Sunday NFL Selection
Detroit +8 over MINNESOTA
It can’t get much tighter in the NFC North race, but it may if the Lions can beat the Vikings in Minnesota on Sunday. All four teams in the division are separated by one game, with the 5-4 Packers and Vikings one game ahead of the 4-5 Lions and Bears. Both teams enter the game here on 3-game losing streaks with Detroit falling in OT at Jacksonville last week and Minnesota coming up short in Green Bay.
Detroit quarterback Joey Harrington started the season hot but has since gone cold. His job appears to be safe for the moment, but he'll need to be more productive beginning with this week to stay off the bench. Head coach Steve Mariucci had the QBs split time with the first team in practice this week, which should light a fire under Harrington. Expect him to be crisp and fresh after returning to the team following a brief break. Harrington attended the funeral of a family friend at his home in Portland, Oregon on Tuesday, his day off. "Anytime you're in those kind of situations it really does put back into perspective what's important," he said. "When I came back…I felt fresh. I felt grounded again. My head wasn't swirling and things in my life are back in line again." Facing a beleaguered Minnesota secondary might get just about any QB in the league back on track. They were torched for four touchdown passes by Brett Favre last Sunday, and have just four interceptions this season. The weak Minnesota pass rush did not sack Favre once in the loss and the Vikings rank 29th in NFL passing defense. The Lions stumble into the Metrodome still sporting the NFL's worst rushing offense, but may have taken a step in the right direction last Sunday with rookie Kevin Jones. The Virginia Tech phenom has been beset by injuries and inconsistency this year, but rushed a season-high 19 times for 81 yards in the loss. Look for Jones to take over as the main ball carrier for Detroit, giving the offense a consistent threat. Again, success should be just around the corner here, as the Vikings struggled to slow the Packers on the ground last week, allowing Ahman Green to total 145 of the club's 206 rushing yards. Overall, Minnesota ranks 22nd in the league against the run.
The Vikings are once again expected to be without All-Pro wide receiver Randy Moss. They have yet to win without him, although QB Daunte Culpepper still threw for 363 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s defeat. The Viking line did allow four sacks last Sunday, and has now given up 24 on the year. Detroit’s front 4 will focus on getting pressure on Culpepper. They did hold the Jaguars to a modest 198 yards through the air last week. Minnesota has the deepest backfield in the league with Mewelde Moore, Michael Bennett, and Onterrio Smith leading the way. Minnesota remains a respectable 13th in NFL rushing offense, while Detroit comes into this game ranked 26th in the NFL against the run, so stopping the Vikes’ running game will also be a key here for the Lions.
Obviously, both of these clubs are desperate for a win to stop after 3 losses. The absence of Minnesota’s franchise player, Moss, will certainly benefit Detroit here as big underdogs. Culpepper and company should still have some success moving the ball and may get the SU win, but we but don't expect the Lions to go down without a fight. Detroit should be able to do a fair amount of damage when they have the ball as well. As if the Minnesota Vikings' 30th-ranked defense didn't have enough problems already, two key players missed practice time Friday due to illness. Defensive tackle Chris Hovan left the team's practice facility before Friday's morning walkthrough after experiencing flu-like symptoms. Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson also missed part of practice with similar symptoms.
Minnesota is 0-4 ATS at home the past several seasons off 2 road defeats at home against division foes, while Detroit is 4-0 ATS in the reverse role as an underdog of more than 3 points. The Lions have their annual Thanksgiving Day home game coming up next Thursday, and will certainly want to bring some momentum into that nationally televised game against the high-powered Colts. Since 1991, the Lions have roared as underdogs of more than 5 points prior to their Thursday home games, going 5-0 ATS and covering the spread by 11 points a game on average. We also have a very strong PRO INFO SPORTS POWER SYSTEM active here. NFL teams have been tremendous in covering the spread before a Thursday contest when coming off a road game. Under the exact parameters as described in this week’s NFL POWERePORT, the league is an amazing 26-0-2 ATS since 1989. Detroit started very well on the road this season with SU wins at Chicago, against the New York Giants, and at Atlanta. They certainly have a good chance of pulling off the SU win here as well, and should at least cover the spread in a very close contest.