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THE GOLD SHEET

Key Releases
WISCONSIN by 15 over West Virginia (Sat., Aug. 30)
FRESNO STATE Plus over Tennessee (Sat., Aug. 30)
KENTUCKY by 17 over Louisville (Sun., Aug. 31)

The Gold Sheet Technical Play of the Week
VANDERBILT over Ole Miss...Rebs 3-10 vs. line under HC Cutcliffe as DD chalk, and Dores covered all 3 as Vandy Stadium dog in ’02.
RICE over Houston...Dog has covered last 3 in local rivalry, Cougs 1-7 last 8 as chalk overall, and Owl HC Hatfield 13-1 vs. number last 14 as dog within city limits.
UCONN over Indiana...Huskies 16-5 vs. points since ’01, while Hoosiers 8-16vs. mark as dog since ’00.
NORTH TEXAS over Oklahoma...Mean Green 16- 8 vs. spread since ’01; Sooners 3-7 last 10 laying 24 or more.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 28

*Maryland 27 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 23 —Clever Maryland HC Friedgen (19-6 vs. spread in his first 2 seasons!) won’t unveil whole package with trip to Fla. State on tap. And,Terps suffered several preseason injuries (see Special Ticker). Stingy UM defense will keep NIU star RB Turner (1915 YR, 20 TDs LY) from running wild. But seasoned QB Haldi & sr. WR Fleck should help with enough plays to keep Huskies close. (DNP...SR: Maryland 1-0)

*Miami-Florida 44 - LOUISIANA TECH 10 —True, Miami has date with Florida up next. But scouts report proud Hurricanes eager to make early statement after losing national title game LY. Miami’s offensive weaponry & defensive speed will make this a happy homecoming for rocket-armed new QB Brock Berlin (Shreveport native). (at Shreveport, La.) CABLE TV—ESPN(00-MIAMI-FLORIDA -40' 42-31...SR: Miami-Florida 2-0)

*AKRON 31 - Kent State 26 — Akron offense returns all 11 starters and most of its backups, including pinpoint jr. QB Frye (66% LY!). But insiders say defense has been torched by Zips’ practice stand-in for versatile Kent jr. QB Cribbs (2076 career rush yards). And Cribbs has reportedly quickly absorbed controlled pass attack of new o.c. Martin (formerly at E. Carolina). Flashes have lost 6 straight to their in-state MAC rivals.

*BYU 31 - Georgia Tech 21 —BYU slipped LY (1st losing season since ‘73!) following 12-2 mark in ‘01, but expect proud Cougs to quickly erase bad taste in revenge game vs. GT. Engineers 2nd-year HC Gailey ( TGS scouts say he’s already on shaky ground) missing 10 players due to academics, and he’ll probably be without sackmeister DE Geathers (see Ticker). Look for BYU’s much-improved 6-6 soph QB Berry & speedier group of WRs to expose revamped GT 2ndary (only 1 starter back). Meanwhile, expect new,unorthodox 3-3-5 Coug “D” (under new d.c. Mendenhall from N.M.) to humble Engineers cocky true frosh QB Ball, making his debut in Provo’s thin air. Huge kicking edge to BYU’s accurate P/PK Payne (13 of 16 FGs LY). TV—ESPN2(02-GA. TECH 28-Byu 19...B.21-19 G.50/210 B.27/79 B.28/57/3/274 G.11/26/3/117 G.0 B.1)(02-GEORGIA TECH -10 28-19...SR: Georgia Tech 1-0)

ADDED GAME
*UTAH 34 - Utah State 10 —Regional sources nticipate brief period of adjustment for Utah offense that’s still adapting to new HC Meyer’s preferred spread formations. But they’re also convinced that talent-shy USU stop unit (ranked 111th LY) presents perfect confidence-enhancing opportunities for whoever wins 3-headed Ute QB derby. And unlikely USU keeps pace with untested jr. Cox now piloting attack. (02-Utah 23-UTAH ST. 3...U.26-9 U.53/282 S.16/9 S.19/42/1/171 U.16/30/0/165 U.0 S.1)(02-Utah -11' 23-3 01-UTAH -9 23-19 00-Utah -11' 35-14...SR: Utah 70-28-4)
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POINTWISE COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* MIAMI-OHIO over Iowa
1* PENN STATE over Temple
2* NEBRASKA over Oklahoma State
3* VANDERBILT over Mississippi
4* GEORGIA over Clemson
4* BUFFALO over Rutgers
5* DUKE over Virginia
5* BRIGHAM YOUNG over Georgia Tech

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THE SUNSHINE FORCAST

Warren Repole first published his newsletter The Sunshine Forecast in 1984. Focusing exclusively on football with selections based on computer power ratings and historical angles, Warren has earned the 3rd most top 10 football rankings (54) for handicappers monitored by Sports Watch from 1993 to 2002.

