Sunday NFL

Denver –5

Look for Denver to bounce back from their Monday night loss to Baltimore. They got behind big early and couldn’t recover, even though they played a much better second half. San Diego comes in at 4-0, with a win last week over New England. We’re still not sold on this Chargers team. The first three wins came against teams with a combined record of 3-9 and New England looked as though they were in look ahead mode last week. Drew Brees has done a good job in not making mistakes but has relied on the running game to get where they are. They are 1st in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging 182 ypg and 4.9 ypc. However, they will be facing the toughest run defense in the league; Denver is giving up only 57 ypg and a measly 2.9 ypc. By far this is the toughest defense they will have faced in this young season. On offense, the Broncos are 8th in rushing offense, averaging 5 ypc and 141 ypg but will face a tough Charger run defense that is giving up 77ypg and 3.8 ypc. They will need Brian Griese to play well against the San Diego pass defense that is giving up only 187 ypg. On paper, it looks like San Diego has the advantage in this game, but Denver is coming off a big Monday night loss and the San Diego schedule has been average at best. The defense has not changed much from last year, where they ranked middle of the road in most categories, so the soft schedule has added a lot to their numbers thus far. Look for Denver to bounce back in their division home opener.

Miami –3

The Dolphins come back home after they were pounded last week at Kansas City. They were in the middle of a divisional sandwich, defeating the NY Jets the prior week in Miami. The focus will be back this week against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop the run the last two weeks. The Patriots allowed Kansas City 221 yards on the ground at 6.5 ypc, with Priest Holmes gaining 180 yards. Last week, San Diego rushed for 238 yards and 7 ypc and LaDainian Tomlinson ran for 217 yards. Now New England will get to try and contain Ricky Williams, who is averaging 115 ypg and 5.6 ypc. Overall, Miami is gaining 165 ypg and 5.1 ypg while the Patriot defense allows 141 ypg and 5.6 ypc. Miami will go right into the teeth of this defense and get Williams involved plenty. Fiedler ranks 8th in the AFC in pass efficiency rating of 87.8 with 7 TD’s and 5 INT’s. New England will be going after Williams, which should open up some opportunities for Fiedler and the passing game against the Patriot defense that is 1st in the NFL. Miami should be able to contain the rushing game of New England that is 17th with 103 ypg and 4.1 ypc. The Dolphins rush defense is 9th, giving up only 3.6 ypc and 94 ypg. The weak area that could cause a problem is the Miami passing defense, that ranks 24th with 239 ypg and almost 7 ypa. New England is 1st in passing offense with 325 ypg and 7.1 ypa. The Patriots are using Brady’s arm so far in this young season, as they have thrown more passes that any other team in the NFL. The Dolphins will get a boost with the return of CB Patrick Surtain, who has missed the last two games with a knee injury. Both teams suffered their first loss of the season last week; probably due to lack of focus, and Miami has the big advantage with this game being at home. Miami is 14-5-1 ATS at home since 2000.

New Orleans –3

The Saints return home after a disappointing loss to Detroit last week, giving them their first loss of the season. Pittsburgh meanwhile got their first victory last week, an overtime win over Cleveland. Pittsburgh rallied behind QB Tommy Maddux, who was named the starter this week against New Orleans. This will be the first start this year for the former XFL MVP. Look for Pittsburgh to turn to Jerome Bettis to take some of the pressure of Maddux. The Steelers are ranked 24th, averaging only 80 ypg and 3.1 ypc on the ground so it may be a challenge to get the running game going. Especially going against the stingy run defense of the Saints that is ranked 11th in the league, giving up only 94 ypg and 3.7 ypc. The passing defense is the Achilles of the Saints defense, ranked 26th in the league. But with a new QB on the road, the Steelers will not be trying to make a lot happen with Maddux right away. On offense, New Orleans ranks 12th in total offense, 15th rushing and 12th passing. The Steeler defense will have trouble with Brooks and the solid receiving corps, as they are ranked 28th against the pass. New England and Oakland took advantage of the passing defense, throwing much more than rushing and keeping the defense off-balance. Deuce McAllister has made a great transition taking over for Ricky Williams – he is second in the NFC in yards with 338 and is averaging 4.2 ypc. As a team the Saints are averaging 4.4 ypc while the Steelers are allowing an un-Steeler like 4.8 ypc. The Saints will want to get back on track after last weeks debacle against the Lions and Maddux will not be the answer to get the Steelers back on track.

NY Jets +3

Whereas the Tommy Maddux move seems to be the wrong move for the Steelers, the Chad Pennington move for the Jets could jump start a lifeless offense. Pennington will start in place of Vinny Testaverde, partly due to a shoulder injury and partly due to a need of a change. This is a good spot to get Pennington going against the Kansas City defense that ranks last in the NFL in passing. They are giving up 341 ypg and 8 ypa, second only to the Vikings who give up 8.6 ypa. The rushing defense ranks 12th with 98 ypg and 4.4 ypc, which is 25th. Curtis Martin will need to get going, as he has been invisible through the first four weeks. He is healthy and can single handedly get this offense going. If Martin goes, so goes Pennington. They will be without Wayne Chrebet, but do get Santana Moss back. The soft Jets rushing defense will try to stop Priest Holmes, who is having an all-pro season, averaging 110 ypg and 4.5 ypc. The Jets defense ranks 10th overall, yielding 296 ypg and will need to control the Chiefs output, something Miami had trouble doing last week. The Jets are off next week and they need to go into the bye week on a winning note and they are in good position here with a possible KC letdown and a new, hungry quarterback taking over.

Tennessee –5.5

Tennessee is looking to get back on track after getting embarrassed last weekend at Oakland. Washington comes in off a bye week after losing their last two games to Philadelphia and San Francisco. Danny Wuerffel has been given the nod to start the game for the Redskins, an offense that ranks 27th in the league, averaging 279 ypg. The Tennessee defense isn’t much better, ranked 27th, giving up 358 ypg, but they are solid against the run, ranked 5th giving up 82 ypg and 3.7 ypc. This will help trying to stop Stephen Davis, who is off to a slow start, gaining 72 ypg and 4.2 ypc. The passing game of Washington hasn’t been quite what Steve Spurrier had hoped for as they are only putting up 190 ypg. Tennessee looks healthy offensively once again and will look for Eddie George to have a big game against the Redskins rushing defense that is 30th in the league, giving up 163 ypg and 5.5 ypc. Washington has the overall worst defense in the NFL, giving up 439 ypg. Feeling is that neither Wuerffel nor Matthews is a top caliber NFL quarterback that can carry a team where they want to go. Tennessee has the veteran leadership that can get this team back to where they want to be. Spurrier is going through his NFL growing pains and will experience another long day in Nashville.

GL!