not accounted for in our overall rankings.

NT may have a winning record but they have been outgained by 10 ypg this year while UC has outgained their foes by 91 ypg. NT has the stronger record but 6 wins came vs weak SBC foes. UC has the edge of having just played 11 days ago so they should show no rust while NT has been off almost 2 weeks longer than UC. Teams with less than 20 days between their lastgame and their bowl are 7-2-1 ATS. Teams that lost in the same bowl the previous year were 5-2 ATS in that bowl the next year from 1996-2000 but were just 1-4 ATS last year. There has been no number posted on this game as of yet but we will call for the Bearcats to win by 10 and let the linesmaker decide who we like.

FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 N Texas 17 RATING: NO PLAY

GMAC BOWL : December 18th @ 8pm ET on ESPN2
Louisville (7-5) At Mobile, AL Marshall (10-2)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Louisville 115---210---27---2.5--89.4
Marshall 70---330---29---2.1----80.6

Tuesday, December 10, 2002

For the 2nd straight year the GMAC Bowl has tried to set up a future NFL QB duel. Last year QB Byron Leftwich outlasted ECU's David Garrard (now a Jacksonville Jaguar) in the highest scoring bowl ever, 64-61 in 2 OT's. Another QB battle will likely take place here. These teams have had just one recent meeting and that came in the 1998 Motor City Bowl with Marshall revailing 48-29 as a 3 pt dog. It is disappointing for the Cards to be here as they were touted as a dark horse National Titlecontender with a Heisman hopeful at QB prior to the season. The Cards have played their last 2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, however, and their players are excited about the opportunity to play here because they have 13 players from Alabama. Their fan following should remain strong as they have taken 55,000 fans over the last 2 years to the Liberty Bowl. HC John L. Smith is 1-4 SU & ATS in his career in bowls. He has turned UL into a perennial power in CUSA and this is their 5th bowl in the 5 years since he took over. UL had only played in 5 bowls in their history prior to Smith taking over. This will be the third bowl game for both of these experienced senior QB's and Dave Ragone is 1-1 both SU & ATS while Leftwich is 2-0 SU & ATS with both of his victories coming vs CUSA foes. UL did not fare well vs tougher foes in 2002 as they were just 2-4 both SU & ATS vs bowl caliber teams (including KY) while posting 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs foes with losing records. They lost by a 27-24 margin vs bowl eligible foes. UL does have a surface edge as the Herd are just 2-7 ATS their last 9 on grass. Both teams have 10 senior starters. The Cards are 13-8 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite. Marshall is 1-6 ATS as a dog since 2000 in the regular season, but are 3-1 ATS as a bowl dog the last 5 years. Marshall is also coming off an emotional victory in the MAC Championship game "taking the ring back" from Toledo who beat them last year. Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to Houston, which cost them a share of the CUSA Title.

Louisville comes in with our #84 rated offense and our #41 rated D. QB Ragone is avg 224 ypg (55%) with a solid 23-10 ratio. He was the CUSA Offensive POY for an unprecedented 3rd straight year. Ragone is very crafty and also had 521 gross rush yds as he is not afraid to take a hit at 6-4, 255. RB Henry Miller is the top rusher with 595 yds (4.3) and 12 TD's. He was injured down the stretch and avg'd just 14 ypg in their last 3 but should be 100% for this game. WR Damien Dorsey was the top receiving threat with 52 grabs (14.5). He was 1st Tm CUSA at WR and as a PR. TE Ronnie Ghent was Ragone's favorite target prior to being injured in their 6th game and there is a chance he may return here. Despite missing the last 6 games Ghent was a 1st Tm CUSA selection giving UL that honor at the TE position for the 6th straight year. The OL battled injuries and inexperience all year allowing 43sacks while paving the way for just 3.1 ypc. Versus their six bowl eligible foes they allowed 27 of those 43 sacks and paved the way for just 1.6 ypc. Four of those opponents, however, have Top 45defenses while Marshall's just #79. The Cards' defense is a very solid unit that was very consistent in 2002. DB Curry Burns and LB Rod Day each topped 100 tackles and both were 2nd Tm CUSA. DE Dewayne White was named to the 1st Tm CUSA defense and led the team with 9.5 sacks while the other DE, Devon Thomas, added 7 sacks. The Cards front four allowed just 114 ypg rushing (2. while the team recorded 33 sacks. Their DB's are #34 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 203 ypg (48%) but with a 17-8 ratio. In 2000-2001 the Cards had an NCAA best 96 sacks and their 44 interceptions were #2 in the NCAA over that span. They were +11 TO's in 2000 and +14 in 2001. This year they are -13 in TO ratio but the defense forced 7 TO's in their last 3 games after forcing just 8 in their first 9. The Cards avg'd 339 ypg total offense in 2002 while their D surrendered 318 ypg. As mentioned, the offense struggled vs tougher opponents and interestingly they had an avg yardage edge of 412-293 vs the weaker opponents while the bowl caliber teams outgained them 342-267.

