SUNDAY NFL SELECTION
DETROIT -3½ over Arizona
Two teams searching for a victory meet up at Ford Field when the Lions host the Cardinals on Sunday. Visiting Arizona, at 2-6, is limping in literally as injuries to key players are piling up. Detroit is in slightly better shape with a 3-5 record and is getting some injured players back on the field.
Kurt Warner played to mixed reviews once again last week, as he threw for over 300 yards, but had trouble getting his team into the endzone, threw 3 INTs, suffering four sacks, and lost a fumble. It was a typical day at the office for Warner, who dropped his record to 0-4 SU & ATS as Arizona’s starting QB. He was already without the injured WR Boldin, and now will be without WR Bryant Johnson. Warner will be challenged by the Lions 10th-ranked passing defense, and probably won’t get much help from the running game, as the Cardinals are next-to-last in rushing offense, and have not scored a TD on the ground yet this season. Detroit ranks 16th in the league in rushing defense but will be bolstered by the return of DT Shaun Rogers.
Joey Harrington will get the start for Detroit once again, as Jeff Garcia is not quite healthy enough to go. Harrington had a rough day in Minnesota last week, but should fare much better this week. He’ll be at home, face a much weaker defense, and will have someone to throw the ball to. Both WRs Charles Rogers and Roy Williams are back this week, which should be a big boost to the passing game. The Cardinals come in very short-handed on the D-line after losing their best player in Bertrand Berry, and will have a tough time getting pressure on the passer without him. Arizona is also banged-up in the secondary, where former backup Robert Tate is starting at one corner opposite David Macklin. Lions’ RB Kevin Jones should have many more chances to carry the ball here and be successful against the Cards’ 22nd-ranked rushing defense.
The significance of the loss of Berry for Arizona can’t be overstated. His loss is especially devastating, because the team has such little depth. In training camp, the defensive line was expected to be a strength. Then backup tackle Kenny King went down with a wrist injury in camp. Nose tackle Russell Davis was lost in the third game of the season when he suffered a torn biceps. Backup defensive end Calvin Pace suffered a severe cut in a household incident in the bye week and is also gone for the year. Nose tackle Langston Moore suffered a shoulder injury Sunday and he's out for the season. The starter, for now, in place of Berry is Antonio Smith, a fifth-round pick in 2004. He has spent most of the past two seasons on the practice squad, and was simply tossed around at times by Seattle left tackle Walter Jones last week. On offense, the Cardinals can't run the ball, have a shaky line that gives its quarterbacks unreliable protection, and is essentially down to Larry Fitzgerald as a receiving threat. That doesn't give coaches a lot of room to be creative in concocting a game plan.
If Detroit wants to get back in the NFC North race, they know they have to have a strong showing here. It’s the perfect opportunity for both the offense and defense to have big days. Several of their injured top-line players - and the suspended Charles Rogers - are ready to return to action and they should be ready to make a significant difference on the field here.
The Lions should certainly have confidence against the Cardinals, as they have smacked Arizona around in each of the last 2 years here, going 2-0 SU & ATS, winning by 16 points and beating the spread by 13 points on average. Steve Mariucci is 6-0 SU against the Cardinals all-time, including a 4-0 record while he served with the 49ers, and the 2-0 mark in Detroit. We also note that the Lions are a sizzling 9-0 ATS off 2 SU/ATS losses with an O/U line of 35+ points, while Arizona is 0-4 ATS in the reverse role on the road. The Cards are also 0-6 ATS overall as a road underdog vs. opponents on a losing streak of at least 2 games, 0-5 ATS on the road before another road game, and an ugly 0-10 ATS on the road when not getting 10+ points and coming off losses in each of the past 2 weeks. In this last situation, they have failed to cover the spread by a whopping 16 points a game on average.
Finally, we reveal a strong PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEM that is active here. Arizona qualifies for this Play-AGAINST system as a road underdog of more than 2 points with an O/U line less than 59 points coming off a non-Saturday home game allowing 32+ points and road game before that allowing 31+ points. Following such a defensive collapse in consecutive games, these road teams are 0-22 SU & ATS, failing to cover by more than 11 points a game on average. This POWER SYSTEM is already 3-0 SU & ATS on the season, as we look for another solid win here, as Detroit should dispose of the Cardinals for a comfortable SU & ATS victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: DETROIT 27 ARIZONA 12