Still barking: Week 9 SEC underdogs
By TIM ROBERTS
Covers.com
A big-time upset in Columbia and late money on the visitors at Tuscaloosa meant betting on SEC underdogs was a winning proposition again in Week 8.
Vanderbilt shocked the Gamecocks last Saturday at the same time as Alabama, a 1-point underdog at kickoff, was laying into the visiting Vols. The pair of against-the-spread (ATS) underdog winners became a trio when Auburn kept things tight at LSU.
All told, SEC dogs are barking to the tune of 17-11 ATS in conference games this season, a .607 payday percentage. Knock the two Mississippi-based schools out of the equation and the record jumps to 14-5 ATS, or .737.
The non-Magnolia State SEC schools, in fact, are 9-10 straight-up (SU) as an underdog this season.
That’s worth noting when it comes to moneyline wagers. The numbers as a whole demand another close look at the SEC dogs in Week 9.
Mississippi State Bulldogs, +13 ½ at Kentucky
The Bulldogs covered the spread last week but did so unimpressively. MSU coughed up 31 points in the first 15:06 at West Virginia and covered as 26-point underdogs only because the Mountaineers rested offensive stars.
Sylvester Croom’s charges visit another ranked opponent on Saturday and Bulldogs-backers have three reasons for optimism.
Mississippi State made last year’s matchup with the Wildcats a 34-31 nail-biter, for starters. Kentucky has also played two slugfests in a row and is bound to let up a little. There’s also the fact that Tony Dixon is hurting, adding to the Wildcats’ backfield woes with Rafael Little already sidelined.
Both Mississippi State and Kentucky are 1-2 SU and ATS over their last three but they’re worlds apart on the field. The Bulldogs are better than last week’s score suggests, but not much. The Wildcats, despite the recent losses, are a top-10 football team.
Move the line past two touchdowns and I’ll consider the visitors, but Kentucky has played too well over the past two weeks to deny them on homecoming weekend in Lexington.
Georgia Bulldogs, +8 ½ against Florida in Jacksonville
The Dawgs are dogged for the third straight year in their annual Cocktail Party clash with the Gators.
Florida will attract public money by virtue of being the defending national champions and its recent strong showings at Baton Rouge and Lexington. That’s just fine for would-be Georgia backers, who note that none of the last five head-to-head games have been decided by more than a touchdown.
The Bulldogs had a bye last week and are better-rested and healthier than the Gators. Florida’s biggest injury concern isn’t who’ll dress on Saturday, but rather how much Tim Tebow’s sore non-throwing shoulder will affect his running game.
Georgia bombed in Knoxville three weeks ago and looked horrible in the first half against Vandy seven days later. The Bulldogs’ stellar second half against the Dores and the recent history of close contests between these two schools, however, are enough for me to take Georgia with the points.
Mississippi Rebels, +17 ½ at Auburn
This is the mystery game of the week. Which Ole Miss squad will show up on Saturday: the good Rebels who nearly upset Florida and Alabama in Weeks 4 and 7 respectively, or the bad Rebels who lost their other three conference games by a combined score of 120-42?
Head coach Ed Orgeron is sticking with Seth Adams as his quarterback, so I’m tempted to think it’ll be the bad Rebs. The 30 points they allowed to LSU aside, Auburn’s defense looks very, very strong. Far too strong, in fact, for Ole Miss to match the 17 points it scored against the Tigers last year at home. (For the record, last year’s Rebels covered as 18-point dogs when Auburn came to Oxford.)
The remaining question is whether the Tigers’ offense can pile up enough points to cover as a heavy favorite. The Rebels’ defensive performance last week at Arkansas says ‘yes’, but they’re just as likely to step up their game after that dud than repeat it.
I’ll take Ole Miss -17 ½ if only because I think a low-scoring game is on tap at Jordan-Hare.
South Carolina Gamecocks, +3 at Tennessee
The last time the Gamecocks visited Neyland Stadium in 2005, they walked away with a 1-point win as two-touchdown underdogs. The spread is a lot slimmer this season but South Carolina remains the underdog.
The Gamecocks laid an egg last week against Vanderbilt but looked no worse than the Vols did at Alabama. In the race to bounce back into SEC East contention the Gamecocks have an edge solely from facing Tennessee’s defense.
The Vols have played four ranked opponents and allowed 20 total touchdowns and an average of 39.8 points in those games. South Carolina was ineffective against the Commodores and head coach Steve Spurrier is hinting that three Cocks quarterbacks could take snaps in Knoxville. Neither fact overshadows Tennessee’s defensive concerns.
Tennessee’s home numbers (3-0 SU and ATS, over 40 points per game) are great but the Gamecocks defense is way too strong to get shellacked like the Vols’ other visiting foes. In a season where the SEC dogs are howling, I’ll take South Carolina and the points.