Jeff Haney on a more profitable strategy for betting this weekend using parlays of money line wagers instead of odds set by sports books around town
Smart betting for Final Four
Many Las Vegas sports books are offering odds on each of the Final Four teams to go on and win college basketball's national championship game Monday night.
Some of them might even be worth an investment at the betting window.
Others certainly are not.
The most obvious bet to avoid is taking defending champion Florida to win the title at odds of 6-5, or plus-120 (risk $1 to net $1.20), a price seen at several books around town including the Plaza and Coast/Boyd properties.
A more profitable strategy if you like the Gators to repeat would be to play them on the money line in Saturday's semifinal against UCLA, then roll over the winnings and the original wager into another money line wager Monday against either Georgetown or Ohio State.
You would be risking the same amount of money yet setting yourself up for a bigger payday.
Calculating the likely payouts of such parlays using the money line - a wager on the outright winner of the game regardless of the point spread - can be useful in determining which type of wager to make.
Figure that Florida, for example, would probably be favored by 2 points against Georgetown in the title game (approximate money line: minus-140, or risk $1.40 to win $1) and about 3 points against Ohio State (approximate money line: minus-160).
Because a money line of minus-160 on Florida against UCLA is readily accessible in Las Vegas, Gators backers could expect a return of plus-164 to plus-178 on Florida winning the title using the money line parlay technique.
You won't find better than plus-178 on Florida to win the championship, although the Las Vegas Hilton comes close at 8-5, or plus-160.
How far off is that 6-5 price? You would need a money line in the championship game of minus-280, meaning Florida would have to be about a 7-point favorite in the title game for those odds to be fair. Not even close.
Gamblers who like UCLA to pull off a mild surprise and win the title are also better off using a money line parlay rather than the fixed odds offered by casinos.
Figure UCLA would be about a pick 'em against Ohio State (equivalent money line of about minus-110) and perhaps a 1-point underdog against Georgetown (equivalent money line of about even money).
Because you can easily find a money line as high as plus-155 on UCLA against Florida, a money line parlay on the Bruins to win the title would pay somewhere between 3.8 to 1 and 4.1 to 1.
The best fixed price on UCLA in Las Vegas appears to be only 7-2 at several places, including the Hilton and the Plaza. Odds of 3-1 on UCLA are also common. Avoid the 2.2-1 at Caesars-Harrah's properties, which would be fair if you think UCLA would be a minus-390 favorite on the money line in the championship game.
The fixed odds available on Georgetown and Ohio State in Las Vegas are a little more attractive, especially if you're counting on Florida to get past UCLA on the other side of the bracket.
With Georgetown a small favorite in Saturday's semifinal, a money line parlay on the Hoyas would pay about 3-1 if they beat Florida in the title game, closer to 2.3-1 if they beat UCLA. Georgetown can be found at odds as high as 3.2-1 at the Palms, which appears reasonable.
Likewise a money line parlay on Ohio State would pay about 3.6-1 if Florida advances and 2.8-1 if UCLA advances. The Buckeyes can be found as high as 7-2 at the Hilton, a fair price, especially considering many books don't bother to offer a money line in games like Saturday's in which the line is only 1 point.
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