Six Super Bowl Wagering Questions

Six Super Bowl Wagering Questions
By: Staff Writer - StatFox

With the game just two days away what are the key questions that need to be answered in order for people to profit on the Super Bowl. The StatFox staff sat down and formulated twenty questions and narrowed it down to the Super Six and assigned a staff writer to answer them. You may agree or disagree, but no mistaking you will find this intriguing reading.

1) Should Indianapolis really be favored by a touchdown?

This is not a simple answer, thus we’ll explore from a couple of points. Sportsbook.com and many other books with similar clientele have kept the line at seven points, while considering wavering. Sportsbook.com has seen 53% of those wagering, taking the points with the Bears. Wagerline has seen 58 percent of their customers placing selections also in favor Chicago. Others like Betcris.com have come off the number and are at 6.5-points with the Colts still favored. Before the playoffs started most books figured the AFC representative to be 4 to 6 point pick whoever the teams were from each conference, based on the strength of each. Try this theory on for size. If Baltimore was a four point home favorite against Indianapolis and San Diego was better team then the Ravens, at worst the Chargers would also have been a four point home favorite had they met. Following that to a conclusion that either the Chargers or Ravens had made it to Super Bowl XLl, they would have been 8-point favorites. Does anyone really believe taking either of those teams with that many points would have been a good bet? Probably not. Thus the Colts at a touchdown appear to be a bit over-stated.

2) Is Chicago worth a wager on the money line?

Thus far bettors have let their actions speak for them with a whopping 84% playing the Bears on the money line at Sportsbook. In talking to a few sportsbooks and operators in Las Vegas, the Chicago bandwagon is bordering on overflowing. While Bear fans were skeptical the last month of the regular season about their team’s play, the win over New Orleans sealed the deal to bring everyone out to support their team. In studying both teams the difference do not appear to be significant other then at the quarterback position. In this case the Chicago has to depend more on its team rather then Indy who can ride Peyton Manning’s hot hand if that occurs. Underdogs have won three of last nine Super Bowls, thus not giving appearance of great wager.

3) Is the total higher then it should be?

Points of view will differ, but realistically it seems to be about right. Manning this season has had three occasions this season were he threw for 270 yards or better coming off a game throwing for 205 yards or less the previous contest. If you include the opening game of the year, in the next game the Colts are 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. The Over has been the correct call with only the recent Baltimore playoff game coming up short. Chicago tied with Tennessee as the top Over team at 11-4-1 and has added two more to that total. Though both teams are in the Super Bowl, each has flaws defensively the other team more then as has the ability to exploit. Since the 1985 Super Bowl their have been 15 games were the total was at least 46 points. The Over has been correct in nine of them.

4) Are Super Bowl props good bets?

Yes this area can be quite profitable, only if you have done your home work and know what these numbers actually mean. A friend of StatFox could care less about the side and total of the game and instead studies furiously all the props at various books he belongs to. His first method is to find significant differences from the various books and his Las Vegas connections and pound the weaker lines first. From there he studies all the averages of the players involved and charts anticipated figures, where he can really cash on weak numbers. In his 13 years of doing this he has yet to lose and has frequently made far more money playing props then wagering on the side or total. His case is extreme, because he is committed. It is not our goal to tell you how or what to bet, but much like eating and drinking on Super Bowl Sunday, it is best to play props in moderation and stick with things you know. It can be fun and profitable if use common sense with knowledge.

5) Can either team win without their A-Game?

Based on the spread, the natural inclination is Chicago would be less likely to win since they are the underdog if they don’t play their best. The Bears big play capabilities were restricted by opponents as the season wore on and Rex Grossman was still trying to force passes to create them. For Chicago they must stay away from turnovers. The Bears have had 10 games were they committed 1 or fewer miscues. In those games they were 10-0 and 9-1 ATS. Lovie Smith’s team also had six games were they committed at least three turnovers. In those contests they were 3-3 with matching spread record. If they cough it up that many times to the Colts, game, set and match. The last time Indianapolis had an errorless contest was 13 games ago at Denver. The Colts have not turned it over a lot, with only two games of more then two. However it is not a stretch to believe they will do so again at least once. This puts a premium on the Bears offense to convert into touchdown. The Colts have a greater margin of error because of offense, just not a tremendous margin.

6) What team is most likely to cave into pressure of game?

No question Tony Dungy’s Colts have more pressure as does any favored team. For year’s Indianapolis has carried the burden of Manning winning multiple Super Bowls with the offensive talent on hand. Now after falling short many times they finally made it. With all the questions about Grossman, it is good to keep in mind Manning has been razor sharp for two quarters and the last drive before halftime against New England in last three playoff games. Though nobody is more poised in the pocket and has to carry the weight of the offense on his shoulders, he is still human. What happens to the defense if the Bears offensive line starts ripping huge holes and they are in second and short for the first half? Do the Colts suffer déjà vu being trampled again?

The Chicago coaching staff faces exceptional pressure on both sides of the ball. The game plan will be much the same as it has been in the playoffs. Do things to build Grossman’s confidence and turn him loose when you feel he’s ready. If the Bears defensive front can not generate a pass rush to sack or bother Manning then what? Brian Urlacher had zero sacks this season and does not appear to truly grasp the concept of blitzing without an open lane. Despite his obvious athletic skills, OC Tom Moore would love to see Urlacher chasing TE Dallas Clark all over the field. The defensive coaches for Chicago have a tall task unless they get to the quarterback. If the Bears are down double digits early, what do they do to counteract Indy?

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