Sevransky's expert advice on Arena Football
By TED SEVRANSKY
The biggest betting story in the AFL over the past few weeks has been the remarkable run of Unders, particularly in games with the highest totals on the board.
Seven of the eight games in Week 13 went Under the total, the lone exception (Orlando-Dallas) squeaking over by a single score.
Dallas was the only team in the league to eclipse the 60 point barrier, while ten different teams were held below 50. Only one AFL quarterback threw for more than 300 yards last week, a season low.
The trend towards Unders has been particularly noticeable in the games expected to be higher scoring contests, with totals of 110 or higher. In the last three weeks, games with these high totals have gone Under at a 12-2 clip.
The betting marketplace is adjusting on the fly, with only two games (San Jose @ Los Angeles and Utah @ Grand Rapids) totaled at higher than 110 this week, although Arizona-Chicago (109.5) and Tampa Bay-Georgia (108.5) aren’t far away.
Monday Night’s ESPN affair featured a pair of teams headed in opposite directions right now. Three weeks ago, the New Orleans VooDoo were looking at a Southern Division championship and a first round playoff bye. Now the VooDoo are locked in a serious battle just to earn a playoff spot, tied for sixth place in the ultra-competitive National Conference.
Head coach Mike Neu has seen his offense struggle mightily during their three game skid, held under 40 points in each of the losses. Quarterback Danny Wimprine was able to guide his team to only a single touchdown after halftime on Monday Night, against a defense that had allowed 67 points the previous week against New York.
The Georgia Force, on the other hand, is streaking in a positive direction right now, winners of four straight. The key to Georgia’s recent success has been the development of their offensive line. Georgia has allowed only three sacks all season, holding their opponents sack-less nine times in their last ten games.
James Clark, Shane Grice, Ben Nowland and fullback Bruce McClure certainly aren’t household names, even among diehard AFL fans, but that quartet has allowed QB Chris Griesen to attempt his last 243 passes without a sack. Griesen struggled early in the season, but his numbers of late remind many of his performance last year, when he led the league in quarterback efficiency.
During the Force’s four game winning streak, Griesen has thrown 24 touchdown passes with only two interceptions, completing at least 70% of his pass attempts in every ballgame.
This past weekend was full of upsets, with 2-9 Columbus knocking off 6-5 New York and 2-10 Utah pulling off the shocker against 9-2 Chicago. But none of the upsets was bigger than 2-9 Kansas City’s surprise win in Philadelphia as 17.5 point underdogs against the 10-2 Soul. Philly became only the fourth team in AFL history to start 9-0 after their impressive Monday Night domination of Dallas, but they are just 1-3 SU since, 0-4 ATS, losing those four games by a combined 57 points against the spread. The last two defeats were decided on the final play of the game, losses by a combined eight points. It’s worth noting that of the three previous teams to start 9-0 or better, all three reached the Arena Bowl.
Another front line contender for the Arena Bowl championship, the Dallas Desperados, bounced back nicely from their own huge upset loss at home to Arizona the previous week, taking out their frustrations on the Orlando Predators in the Jungle. Tied 28-28 at halftime, Dallas stepped up their defensive intensity after the break, forcing five Predators stops in the second half alone, including a pair of safeties and a net recovery on a kickoff.
Head coach Will McClay: “IF we get a lead, now we’re able to hunt. The pass rushers are able to go; we can mix up some coverages. That’s kind of the recipe that you’ve got to have.”
Desperados QB Clint Dolezel suffered a flare up of his old hip injury that could give him trouble in the weeks to go. Dolezel : “I’ve got a little bone-on-bone in there, and it just got irritated really bad.”