Stay away from playoff teams on the brink
By MARC LAWRENCE
We’ve seen it time and again. Teams scratch and claw to land a spot in the NBA playoffs and before they realize it, they are in over their heads and on the brink of elimination.
This is especially true for teams that have lost three straight playoff games in a row. Like a boxer taking a standing 8-count, these teams are wobbling and ready to fall.
Bettors should be extremely cautious of this situation as the NBA playoffs get into full swing.
From our trusted database, let’s take a look at how playoff teams perform in games immediately after suffering three punches (read: losses) in a row. All results are ATS (against the spread) since 1991, unless noted otherwise.
GOING DOWN, ANYONE?
For openers, NBA teams that have lost three straight playoff games are not trustworthy. That’s confirmed by their 24-36 SU and 24-34-2 ATS mark when looking to stay alive.
Dress them up as favorites and prepare to watch your money go up in flames. These hat-trick artists are 9-12 SU and 6-15 ATS when laying points.
Furthermore, three-straight loss teams are just 4-21 SU and 5-18-2 ATS in games in which they own a win percentage of .600 or less.
Put this same cast of characters in an elimination game in which the Over/Under total is 191 or less and are 1-15 SU and 1-13-2 ATS!
GET OUT THE BROOMS
Here’s one other take on three-straight loss playoff teams. When they are down 0-3 in the series you can dust off the brooms and get them ready for Game 4.
This situation has occurred 34 times since 1991 and the teams on the wrong side of the broom are 11-23 SU and 11-22-1 ATS when looking to avoid the Grand Slam. Worse yet, if they did not lose to the spread by double-digits in their most recent defeat, they dip to 4-12 SU and ATS. Or, if they are a sub .580 team, they stand little-to-no-chance of surviving, going 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS.
Keep this “Down for the Count” theory handy throughout the course of the playoffs. It won’t help the teams facing elimination, but it could save you.