College Regular Season
Week ending September 1, 2003 0-0
August 30 Georgia -4 @ Clemson
August 30 Western Michigan +13 @ Michigan State

NFL Pre-Season

Overall record: 9-4, 69.2%

Week ending September 1, 2003 0-0
August 29 Denver Broncos -3½ vs Seattle Seahawks
August 29 San Francisco 49ers +1½ @ San Diego Chargers
August 28 Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs New York Jets
August 28 Cleveland Browns -3½ vs Atlanta Falcons

Week ending August 25, 2003 4-2
August 23 Tennessee Titans -1 @ Cincinnati Bengals CORRECT 23-15
August 23 New York Giants +2½ vs New York Jets CORRECT 14-15
August 23 Washington Redskins -2½ vs Baltimore Ravens CORRECT 24-3
August 23 Houston Texans -1½ vs San Diego Chargers WRONG 17-19
August 22 Miami Dolphins -5½ vs Atlanta Falcons CORRECT 30-21
August 21 Pittsburgh Steelers -5½ vs Dallas Cowboys WRONG 15-14

Week ending August 18, 2003 2-1
August 16 Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs Minnesota Vikings CORRECT 26-16
August 16 Arizona Cardinals +4½ @ San Diego Chargers CORRECT 16-10
August 15 Houston Texans +4½ @ Dallas Cowboys WRONG 6-34

Week ending August 11, 2003 3-1
August 10 New York Jets -4 vs Cincinnati Bengals CORRECT 28-13
August 9 Green Bay Packers +3½ @ Atlanta Falcons CORRECT 27-21
August 9 Kansas City Chiefs -4½ vs San Francisco 49ers WRO

WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF NAA FOOTBALL PLAYS:
***BEST BETS
NORTHWESTERN over KANSAS* by 21
CLEMSON* over GEORGIA by 14

**PREFERRED
B.Y.U.* over Georgia Tech by 15 (Thursday)
Wisconsin over West Virginia* by 14
Miami O. over Iowa* by 1
Mississippi over Vanderbilt* by 26

SUMMARY OF NFL PRESEASON FOOTBALL PLAYS:
BEST BETS
****Cleveland* over Atlanta by 15
***San Francisco over San Diego* by 13

**PREFERRED
**Philadelphia* over NY Jets by 13
New Orleans* over Miami by 11

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS

CLEMSON* over GEORGIA by 14

Dawg backers may be trying to talk about the “National Championship” off of last season’s strong run in Athens, but the truth is that the chatter could end on this very day. First we must be honest about the 2002 Bulldogs and their #3 finish in the AP Poll. They were good, but not that good – how about a 5-0 record in games decided by six points or less? And they took advantage of a weakened S.E.C. East, which set them up to face average Arkansas for the conference title, and then the rights to face QB-less Florida State in the Sugar Bowl. So instead of that season being a launching pad for national honors it was more likely a mirage, and now there are genuine problems. Four key contributors left early for the NFL, with only three starters returning on offense, including a very green blocking corps that will not start an upperclassman. Now the defense has major matchup problems here because of attrition through graduation, suspensions and injuries in the back two lines (no returning LB starters, and five DB’s missing from the 2-deep chart for this game). That means trouble against ascending Tiger QB Charlie Whitehurst and a stellar corps of WR’s that can exploit that lack of experience, and Whitehurst should get plenty of time to operate behind a deep and veteran OL. Tigers actually had more first downs and total offense in a tough 31-28 loss at Athens LY, one of those many Bulldog close calls that could easily reverse this time around. CLEMSON 34-20.

***BEST BET
NORTHWESTERN over KANSAS* by 21

Mark Mangino may not have know just how bad things were in Lawrence when he took over the Kansas job, but his actions in year #2 are an indication – 13 of the 26 recruits that he signed were from the JUCO ranks, a sign that an immediate fix is badly needed. But that fix will be anything but immediate – only two of them were available for spring practice, which means a difficult transition of finding new starters during the August practice period. That will cause chemistry problems all the way around, especially where that science matters most – in the OL and the back two lines on defense. And this is after a season in which the defense performed at an absurd level, allowing every lined opponent to score at least 31 points, with half of the schedule reaching 45 or higher. While the new faces are learning the system and the subtleties of their teammates the Northwestern offense will be poised to exploit them fully, with QB Brett Basanez now fully healthy and an excellent compliment of skill people to work with, led by RB Jason Wright. Randy Walker finally has his first full roster of his own recruits, which also means the full offensive playbook is now at his disposal, and the new looks (much more motion before the snap than previous editions) will further confuse a defense that will takes weeks to develop any cohesion. Meanwhile a more aggressive 3-4 defense (vastly improved team speed), also allows the Wildcats to make the occasional stop this season. NORTHWESTERN 48-27.