This is Marshall's 6th straight bowl. They have gone every year since moving back to the IA level in '97. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and the only loss was in their 1st bowl back in '97, so they have won 4 straight including 3 wins against current CUSA teams in those bowls. They also have won Their only regular season game against a current CUSA team, defeating Army 35-25 as a 5 pt AD in '97.Marshall comes in with our #18 rated offense and our #79 rated defense. The Herd offense is led by Leftwich who was a Heisman candidate and will probably be a 1st Round DC next year. He is avg 365 ypg (a super 69%) with a solid 26-9 ratio. He has five 400+ yd games including 404 yds in the MAC Championship game vs Toledo. He sat down in the 2H of a lot of games this year or his numbers would be even higher. He has been slowed with a leg injury, but missed only one game and one other start Because of it. In the last few games he has been hobbled and operated from the shotgun all game. He led the comeback victory against Toledo throwing the game winner with :40 left to win 49-45 as a 4 pt HF. He was voted the MAC MVP for the 2nd year in a row. He has 3 main receivers, each with over 850 yds receiving. They are Denero Marriott with 76 rec (11.3), Josh Davis with 73 rec (16.0) and Darius Watts with 68 rec (14.7). Marshall's running game has been up and down all year. They avg 128 ypg, but in their two games vs bowl teams this year they avg'd just 40 ypg. The running game hasbeen mostly split between 2 RB's: Brandon Carey has 642 yds (4.6) with two 100 yd games and Franklin Wallace has 539 yds (4.7) also with two 100 yd games. The Herd's offensive line has also played very well this year giving up just 18 sacks on 531 pass attempts. Marshall's defense has improved as the year has gone on. They have done very well vs the pass giving up just 158ypg and only allowing 48% completions. The Herd's weakness however has been against the run where they have allowed 182 ypg (4.4).

The Cards rate a MASSIVE edge on special teams at #4 in our ratings while Marshall is back at #81. In 2002 the Cards have blocked an NCAA best 11kicks in 12 games including 9 punts. KR Broderick Clark was honored as the CUSA Special Teams POY avg an NCAA best 31.8 yds per KR. Clark matched the school and league marks with a pair of return TD's, including a CUSA record 100 yd return vs Kentucky. PR Damien Dorsey was 1st Tm CUSA and was #9 in the NCAA with 15.4 yds per PR including a TD. K Nate Smith was 12 of 19 on FG's with a long of 52, however he was just 4 of 9 from 40+. Smith also doubled as the P after replacing Wade Tydlacka and avg'd 36.5 yds per boot while dropping 16 inside the 20. Tydlacka still handles the KO's and UL is allowing a solid 19.2 yds per KR. The Cards avg'd just 32.1 net yds per punt but that number actually improved down the stretch when Smith was inserted as the P and they reverted to the old school rugby style of punting, virtually eliminating the chance of a big return. Marshall's Curtis Head handles both the kicking and the punting. He hit 15 of 20 FG's with a long of 53, but was just 5 of 9 from 40+ and 44 of 48 on XP's. Head is avg 41.9 ypp with 11 inside the 20 and only 1 TB. The MU kick coverage teams are giving up only 19 yds per KR but 14.2 per PR. The Herd has just 1 punt block and gave up 1 PR for a TD. The return team is avg only 15.9 yds on KR's and a poor 5.2 yds on PR's.

