The league is 1-11 ATS since 2002 as a 3+ point favorite after a win in which they did not hold the lead at the end of the first three quarters.
This system was a big winner on the Panthers last week
Also in week 4 the browns were off a 14-13 win over the 49ers in which they were scoreless after 3 quarters. They lost outright to the Bengals giving 4 in week 5.
Then in week 5 the Raiders came from behind and beat the Chargers. Giving four the next week in Chicago they lost outright.
Just to add the teams favored are 2-12 straight up.
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The Chiefs are on the road for the 4th game out of the last 5.
There's a theory that only comes up maybe once a year, and that is when a team upsets as a dog on the road, and then is on the road as a fave. Last year it happened once and it involved the Patriots. They went up to Buffalo as a 3 point dog and won 38-7, and then went to Chicago as a 4.5 point fave and won but didn't cover. Surely that line and the record of the teams playing are equivalent to this years line and record of the teams that are playing! KC upset the Pack last week as a dog, and now are a fave on the road vs. the Raiders.
Raiders have won 8 straight at home going back to last year and are 2-0 this year.
Chiefs haven't won outright in Oakland since 1999!
Raiders will be a home dog for the first time since 1998!
Raiders have the second most victories (36) on MNF!