**PREFERRED
B.Y.U.* over Georgia Tech by 15 (Thursday)

Off of the first losing season in 29 years there is a real sense of urgency to get on track for Gerry Crowton, and the pieces are in place. Now that Matt Berry has had the proper time to get a feel for his offensive schemes they should be closer to past standards on that side of the ball, but for once the real key for the Cougars comes on defense. Not only are 10 starters returning (including eight seniors), but with Bronco Mendenhall coming on board to add his designs it could be the best unit the program has ever produced. They get an opportunity to be dominant here against a Yellow Jacket squad that has precious little experience at the RB and WR spots because of graduation and academic difficulties, and disappointing QB A. J. Suggs is on the verge of losing his job, which is hardly the way to start a season. Cougars held a 19-14 lead in the fourth quarter on the road against the Yellow Jackets LY, and this time are positioned for a strong closeout to begin their turnaround season. BRIGHAM YOUNG 31-16.

Wisconsin over West Virginia* by 14

A classic case of two teams that we expect to head in opposite directions this season, and we will buy in early before the oddsmakers and betting public can catch up. The price is short here because their 2002 campaigns appeared to be even, but the talent is certainly not – let’s remember that the Badgers rolled to a 34-3 lead at halftime in Madison last season and just coasted home to that 34-17 finale. Now they have a veteran and talented cast of skill people (Lee Evans returns!) that can dominate a small an inexperienced Mountaineer defensive front (the DL has a combined total of four career starts), allowing a Barry Alvarez team to dictate their game tempo. That can also force the W.V.U. offense out of its preferred playing rhythm, and after a season in which they had a lot of favorable bounces (an amazing +19 in turnover ratio, never having a single game worse than a -1, and a 9-1 record when + in takeaways), they will show their true colors as things even out this autumn. WISCONSIN 34-20.

Miami O. over Iowa* by 1

Much like Georgia at the top of this page, 2003 could also be a year of “comeuppance” for Iowa as well. They way that they were shattered by U.S.C. in the Orange Bowl shed much light as to where they really belong in the national picture, and for the season they were -12 in first downs, which hardly equates to 11-2. They did have some strong veteran leadership that meant few mistakes, however, and a +15 turnover ratio keyed the campaign. But now that leadership is gone with the departure of Brad Banks and that brilliant OL (four starters gone, three drafted by the N.F.L., in addition to coach Joe Philbin). That makes for a rebuilding season in which they already start out over-rated, and QB Ben Roethlisberger and the RedHawks can take advantage. Having played at Ohio State, Michigan, Hawaii, North Carolina, L.S.U. and here in the past three seasons they will not be intimidated, and they stood toe to toe with Iowa in a 29-24 home defeat LY, in which they led 25-22 in first downs. MIAMI O. 27-26.

Mississippi over Vanderbilt* by 26

This has a chance to be a very special season for Eli Manning, with a deep and talented groups of RB’s and WR’s (Chris Collins and Bill Flowers combined for 108 catches LY), plus a veteran OL, giving him ample opportunity to be a legitimate Heisman contender. In fact, after this one is over, he could easily be the front-runner. Because while the Ole Miss offense should be in mid-season form from the start because of all of that experience, they now face a Vanderbilt defense that returns only two starters from LY, and will not have a senior in the huddle for the opening snap. And that is not the worst of it. The secondary that has to cope with Manning’s passes not only does not return a starter, but there is not a junior or senior in the current lineup. That inexperience will be exploited fully, and the confidence to dominate should certainly be there – Manning threw for 386 yards and two TD’s, without an interception in 41 attempts, in a 45 point outburst vs. a more veteran Vandy defense last season. OLE MISS 49-23.

NFL PRE-SEASON

****BEST BET
Cleveland* over Atlanta by 15 (Thursday)

The Cleveland defense was burned by the mobile QBs on Detroit last week, with secondary guys committing to chasing the quarterback before he had crossed the line of scrimmage. This created space for Lions’ QBs to find open receivers, and they did. But neither of the Atlanta QBs play their position on the move. Doug Johnson and Kurt Kittner are pocket passers, and even if Dan Reeves wants to roll ‘em out more frequently, doing it in the pre-season after Michael Vick was already injured on a rollout would be too risky. Kittner completed only 9 of 22 passes at Miami last week. He is young, inexperienced, and can’t be expected to suddenly throw for 65% overnight. A low completion percentage is not good for your offense OR your defense. Fewer caught balls extends the game and forces your defense to play more downs. There is a reason why Miami controlled clock 38-22 on Atlanta last week despite minus 1 rushing yard from Ricky Williams. Kittner is an INT or an incompletion waiting to happen. William Green, Cleveland’s ball-control RB, did not play last week when the Browns lost. He is not hurt. It was a death-in-the-family matter. If he gets only 8 to 10 carries in this game, it figures to make a positive difference for the Browns. Dan Reeves went into this pre-season on an 11-2 ATS run, but is now 0-3 ATS in 2003. Tides turn, baby. CLEVELAND, 25-10.