Marshall has less time off since their last game was played on Dec 7th and UL played last on Nov 30th. MU also has the edge of being familiar with the bowl having played here last year. They also have done better in bowl games as it is their chance in the national spotlight and L'ville has to be disappointed to end up here after starting off the year with much higher hopes. Marshall has the edge on offense with the much stronger O-line but the Cards have the defensive edge as well as the special teams edge. UL has not played well vs bowl caliber teams this year while Marshall's D has gotten stronger down the stretch. This is an important game for Marshalls program and the MAC has done very well in recent bowls and we side with the motivated Herd who have the intangibles on their side as long as they are a dog (line not known at presstime).

FORECAST: Marshall 31 Louisville 30 RATING: 2H MARSHALL (if dog)

THE GOLD SHEET

SUMMARY OF PLAYS

NCAA BOWL PREDICTIONS
Cincinnati 27 - North Texas 14
Marshall 38 - Louisville 32
HAWAII 37 -Tulane 21
Ucla 22 - New Mexico 20
Texas Tech 42 - Clemson 33

NFL KEY RELEASES
CLEVELAND by 8 over Indianapolis
TAMPA BAY by 18 over Detroit
OVER 45 points in the Seattle-Atlanta game

NBA KEY RELEASES
ORLANDO by 18 over Golden State (Fri., Dec. 13)
BOSTON by 18 over Chicago (Monday, Dec. 16)
HOUSTON by 15 over Indiana (Wednesday, Dec. 1

NCAA BASKETBALL KEY RELEASES
ILLINOIS by 22 over Temple (Sat. Dec. 14 Day)
PORTLAND Plus over UCLA (Sat. Dec. 14)
TEXAS TECH by 25 over New Mexico (Wed. Dec. 1

DETAILED WRITEUPS

COLLEGE BOWL ANALYSIS
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
CINCINNATI (6-6) vs. NORTH TEXAS (7-5)
Tuesday, Dec. 17 Night at the SuperDome in New Orleans, LA (Artificial Turf)
Cincinnati 27 - North Texas 14 —With so many teams turning to spread offenses and “flippy” football, must confess we have a soft spot for North Texas’ old-school formula for success—smashmouth ground game & swarming defense. That combination led Mean Green to undefeated Sun Belt campaign and 2nd straight N.O. Bowl invitation. But lack of offensive balance has made it difficult for NT to step up in class. Huge edge to Cincy at QB. Confident Bearcat Guidugli is already re-writing school record book in only his soph season; RS frosh Mean Green counterpart A. Smith completed only 47% TY for paltry 90 ypg passing, with 8 ints. and only 7 TDP. UC sr. WRs Olinger (6-3, 225; 1007 YR) & Vann (45 straight games with at least 1 catch) a tough matchup for NT 2ndary that lacks top-notch cover guys. And stalwart sr. RB McCleskey (1276 YR; 177 carries without a fumble prior to recovering his own drop in reg.-season finale) will keep honest Mean Green star DT Kennedy (5-10, 325!). Bet against NT main weapon sr. RB Galbreath (1168 YR) running wild vs. active Cincy front 7 (only 134 ypg rushing, 3.5 ypc). And if Smith forced to air, pass-rushing sr. DE Peek (27 career sacks) & NFL-caliber sr. CB Blue Adams (6 ints.) will be waiting. Veteran Bearcats (6-1 vs. spread last 7 games) & their large group of departing srs.—calloused by back-to-back close bowl losses—ready, willing and able to notch convincing postseason win.

GMAC BOWL
MARSHALL (9-2) vs. LOUISVILLE (7-5)
Wednesday, December 18 Night at Mobile, Alabama (Grass Field)
Marshall 38 - Louisville 32 —Plenty of NFL scouts will be in attendance, as two of nation’s top sr. QBs face off. Marshall star Leftwich has thrown for more than 4000 yds. in each of last 2 seasons, and he passed for 805 yds in last 2 games despite being hobbled by ankle injury that forced Herd to work almost exclusively out of shotgun formation. After 11-2campaign LY, culminating in dominating bowl win over BYU, inconsistent L’ville was good enough TY to upset Fla. State and bad enough to lose reg.-season finale by 17 at lowly Houston. Tough-minded QB Ragone was named C-USA Offensive Player of Year for 3rd straight season despite struggling to develop rapport with his rebuilt WR corps and struggling to stay uprightbehind his poor-protecting OL (43 sacks!). Marshall has better WRs inquantity and quality, and veteran Herd OL has several pro prospects. Sure,Cards have more impact players on defense than soft-up-front Marshall.But L’ville hasn’t been able to consistently establish ground attack, and Card stop unit (33 takeaways LY, only 15 TY!) not creating a lot of short-field opportunities. If game close down stretch, wouldn’t mind being on side of Leftwich, who led Herd back from 38-8 halftime deficit in thrilling 64-61, 2- OT bowl win over East Carolina on this field LY. Still, Ragone capable of turning this into a shootout vs. suspect Marshall defense. Keep a close watch on dicey winter weather in Mobile; might look for game to go “over” a a reasonable total

