Sunday NBA Playoff Selection & Analysis
Opinion Selection
CHICAGO +3 over Miami
After the Heat opened up a 2-0 lead in their first-round playoff series, the Bulls dominated the game en route to a Game 3 victory. Miami looks to regain its composure and get Shaquille O'Neal back on track Sunday for Game 4; however, the Heat have lacked composure for much of the series.
In the latest example of Miami "over-Heating", they seemed to lose their cool with just over three minutes remaining in the Game 3 rout. James Posey was called for a flagrant foul two and ejected after knocking down Kirk Hinrich on a break, and six seconds later, Antoine Walker and Udonis Haslem got called for technicals. Now, Posey, averaging 9.7 points and 5.3 rebounds in the playoffs, has been suspended for Sunday's game by the NBA on Friday.
In addition to trying to win without Posey, the Heat must get O'Neal back in rhythm. O'Neal had one of the worst playoff performances in his career, finishing with eight points, four rebounds, five fouls and seven turnovers. He also went 0-for-6 from the free-throw line. "I'm very, very humiliated," said O'Neal, who was fined $25,000 by the NBA on Saturday for publicly criticizing officials after Game 3.
While Shaq figures to come out very aggressively here in Game 4, that still doesn't guarantee an easy Miami victory. Even when O'Neal has played well, the pesky Bulls have been able to keep the games close in the regular season and playoffs.
While this would appear to be an important game for the Heat to bounce back and win, Chicago should be just as motivated. "We know the odds. Ninety-five percent of the time, the team that goes up 2-0 wins the series," Bulls coach Scott Skiles said. "We just talked to the guys about it; in order to really make this a series, we need to win on Sunday. If we go down 3-1 and go to their building, the odds become long again. We need to win the next game to really make it a series."
Miami continues to under-achieve, despite a roster full of name players. The sum is just not equaling the individual parts and they are not giving Pat Riley their all. Recently, Riley traveled to upstate New York and buried his 96-year-old mother. In a college or high-school environment, a team might respond with an emotional effort, as we saw during the Final Four season of Bruce Weber and the Fighting Illini. But the Heat were sluggish, unfocused and somewhere else in Game 3, and it probably didn't help that a few of them were partying in Chicago the night before. This isn't the commitment needed to beat Detroit and reach the NBA Finals, Riley's mission since a Game 7 loss to the Pistons last spring.
It still seems that Miami is overlooking the Bulls, even Alonzo Mourning, who says he needs to save himself for playoff series "down the road". With such disrespect shown a playoff opponent, the Heat have evidently still not got the message that the Bulls aren't going away. The longer they allow Chicago to hang around, the more dangerous the underdogs become. "Our guys are a confident group right now," Skiles said.
Several PRO INFO SPORTS NBA PLAYOFF POWER SYSTEMS support a play on the Bulls in this situation. One that Miami qualifies for states: Play AGAINST an NBA Playoff road team (not an underdog of 10+ points) with 2+ days rest off a SU loss scoring less than 21 points in the 4th quarter. These visitors are just 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by more than points a game on average. Chicago didn't pour in the points in the final quarter either, but that's actually a good omen, as Playoff home teams off a home SU win, scoring less than 23 4th quarter points, are 9-1 SU & 10-0 ATS, pounding the points by 11 ppg on average.
Finally, we note that Playoff home teams with a TOTAL under 208 points and 2+ days rest off a home SU win of less than 24 points and not outscored by 6+ points in the 4th quarter are a sparkling 13-1 SU & 14-0 ATS vs. opponents seeking revenge for a Playoff loss in its last game.
In what should be a great, physical contest with neither team backing down, it figures to go right down to the final possession. Shaq and the Heat may escape with a win, but it will be by the slimmest of margins, as we like the fiesty Bulls to at least cover the number.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MIAMI 99 CHICAGO 98