SUNDAY NFL SELECTION
Jacksonville +1½ over HOUSTON
The 2 surprises of the AFC South battle at Reliant Stadium on Sunday, when the Houston Texans host to the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars. The 3rd-year Texans have come on strong following an 0-2 start, with a 20-10 victory at Tennessee in Week 6 pulling the squad to .500 prior to last Sunday's bye. Houston sits just a game-and-a-half back of the Jags in the division, and is easily the latest in any season that they have not had a losing record. Jacksonville, meanwhile, comes off its most impressive victory in a season of impressive victories. The team's 27-24 win at Indianapolis pushed Jack Del Rio's team to the top of the division and matched the franchise's 2003 win total.
Jacksonville QB Byron Leftwich led his team to yet another heart-stopping victory in Indianapolis. The Jags passing game has improved dramatically since the start of the season as Leftwich is spreading the football around to many different receivers. He should have a fair amount of success here as Houston’s young secondary has taken its lumps this year, and comes into this week ranked near the bottom of the NFL passing defense rankings. The Texans “D†hasn't had much help from a pass rush that has been good for only 11 sacks thus far. Just as Leftwich’s arm is heating up, RB Fred Taylor posted his first 100-yard game of the year which can only give opposing defenses more to be concerned about. The Texans have not been strong against the run this year, allowing 126 rushing yards per game.
Houston has also made itself a player in the AFC South thanks to a young quarterback who is hitting his stride. David Carr has played well in his third year as a pro, and in his last outing completed 16 of 26 passes for 266 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee. An offensive line that has allowed 16 sacks could be without right tackle John Wade, who is questionable. The Jaguars have struggled against the pass at times in 2004, with a weak pass rush that has accounted for just 12 sacks ranking as the main culprit. The secondary has been better than advertised this year, and last week held the Colts' dynamic duo of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne to a modest seven catches combined. The biggest disappointment for Houston in 2004 has been the play of running back Domanick Davis, who has averaged fewer than three yards per rush amid myriad injury problems. Following the Week 7 bye, he is still not 100%, so expect to also see RB Jonathan Wells pressed into action. Houston comes into this week ranking 23rd in NFL rushing offense and doesn’t figure to have it any easier against a Jacksonville defense that held the Colts' Edgerrin James to 87 yards on 18 carries last week.
While many figure that the Jaguars will suffer a letdown after last week's monumental win in Indy, we like their chances here. Last week’s victory should provide them with additional energy here, as the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters the Jags are 5-0 ATS. Being made an underdog should have them focused here, and realize their division lead could vanish with a loss and Colts win.
Houston is the fresher team following last Sunday's bye; however, a bye week can also be a negative if it serves to cool off a hot team, and that’s what we expect here. In fact for the third consecutive week, the Jaguars will be playing a team coming off a bye when they visit Houston. They already beat Kansas City and Indianapolis who were also off big wins prior to their respective weeks of rest. Having a bye before playing the Jaguars didn't help the Chiefs or the Colts, and won’t likely be a big help for the Texans in this situation. A couple of PRO INFO SPORTS POWER SYSTEMS demonstrate just who is in the favorable situation here. Road teams before a bye week with a line between -5.5 and +12.5 are 11-0-1 ATS vs. opponents off their bye week, beating the spread by more than 10 points a game on average. This POWER SYSTEM is already 2-0 on the season with the Giants and Redskins getting SU & ATS victories in identical spots. Houston also qualifies for several “play AGAINST†POWER SYSTEMS, some involving bye weeks. One involves teams off a bye and a road underdog SU win prior to the bye, while another involves teams off a bye playing opponents off a road SU & ATS win. Combined, the POWER SYSTEMS are 29-0 ATS, including 3-0 in 2004.
It can be very tough for a downtrodden program to escape constant losing seasons. Sometimes a team that has been a losing team for several years will get off to a good start and be installed as a rare favorite. This can be tough for teams to handle. Their coach probably had no trouble getting them “up†as an underdog but when the players begin to hear that they are supposed to win they do not know what to do. Losing squads can’t handle the role of favorite when they are familiar with the underdog mentality. Houston already demonstrated their inability to play as a favorite in their season opener when they fell flat against San Diego. It’s likely that this game will once again come down to the final moments, and Jacksonville has proven themselves time and again this season in such situations. We like their chances here of pulling off another late SU & ATS win.