HAWAII BOWL
HAWAII (9-3) vs. TULANE (7-5)
Wednesday, December 25 Day at Honolulu, Hawaii (Artificial Turf)
HAWAII 37 -Tulane 21 —Tulane a lot better-equipped for this sort of taskthan some of the recent Wave editions that have had trouble stopping the wind, thanks mainly to more-aggressive defensive work (+14 TOs), courtesy of respected 1st-year d.c. Schumann (formerly SMU). But this is still a very unorthodox assignment for Wave (Christmas in Honolulu...we should say!), which normally doesn’t venture too far outside its region. And WAC sources have indicated that Hawaii’s recent uncharacteristic subpar spread form (no covers last 4 as chalk) due in part to fact Warriors had this bowl assignment sewn up long ago (Nov. 2, to be exact). Matchups don’t look too bad for hosts, as very active UH stop unit (35 sacks) will bring heat on Tulane QB Losman, who didn’t get much help from infantry this season (ranked 104th rushing). Plus, a few weeks of rest will do Warrior QB Chang’s sore throwing hand some good (he’s thrown 8 picks last 2), and June Jones’ Red Gun a bit more willing to mix things up with quick-hitting RBs West, Mitchell, & Bass (UH 5.1 ypc) providing ground threat. And while Tulane lost top WR Roydell Williams (ankle surgery) early in season, Warrior speedsters 5-7 Colbert, 5-8 Owens, 5-9 Ilaoa, 5-9 Komine, and 6-2 Cockheran improving every game.

LAS VEGAS BOWL
UCLA (7-5) vs. NEW MEXICO (7-6)
Wednesday, December 25 Day at Las Vegas, Nevada (Grass Field)
Ucla 22 - New Mexico 20 —Plethora of interesting angles to consider. New Mexico HC Long’s blitz-oriented 3-3-5 “D” certainly no mystery to UCLA HC Toledo, who employed Long as his d.c. in ‘96-97. But will Toledo stillhave his job? Or might he be a “lame-duck” on the sideline for this game? And might Long be a candidate for the job? Psychological factors aside, fundamentals don’t look too bad for Lobos. Despite Toledo’s familiarity with Long’s blitzes, neither of the Bruins’ frosh QBs (Olson or Moore; sr. Paus has only a slight chance to return) has had to confront the sort of unorthodox defensive tactics they’ll undoubtedly see. New Mexico hardly as dynamic
offensively as most-recent UCLA foes Southern Cal & Washington State (who combined to tally 50 ppg). But Bruins’ often-sloppy tackling will do them no favors vs. some of Lobos’ option looks and hard-charging RB Moore (1117 YR). Simply not convinced that depressed UCLA in necessary frame of mind to handle impost vs. hungry, well-supported MWC crew in rare opportunity against Pac-10 “elite.”