***BEST BET
San Francisco over San Diego* by 13 (Friday)

After covering only by the skin of his teeth last Saturday night, San Diego’s Marty Coachenheimer is still only 4-15 ATS in the pre-season in his last five-and-change years as an NFL head coach. After covering by 12 points last week, Dennis Erickson is 3-0 SU and ATS with the 49ers this August, and 14-7 ATS (67%) in the pre-season in his NFL head coaching career. Although point-spread trends aren’t the ultimate in decision-making factors, they provide a solid foundation for what’s left of this analysis. Erickson’s #1 QB, Jeff Garcia, saw his first action of the pre-season last week. He figures to be allowed to do more this week. Despite being saddled with inexperienced QBs behind Garcia, the 49ers had won and covered without him using Rattay, Dorsey and Doman. Erickson wants the San Francisco offense to attack via more downfield throws this season, and that type of approach in a pre-season game vs. a defensive unit that lost lots of experience in the off-season would figure to move chains and score points. San Diego’s normal philosophy is to run LaDanian Tomlinson to eat clock, and establish field position to shorten games. But with Tomlinson exposed much less than usual, and the defense still feeling its way, the Chargers’ M.O. is messed up for the moment. The Erickson approach ain’t gonna work in the long run, but now is now. SAN FRANCISCO, 28-15.

**PREFERRED
Philadelphia* over NY Jets by 13 (Thursday)

Vinny! The guy gets his own comedy series back now that the Golden Penningtonian is hurt! It’ll be a laugh riot for the next 13 weeks! If you have a satellite dish, tune into this game and watch for the ol’ no-look pirouette pass in the flat that gets picked off by a defensive lineman and run back the other way for a TD, with Testaverde’s arms and legs flailing away in sad pursuit. That play, or a variation that comes after a Vinny fumble, has been a staple of Jetsons’ offense for eight years. Since Philly enjoys playing the kind of defense that pressures QBs (doesn’t everyone nowadays?) the chance of that play surfacing increases. Vinny the Stiff, who hasn’t seen much live action since being covered with a white sheet in September 2002, may have to be kept revived a lot longer than normal in this game since Jets’ rookie QB Brooks Bollinger was also hurt in the Giants game last week. Marquel Blackwell, only 5’11” and fresh out of U. South Florida, who looked okay against Giants defensive nobodies, would be the relief thrower against better defensive personnel this time around. PHILADELPHIA, 22-9.

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THE RED SHEET FROM POINTWISE

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
*89 WISCONSIN
*89 DUKE
*88 MIAMI OF OHIO
*88 AUBURN
*88 FRESNO STATE
*88 RICE
*87 Penn State, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Florida State, Texas Tech

DETAILED ANALYSIS ON TOP PLAYS

Wisconsin 33 - WEST VIRGINIA 20 - (12 Noon EDT) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 2½, and is now minus 3. We originally wanted nothing to do with this one, in light of the fact that the pup as been golden when the Badgers take the field, covering to the tune of 29-12 lately. Not only that, but the Mountaineers have the revenge edge, after last year's debacle. However, respected sources say that the depletion of Rodriguez troops is just too much to overcome, regardless the incentive. As we noted earlier in our Wise Points section on Pointwise, Wisky dominated a year ago, & should duplicate that showing especially with its veteran offensive line, vs WV's totally green defensive line. While the Mounties have said goodbye to their star RB Cobourne, look for Badger RB Davis to do his thing. Lay it!
RATING: WISCONSIN 89

VIRGINIA 30 - Duke 23- (7:00) -- Line opened at Virginia minus 16½, and is now minus 16. Sure, backing the Devils is a bit frightening, as they've been among the dregs for so long. They are currently on a 3-33 SU run, while the Cavs are in off yet another winning season, culminated by a romping bowl win, covering by 31 pts. However, despite another 10 setbacks in '02, the Imps weren't their usual doormat selves, as they covered 8-of-12, with 5 of their straightup losses coming by 5 pts or less, including a 27-22 loss to the Cavs. In that one, Duke held a 158-2 RY edge, & returns all 11 offensive starters, along with 9 on defense. Virginia has the brilliance of QB Schaub, along with 14 other starters, but also has South Carolina on deck, & the slightest "look-ahead" only serves to tighten this one all the more.
RATING: DUKE 89