Situational capping: The NBA's best spots this week
BRYAN LEONARD
Scheduling situations are just as important as matchups and trends when analyzing pro and college basketball games, yet they are often overlooked.
I'm talking about things like back-to-back spots or when a team plays its third road game in four nights. These are factors a good handicapper must balance when capping a game. Here are some other facets of situational hoops handicapping:
Travel: How far does a team have to travel for this game? And how far has it traveled over the last few games? I adjust my power ratings if a team is flying across the country playing in the second of a back-to-back situation. A road trip from Miami to Atlanta is no big deal, but Miami to Seattle is a long flight crossing several time zones. On Feb. 10 and 11, the Washington Wizards travel to face Phoenix, then Golden State on back-to-back nights. That comes after a tough game in Denver against the Nuggets on Feb. 8.
Final game of a long trip: Sometimes teams play their worst games at the end of a long road trip when exhaustion and injuries are taking their toll. The Lakers are in the midst of a vicious nine-game, 15-day road trip in which they play on back-to-back nights three times. You can bet they'll be tired by the time their last game of the trip rolls around Feb. 13 in Minnesota.
Second game of a back-to-back road spot: A team is more likely to play a better game with one or more days of rest than in the second game of a back-to-back spot, especially on the road. We already mentioned the Lakers' situation. The Spurs are also in the middle of their annual rodeo road trip that sees them booted out of their home arena for two weeks. They have five games remaining on their nine-game swing that sees them play the Celtics and Raptors on back-to-back nights on Feb. 10 and 11. Ouch.
First game home: Contrary to what you might think, a team doesn’t always play its best game when they come home after a road trip of three or more games. Family and business matters await players that might leave them busier than when they're on the road. It could be anything from wives needing decisions from their athlete-husbands, agents hounding, or the kids having problems in school.
The Dallas Mavericks host Milwaukee Wednesday night after a four-game road trip that saw the Mavs face all three of the East's divisional leaders in the final three games. Dallas went 2-2 straight up and ATS on the trip and they have to overcome a hefty 14-point handicap against the Bucks.
High scoring games: Playing defense is hard work. That's why we might see a team struggle defensively on the second night of a back-to-back spot. If you’re a totals player, look for opportunities where a team that likes to run is facing an opponent in the second of a back-to-back spot. If their strategy in the past has been to run at an opponent’s tired legs, it could be a spot to look at playing over the total. The high-scoring Golden State Warriors face the Bulls at home Thursday night, one night after Chicago has a tough game in Portland.
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