TANGERINE BOWL
TEXAS TECH (8-5) vs. CLEMSON (7-5)
Monday, December 23 Night at Orlando, Florida (Grass Field)
Texas Tech 42 - Clemson 33 —At 4-4 SU in late October following
embarrassing nationally-televised home loss to N.C. State, Clemson benched struggling jr. QB Simmons in favor of RS frosh Whitehurst. Tigers then won 3 of their last 4, including victory over rival So. Carolina, with Whitehurst (62%, 1291 YP, 9 TDP, only 2 ints.) leading the way. Whitehurst has a deep group of rangy WRs and a now-healthy sr. RB Rambert, so Expect fast-paced Clemson attack to do plenty of damage vs. poor-tackling Texas Tech, which allowed 31 or more points in 8 games TY. But it won’t beasy to keep pace with high-octane Red Raiders, who also scored 42 or more in 8 games. Star sr. QB Kingsbury has thrown for 12,054 yds. & 92 TDs in his college career (4642 & 42 TY)! He has a plethora of passing targets and an emerging ground threat in RS frosh RB Henderson at his disposal. Frequent Tiger blitzes likely to backfire against Kingsbury, whose quick release and intelligent audibles could produce plenty of big plays for Tech. Lubbock scouts report Kingsbury eager for shot at post-season redemption after somewhat sub-par performances (by his high standards) in two previous bowl appearances, both SU Raider losses. So inclined to side with Tech and its prolific, savvy vet QB over Clemson (2-7 vs. spread last 9 games) and its rapidly-maturing, but still-learning, rookie. However, might like “over” better than side, as both of these clever offenses well-equipped to attack weaknesses in opposition defense.

NFL SELECTIONS

CLEVELAND 24 - Indianapolis 16—Prefer Cleveland’s percentages
( Browns 4-0-2 as home dog under HC Davis), especially catching some pointspread value outdoors, in Dec., vs. a dome team. Both are well-coached, with the two pocket-locked QBs good friends (Tim Couch has used Peyton Manning as a model for mechanics, work ethic, team leadership, etc.). Couch now getting nice help from rookie RB Wm. Green (103 for 423 rushing last 4 games), and just a half-game out of first in AFC North. (99-Indianapolis -13' 29-28...SR: Cleveland 15-10)

Tampa Bay 24 - DETROIT 6—Can’t expect rookie Joey Harrington & banged-up Detroit receiving corps to do much damage to NFL’s top defense, which had little difficulty stuffing Bret Favre & Mike Vick in recent games. And the heady Brad Johnson was so accurate on most of his throws (4 TDs) vs. Atlanta last week, he couldn’t have done much better if he had been allowed to run down the field and hand his WRs the ball. Huge edge to Gruden in match of former G.B. asst. coaches.

***OVER 45 TOTAL POINTS ATLANTA 35 - Seattle 20—Seattle’s
banged-up defense (4 starters in front seven out; yielding 5.2 ypc) figures to be way verstressed vs. Mike Vick & Co., especially on the indoor carpet. And Falcs will be well-focused after last week’s loss damaged their playoff position in tight NFC South. Also, Atlanta’s stunting 3-4 (40 sacks, 18 ints.) should get some TOs from iimproving, but still mistake-prone Seahawk QB Hasselbeck.

POINTWISE
NFL FOOTBALL
3* ATLANTA over Seattle
3* MIAMI over Oakland
4* SAN FRANCISCO over Green Bay
4* BUFFALO over San Diego
5* CHICAGO over New York Jets

NCAA FOOTBALL
3* MARSHALL over Louisville
4* TEXAS TECH over Clemson
5* CINCINNATI BEARCATS over North Texas

BOWL SYSTEM TREND
BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest and most sucessful bowl systems around, is to against the team in which the current Heisman trophy winner plays.
RESULTS SINCE 1974
20-6-1 (77% AGAINST THE SPREAD)

NCAA BASKETBALL
1* BYU over Utah State (Sat)
1* TEXAS TECH over New Mexico (Wed)
2* TEXAS TECH ovr Wyoming (Sat)
3* DEPAUL over Florida International (Wed)
4* ST MARY'S over California-Riverside (Tues)
4* ILLINOIS over Temple (Sat)
5* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO over Northwestern (Thurs)

WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET (NFL & NCAA FOOTBALL)
NFL FOOTBALL
BEST BETS
4* Denver over Kansas City by 20
3* Seattle over *Atlanta by 7

PREFERRED PLAYS
Pittsburgh over Carolina by 21
Washington over *Philadelphia by 4

NFL TOTALS
2* OVER: Green Bay at San Francisco
1* UNDER: Dallas at New York Giants
1* UNDER: Baltimore at Houston

NCAA FOOTBALL
*NOTE THAT THESE PLAYS ARE NOT RATED SELECTIONS JUST REGULAR PLAYS FROM THE NEWSLETTER
CINCINNATI over NORTH TEXAS by 9
LOUISVILLE over MARSHALL by 5

