2002 Buzz Word Sports records
SEASON NFL: 157-122, +69.35 UNITS!!
SEASON NBA: 212-168, +74.55 UNITS!!
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: 137-115, +5.05 UNITS!!
SEASON MLB: 672-582, +151.85 UNITS!!
Buzz Word Sports
Redefining quality sports analysis...
1 PM TOP PLAYS:
Minnesota @ Detroit 1:00 PM EST
Detroit +3.5 over Minnesota (5 Units)
Look, we'll be the first ones to congratulate the Vikings on their solid play as of late... we called for Minnesota to cover the spread in their last two games, and they came through with flying colors... but does the public have that short of a memory to remember that Minnesota's 32-31 last-second win over the Saints was the Viking's first road win in EIGHTEEN GAMES?!? A last second one-point win over a faltering Saints team is not suddenly going to instill confidence in the Vikings on the road, let alone as a road favorite... Remember, the Vikings have allowed 31.7 ppg in their last 18 road games - THEY SHOULD NOT BE FAVORED ON THE ROAD, even against a 3-12 team such as the Lions...
Remember, the Lions are actually 3-4 at home this season, a mark that compares quite favorably with Minnesota's 1-14 road mark over the past two seasons... and when it comes to home dogs, they don't get much more solid than the Lions' 19-7-1 ATS mark... with the Vikings a miserable 3-18 ATS in their last road game of the season, 2-6-1 ATS as a road favorite in December, and just 5-13 ATS versus an opponent seeking revenge (2-7 ATS in the division), there are more than enough solid numbers working against a Vikings team that may be a little too confident in this game after knocking off the Saints and Dolphins in back-to-back weeks...
Detroit is now 8-1 ATS as a home dog within the conference after going a perfect 4-0 ATS this season, including games against the likes of Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and New Orleans... additionally, Detroit has not just gone 13-3 ATS in their final divisional home game, but they are also 5-1 ATS as a home dog against the NFC North/Central... meanwhile, the Vikings have had difficulty following up a strong performance, as they are just 1-7 ATS off a home win (with the one cover coming in a seven-point loss as an eight-point dog)... additionally, Minnesota has allowed the dregs of the league (teams with a winning percentage of .333 or lower) to cover seven of their last nine games against them... needless to say, expecting the Vikings to not only win but also cover a 3.5 point spread is asking miracles, even against the Lions...
After a win where they held their opponent to less than 20 points, the Vikings have followed up that performance with losses of 38-24, 41-14, 28-15, 41-0, and 40-29... while expecting the Lions to score that many points is a bit much, Detroit has scored at least 24 points in each of their last three home games against the Vikings, and also in their last three games against Minnesota overall... the home team is 6-1 SU in the series between these two teams, while the Lions have covered three of their last four against the Vikings... and if Minnesota is somehow going to make it two straight road wins, the likelihood of them doing so by more than a field goal is incredibly slim... take the Lions to cover this contest and end another disappointing season with a home win...
FINAL PREDICTION: DETROIT 23, MINNESOTA 20
Atlanta @ Cleveland 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland +3 over Atlanta (4.5 Units)
Cleveland/Atlanta Over 41 (2.5 Units)
Welcome to the wild and wonderful world of the Cleveland Browns, a team that could just as easily be 14-1 as their current 8-7 mark, considering that six of Cleveland's seven losses this season have come by just one score... from losing the season opener due to a penalty for removing a helmet on the field of play, to a hail mary miracle win in the final seconds, the Browns have had a penchant for the dramatic this season, and cannot be counted out of any game... the Atlanta Falcons have been a bit more extreme, stomping on the hapless teams (Detroit, Carolina twice, Cincinnati) in the league by a whopping 137 to 18 combined score, then getting demolished by the Buccaneers in two games by a 54-16 margin... However, in the other nine games Atlanta has played this season, they have followed the lead of the Browns - winning some, losing some (even tying one), but having each game decided a touchdown or less...
With two teams matching up here with the propensity of taking each game down to the last second, the winning play here is to go with the team getting the points, especially when that team is a home dog, and one coming off a SU road win as a dog... for not only is the home dog 76-38-5 ATS in this situation, but they are an amazing 42-17-3 ATS (40-22 SU) after the Giants pulled off the feat on Saturday... the Browns find themselves in this exact same situation today after winning in Baltimore as a 2.5 point dog last week...
Cleveland is a superb 7-2 ATS as an underdog, and 6-2-2 ATS as a home dog... additionally, the Browns are 8-1 ATS when the line is six points or less either way... additionally, Cleveland's defense has thrived against the NFC this season, allowing 17 points or less and a combined 45 points to Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina... meanwhile, the Falcons have been awful on defense when hitting the road against the AFC, as Atlanta has allowed a pathetic 34.8 ppg in their last six games... additionally, in Atlanta's last three games against capable offenses (Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota), the Falcons have allowed over 29 points per game, a number that doesn't bode well for their chances against a Cleveland offense that has grown more balanced this year with the addition of William Green and the continued development of Tim Couch and Quincy Morgan...
