SUNDAY NFL SELECTION
Houston +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans in a Sunday AFC South matchup at the Hoosier Dome. Indy is coming off their Monday FG home win over Minnesota, moving the team into a first-place division tie with Jacksonville, with Houston is looking to rebound off a 31-13 loss in Denver last Sunday.
Houston QB David Carr will be looking to locate his #1 receiver Andre Johnson, as the pair have become a deadly connection helping Houston to rank fifth in NFL passing offense. They should find success here, as the Colts continue to rank dead last in NFL passing defense. The Texans could use a helping hand from RB Domanick Davis, who has yet to live up to his potential this season. Indianapolis allowed the Vikings to churn up 138 ground yards on just 24 carries on Monday, so Davis could have his breakout game here. Houston will need to hit their offensive stride here to keep up with the Colts.
Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning is having another MVP-type season, leading the Colts top-ranked passing offense. Houston ranks 25th in NFL passing defense, so they will have their work cut out for them; however, help is likely to come from the most unlikely of sources – Manning and the Colts. Indy eased off the offensive pedal on Monday, as they employed something approaching a run-first scheme. RB Edgerrin James carried the ball 26 times for 123 yards against the Vikings' porous defense. The result of the offensive adjustment was a win, but it took a FG in the waning moments to avoid OT. Houston has had some difficulty stopping the run this season, but they should fare better than Minnesota.
The Texans played Indianapolis tight in both games last season. They led 14-3 in the second quarter in the first meeting and 17-3 in the fourth quarter in the season finale. They lost both times SU, but recorded spread wins, and the same outcome is likely here. Houston may be better-equipped than at any time to pile up some numbers against this Colts secondary. They have also experienced some success at running the ball against the Colts, primarily because the Indianapolis “Cover-2†is designed to prevent big pass plays but is vulnerable against the run. Domanick Davis appears to be on the verge of shaking off his bad start and that will be crucial in allowing the Texans to control the clock and keep the potent Colts offense off the field. If this game turns into a shootout, for the first time in their brief history, the Texans believe they have enough bullets to keep up and keep on firing.
A PRO INFO SPORTS POWER SYSTEM indicates the host will struggle here. Since 1996, home favorites of 3+ points off a non-division home SU win of less than 5 points as a favorite of 3+ points in its last game have simply not got the job done. As long as the win was not their first of the season, these teams have gone 0-13 ATS, while failing to cover the spread by more than 11 points a game on average. After recording 2 wins last year, this POWER SYSTEM is active for the first time in 2004.
Indy could also fall victim to the Monday Night jinx that has afflicted the recent winners of these primetime affairs, as the victor is just 2-12 ATS in their next outing going back to last year. Other numbers also reveal what a tough spot the Colts are in here, as they are a disastrous 1-12 ATS as a home favorite of more than 6 points off a spread loss in their last game, 1-11 ATS at home vs. division opponents off a road game, 1-8 ATS at home vs. divisional foes between non-division games, and just 4-11-1 ATS as a November favorite. Meanwhile, they face a Texans team that is 6-0 ATS off a SU loss in November and 5-0 ATS vs. opponents off a SU win in November. Off their embarrassing loss in Denver last week, look for Houston to come back strong here and give the Colts their best effort. Indianapolis may survive and escape with the SU win, but the Texans should at least keep the margin in single digits to record the spread victory.