DETAILED ANALYSIS

****BEST BET
*Denver over Kansas City by 20
These two teams have gone in opposite directions ever since the Broncos edged the Chiefs, 37-34, in overtime back on Oct. 20. The Chiefs have gone 4-2, while the Broncos have lost four of their past five. On paper, the Chiefs look like the right side. Not only are they the hotter team, but they also are a perfect 5-0 ATS as a road ‘dog this season. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points eight times already this year, and are averaging a phenomenal 43.3 points their past three games. They have scored 49 points each of the last two weeks. Kansas City also is 6-1-1 ATS its past eight against Denver. We believe the Broncos are better than their 7-6 mark, though. Denver’s record would look much more impressive if it weren’t for losing three games on the final play. The Broncos have the top run defense in the NFL, and Kansas City has the league’s worst pass defense. If the Broncos can contain Priest Holmes, they should win. Denver hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher at home in 32 consecutive games. That doesn’t bode well for Holmes. On the other side of the ball, Denver RB Clinton Portis is looking like a cinch to win offensive rookie of the year honors, and the Chiefs don’t have quality linebackers who can stay with TE Shannon Sharpe. The Broncos out-gained the Chiefs by more than 200 yards during their first meeting despite only winning by a field goal. Sharpe caught 12 passes in that game for a staggering 214 yards. Don’t forget, too, the Broncos have won 80 percent of their home games under Mike Shanahan. Brian Griese is back from injury. This gives the Broncos needed mobility at the quarterback spot. They didn’t have that when Steve Beuerlein was behind center. The Broncos get off the deck here. DENVER 34-14 .

***BEST BET
Seattle over *Atlanta by 7
Could Mike Holmgren have been right all along about Matt Hasselbeck? It was Holmgren who traded for his former backup Green Bay quarterback. Now, very quietly, Hasselbeck has at last put together three straight excellent games rewarding his coach for his patience. He has completed 79-of-136 passes for 1,012 yards and eight touchdowns during this span. Sparked by Hasselbeck’s resurgence, the Seahawks have averaged 469 yards the past three weeks. RB Shaun Alexander has also picked up his game, averaging 115 yards rushing the last three weeks. With these two key players performing well, the Seahawks are a dangerous team. The Falcons have a small defense, especially in the secondary, and it could start to be wearing down as the season winds down. You also have to wonder about the fragile psyche of the Falcons after losing so bad last week against Tampa Bay in a showdown for first place in the NFC South Division. Mike Vick had accounted for 10 touchdowns the past four weeks, until the Bucs held him to just one touchdown. The Falcons also may be without their best running back, Warrick Dunn (check status), who has an ankle injury. He missed last week’s game. If Dunn can’t go it will be easier for the Seahawks to shadow Vick. With remaining games against Detroit and Cleveland, the Falcons could come into this game not properly focused feeling they have an easy schedule. That would be a serious mistake because Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren always has been motivated against Dan Reeves. Because of Vick, the point spread is inflated. It remains to be seen, though, if the Falcons and their young superstar quarterback have the maturity to not only win, but also cover a big spread. SEATTLE 27-20 .

**PREFERRED PLAYS

*Pittsburgh over Carolina by 21

Look for the Steelers to come out burning mad after being upset at home by expansion Houston last week. Oh, the shame of it. Steelers coach Bill Cowher will be cracking a mean whip this week. QB Tommy Maddox had a game to get off the rust after missing the two previous weeks because of a spine injury. The Steelers’ 24-6 loss to the Texans wasn’t nearly as shocking as it looked, though. Pittsburgh held Houston to under 50 yards total offense. All three of Houston’s scores came on defensive touchdowns. Likewise, the Panthers’ 52-31 victory against Cincinnati last Sunday also was misleading because the Panthers scored three touchdowns via special teams and defense. Prior to last week, the Panthers were averaging less than 11 points their past nine games. They have dropped 25 of their last 30 games, and will be without suspended defensive lineman Julius Peppers. Not having Peppers is huge because the Panthers have a weak secondary. Peppers, who had 12 sacks, had been a pass-rushing terror all season. If the Panthers aren’t able to apply quarterback pressure, they can’t protect their vulnerable cornerbacks. Maddox is good enough to take advantage if given time to throw. The Panthers can’t be expected to generate much offense with ancient Rodney Peete at QB and backup Dee Brown as the main ball carrier. PITTSBURGH 28-7.