While we certainly don't expect the Browns to come out of this game with a lopsided victory, the stats certainly push us heavily in the direction of Cleveland here, who are still very alive for a playoff spot... with a field goal being spotted to us as well, we will play the percentages weighted havily in our favor and take the Browns for a 4-unit play, with an additional play on the Over, as this game looks to be a bit of a shootout as well...
FINAL PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 27, ATLANTA 23
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati +7.5 over Buffalo (4 Units)
What is it about the Bengals? Every season, somebody out there predicts that this is the year that they will turn the corner to respectability - and every year the pattern is the same... they get crushed early in the season, become the laughingstock of the league, and somehow they catch fire late in the season to finish the season strong and get people excited about the team for the next season...
Well, here we are again, as Cincinnati is once again capping off their season in style, having played spoiler to the New Orleans Saints last week, and looking to keep the Bills from achieving a .500 season this week... and as scary as it may seem, the Bengals have a great shot of having more wins in the last two weeks of the season than the rest of the season combined, for the Bills are just not playing terrific ball right now, and should not be favored by this many points here...
Lost in Cincy's terrible start to the season is the fact that their offense has actually become pretty potent over the second half of the year, scoring 20 points or more in eight of their last nine games, and an average of 24.3 points in those contests... it's been Cincy's defense that has kept them from compiling a few more wins, as last week's game was just the second occasion where the Bengals held their opponent to less than 20 points...
Unfortunately for the Bills, being held to less than 20 points is starting to become a habit, as their once spectacular offense has been rendered mediocre over the latter portion of this season... After lighting up the scoreboards in weeks 1-8, Drew Bledsoe and company have scored more than 20 points just once in their last seven games, and have scored just 37 points in their last three games after being shutout by the Packers last week... even acknowledging the fact that Cincinnati's defense isn't quite All-Pro caliber, the idea of laying a touchdown with a stagnant Buffalo offense (and a weak defense of their own) just doesn't appeal to us, not against a Cincy team that has made a habit of closing their seasons in strong fashion...
When you're a team as bad as Cincinnati has been over the past decade, it speaks volumes when you are 14-7 ATS in the last two games of the season... in December games, the Bengals are a fantastic 14-6 ATS, including a stunning 5-1 ATS in their last six road finales... throw in the fact that Cincy is 8-3 ATS when getting a TD or more, and we'll gladly take the touchdown here, even if this is the Bungles that we are backing... lost in Buffalo's turnaround from 3-13 squad to a possible .500 team is the fact that the Bills are just 5-12 straight up in their last 17 home games, and have won just ONCE by more than a touchdown in those contests... as a home favorite, the Bills have compiled a 4-10 ATS mark in their last fourteen games, and in December, Buffalo is just 7-20-1 ATS as a favorite... and as a favorite within the AFC, Buffalo is just 4-13-2 ATS, including a 1-7-1 ATS mark in their last nine games... There are just too many factors pushing us in Cincinnati's direction, as we believe they have not only a great chance at covering this game, but winning straight up as well...
FINAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 24, BUFFALO 21
Tennessee @ Houston 1:00 PM EST
Houston +9.5 over Tennessee (4 Units)
With Oakland's win yesterday, this game takes on a lot less meaning for the Tennessee Titans, who know that they cannot secure homefield advantage, and with the knowledge that they only need to win in order to secure a first-round bye, don't expect a high level of intensity against a lowly expansion team... however, motivation is high for the Texans, who are not just any expansion team... lest we forget, the Texans play where the Titans called home for so many years, in the city of Houston... this is Houston's most important game of the year, and the Texans will be going all out in order to give their fans a win over their old hometown favorite...
It certainly doesn't hurt that Tennessee has been awful in the role of favorite over the past few seasons... in fact, not only are the Titans 6-16-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite, but they are just 4-16-1 ATS when favored by more than a single point... and when asked to cover more than a field goal, Tennessee has gone just 1-11 ATS, with their sole ATS win coming by a mere point, as Corey Dillon tripped over his own lineman at the goal-line with a chance to put Cincinnati up for good in the final minute of that contest...
The Texans have shown quite a bit of resiliency this year under coach Dom Capers, as their last three home games have been decided by a COMBINED nine points, and the Texans are a perfect 3-0-1 ATS as a home dog between 3.5 and 10 points... Houston has avoided a lengthy slump this season by performing well after 2+ SU losses (4-1 ATS), and are not just 4-1 ATS off a road loss, but an exceptional 4-0-1 ATS off a double-digit SU loss... In scoring 16+ points in each of their last three home games, Houston has started to achieve some consistency on offense to go with a defense that has allowed just 18.4 points per game in their last seven contests... additionally, the Texans have played well within their division, covering three out of four contests this year, including a 7-point loss in Tennessee earlier this season...
