Six Keys to Betting the Final Four
by T.O. Whenham - 03/28/2007
After a whole long college basketball season in which we have had so many games to choose from, this is the strangest week of the season. We have just two games coming up, and we have an entire week to get ready for them. We're not used to having that much time to handicap, and it probably messes with our minds a little bit. It has only been a couple of days since the last games, and I'm already feeling a little cross-eyed. I think, though, that I've at least figured out a few things about these games. As I see it, there are five questions that have to be answered to get a good sense of the games. How you see the answers will largely determine how you see the games turning out.
1) Will the real Greg Oden show up? Oden, at his best, is clearly and obviously the best player left in the tournament. The question is whether he will be at his best. Against Memphis he was very good in the time he played, but his 24 minutes were well below what the team expects or needs from him. Against Tennessee he was far from the best player on his team, never mind on the court. His foul trouble in both of those games, and against Xavier, has to make you question his discipline as the pressure increases. Though Oden has been good for the most part, he hasn't been as good as he has the ability to be. He'll have to find another gear if he wants to lead his team past a Georgetown team that refuses to die.
2) How good is Ohio State? With the possible exception of Memphis, the Buckeyes haven't yet beaten a really good team. They rolled through the Big Ten in the regular season and the tournament, but the NCAAs confirmed what many people already thought - the Big Ten wasn't very good this year. By far the two best teams on the schedule were Florida and North Carolina. Not only did they lose both games, but they weren't even close. Maybe I'm just gun shy because of the last time a highly-rated team from Ohio State got exposed on the national championship stage, but I'm still not convinced that this team, even with a healthy Oden, is of the same caliber as the other three left on the court.
3) Will Georgetown's defense return? The Hoyas have made it to the Final Four largely due to their excellent defense. That defense failed them badly in the first half of the game against North Carolina. It returned in spades in the second half, but they clearly can't rely on that kind of comeback again. The defense struggled so badly in part because of North Carolina's game plan, which used their speed and skill so well, but it was due more to the lack of discipline and focus that Georgetown showed. They can't afford to have that happen again.
4) Can UCLA slow Florida down? It's probably as simple as this - if Florida can set the tempo then they will beat UCLA. UCLA has played absolutely smothering offense throughout the tournament, and they shut down a fairly potent Kansas squad. They have at least the capacity to do the same against Florida. The problem is that there doesn't seem to be a way to shut down Florida effectively, because every time you chop off a head, another just sprouts right up. Oregon had some success shutting down the Gators inside, so Lee Humphrey punished them from outside. They have a way to counter whatever is thrown at them, but they probably haven't seen a defense as good as UCLA, or one in the same form. Which side perseveres?
5) How will Darren Collison do? If one player holds the key to his team's success in the late game on Saturday, it is Darren Collison. The sophomore point guard had giant shoes to fill following Jordan Farmar, but he's done a great job of it. His performance in the tournament has been more than solid. If there's a concern, though, it's that his assists have been well below his season average. Florida has such depth and offensive power that UCLA will have to be at their offensive best, and that means that Collison will have to be creative and effective in his ball distribution.
6) What factor will the refs be? Refereeing in this tournament has been as inconsistent as refereeing always is. Ohio State and Georgetown have both struggled with fouls, and it has almost been fatal for both of them. In other cases, the refs have swallowed their whistles and let rough action go unchecked in the key. With four teams so closely matched, the tone the referees adopt has the ability to determine the outcome of the games. The problem, of course, is that there is really no way to know the mood of the officials before the games are played.
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