Washington over *Philadelphia by 4

It seems like the Redskins have had more starting quarterbacks, wide receivers and kickers than the rest of the NFL teams combined. Steve Spurrier probably will go with rookie Patrick Ramsey at quarterback this week. Ramsey has the strongest arm of any of the Redskins quarterbacks. The Eagles are playing great defense, surrendering just six TDs the past four games. On the season, the Eagles are giving up an average of under 16 points per game. Philadelphia has all but clinched their NFC East Division. But handicapping the NFL is all about going beyond the surface and obvious. The Eagles haven’t lost since losing QB Donovan McNabb for the season. They have beaten San Francisco on Monday night, St. Louis and Seattle in their past three games. So we see this as a letdown spot for Philadelphia. It’s a division game for the Redskins, it’s a huge revenge spot for Washington because the Eagles embarrassed them on national television, 37-7, back in Week 2 and they’re going against third-string QB A.J. Feeley. We’re not talking about Mike Vick here. It’s been a disappointing season for the Redskins, who had huge expectations after naming Spurrier coach. Spurrier knows he can win back fan support by springing an upset. With Stephen Davis, Spurrier has the quality big running back, who can help him play ball control and take the pressure off Ramsey. WASHINGTON 21-17.

NFL TOTALS

**OVER: Green Bay at San Francisco - The 49ers have given up nearly an average of 280 yards passing the past three games against weak quarterbacks A.J. Feeley, Matt Hasselbeck and Chad Hutchinson.

UNDER: Dallas at New York Giants – Only twice have the Cowboys scored more than 21 points, and the winter elements and grass field could slow up both teams.

UNDER: Baltimore at Houston – Ravens coach Brian Billick will look to feature tailback Jamal Lewis, and let his defense beat the NFL’s worst offense.

NCAA FOOTBALL

Tuesday, December 17
NEW ORLEANS BOWL (New Orleans, LA)
CINCINNATI over NORTH TEXAS by 9
Now that the N.C.A.A. season is stretching to the point at which teams can be playing 14 games, we have to begin handicapping settings likes this one, in which a team literally has no break at all before bowl preparation. That is the case with Rick Minter and his Bearcats, who basically stick to a regular practice schedule after clinching this bid just a week ago with that win at East Carolina. Does it mean tired legs, which should point us to the fresher underdog? Or does it mean a better playing rhythm, which means lay the points against the squad that might be out of sync a bit? Time will tell on those concepts, but for here there is one substantial edge – in a matchup of two staunch defenses, only one side has anything resembling playmakers on offense. In QB Gino Guidugli (3,319 passing yards and 21 TD’s), RB DeMarco McCleskey (1,275 rushing yards and 17 TD’s) and WR’s Terrance Vann, Jon Olinger and Tie Keith (combined for 148 receptions, with 14 going for TD’s), Cincinnati has the legitimate playmakers that the Mean Green simply lack. Must respect the defense of the underdog, and also their familiarity with these surroundings on their second straight trip to this bowl, but eventually it comes down to weapons, and the favorite simply has more. CINCINNATI 23-14.

Wednesday, December 18
G.M.A.C. BOWL (Mobile, AL)
LOUISVILLE over MARSHALL by 5
We start this handicap much like our other bowl preview this week, having to deal with a Marshall team that has had no down time at all in preparing for this game. And not only is there no down time, but the game may actually be a bit of an anti-climax, with that intense M.A.C. Championship affair vs. Toledo last week possibly meaning more to them. That opens the door for a fresher and better focused Louisville team to get the job done here, as long as the Cardinals are capable. And while they would not be vs. most other bowl opponents (Conference U.S.A. was awful this year, which will be exposed later), John L. Smith might have lucked into the one matchup that can turn a disappointing season around. Although it will be billed as a shootout between Dave Ragone and Byron Leftwich, the truth is that it will come down to defense. Louisville plays some, Marshall none. Ragone had a subpar senior season because of an ineffective O.L., but here he will not be facing that type of pass rushes that he has had to evade all season. The Thundering Herd lacks playmakers in the defensive front, stopping neither the run nor the pass, and in truth they are even worse than their statistics indicate, largely because of having played a very weak schedule. LOUISVILLE 35-30.