In a game that might as well be their Super Bowl this year, we see the Texans taking full advantage of a Tennessee team that will be more than happy to squeak by with a one point victory... with nearly double-digits on our side, we're more than happy to back the home team with the knowledge that they are playing this game for the entire city... Tennessee barely squeaks by with a win, but Houston gets the green in this one...
FINAL PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 19, HOUSTON 17
Miami @ New England 1:00 PM EST
New England +2.5 over Miami (3.5 Units)
It's all on the line in this game... the AFC East title, a playoff spot, and a last chance to live up to expectations are all on the line in this battle between divisional rivals with hopes of making the Super Bowl depending upon winning this game... while Miami could still make the playoffs even with a loss, the Dolphins know it is an unlikely scenario, and the defending champion Patriots also know that a loss here will ensure they don't get a chance to defend their title... needless to say, this is a high pressure game, and when it comes to high stakes, it seems that the Patriots know how to come up big more often than the Dolphins...
New England has finished off the latter portion of the regular season in style the last several years, going 4-1 ATS in their final regular season game and 5-1 ATS in their final home game of the season... and as the weather gets colder, the Pats more often than not tend to heat up, especially when playing a divisional opponent, as New England is not only 14-3 ATS against the AFC East in December, but they are an exceptional 8-1-1 ATS in their final divisional game... Miami, on the other hand, tends to wilt in the cold, going 4-16 ATS on the road in December, and 5-19 ATS against the AFC East during the holiday season... Not only are the Dolphins just 2-5 ATS on the road against their division in general, but Jay Fiedler and company are 1-5 ATS in their final regular season game, and 0-6 ATS in their road finale...
The Dolphins have really just been terrible on the road in general, but especially when favored... the Dolphins are allowing 25.4 ppg on the road this season, and have performed their worst as a road fav, allowing 28.3 ppg in their last seven games as such (including 20+ points per game, and a whopping 106 points in their three contests this season as a road favorite)... in those seven games, the Dolphins managed to cover the spread just twice, and in their last six road games overall this season, Miami has gone just 1-5 straight up, with the sole win a game that they stole in Denver with a last second field goal...
While the Patriots have been struggling themselves as of late, they have still scored at least 20 points in each of their last four home games against the Dolphins, and with the line swing placing New England in the role of home dog, we like New England's chances even more... for not only are the Pats 7-2 ATS as a dog of three points or less overall, but they are a terrific 11-2-1 ATS as a home pick or dog, including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in their last five games, where only a loss to the mighty Rams last year kept them from being unbeaten straight up in those contests...
Miami has scored just 58 total points in their last four road games, and while the Pats have been pretty terrible on offense themselves as of late, they should find some breathing room against a Miami D that just hasn't shown the capability of turning on their A game on the road... with the home team now a perfect 6-0 ATS in this series (and 5-1 SU), and with the defending champions once again in their favorite role (that of getting no respect) we like the Pats to circle the wagons and stun the Dolphins, likely knocking them out of the playoff chase once again...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND 23, MIAMI 17
Dallas @ Washington 1:00 PM EST
Washington -7 over Dallas (3 Units)
Normally, we would be all over the Cowboys in this one, as Washington is not a strong favorite, and the Cowboys have now beaten the Skins in ten straight games... however, this is a Dallas team that is just in utter chaos right now, and has no ability whatsoever to score on the road... Washington has to break through against the Cowboys at some point, and there doesn't appear to be a better situation than this game to extract revenge against Emmitt Smith (in likely his final farewell) and company...
Dallas is scoring just 8.2 points per game on the road in their last ten games, have allowed 19+ points to each of their last six opponents, and have given up a crushing 95 points in their last three contests... when you can't put up more than a touchdown against the likes of Detroit and Arizona, you know things are bad, and considering that Dallas has scored a touchdown or less in their last four road games, the Cowboys will either need to turn things around quickly on offense, or be able to shut down the Skins themselves... we believe neither is likely.
Washington has now scored at least 20 points in each of their last five games, and as poorly as the Skins have played this season, they have taken care of business at home against losing teams, winning and covering against the likes of Arizona (before their injuries), St. Louis, and Houston... take away the Monday Night travesty against the Eagles, and Washington has scored 25.2 ppg at home this season, and no less than 20 points in each of those contests...
While Dallas is looking to pack it in on several fronts, and have no direction towards the future, Washington is somewhat hopeful about the future, and has several young skill players all looking to capture Steve Spurrier's attention with an eye on next season... and while Washington knows that the playoffs are a distant dream, it has become Steve Spurrier's mission to finally provide owner Daniel Snyder with a victory over the hated Boys... we expect no stone to be left unturned in the quest for this resounding victory, and with Dallas already demoralized and ready to pack it in, we're expecting a blowout in this one, as the Redskins end two legacies (Dallas's win streak and Emmitt's career) in one cleansing swoop...
FINAL PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 31, DALLAS 10
OTHER 1 PM PLAYS (no analysis):
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST
Pittsburgh -7.5 over Baltimore (2 Units)
Rough day. Do find your NBA writeups interesting and informative.