Sunday NFL Selection
Sunday, September 10, 2006
10:00 AM PT/1:00 PM ET
Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)
Baltimore +3 over TAMPA BAY
The Ravens fly south to kick off the 2006 NFL season, as they go to war with the Buccaneers. Steve McNair will make his debut as Baltimore’s QB after coming over from the Titans. McNair will finally give Brian Billick a chance to revive the Ravens dormant passing game.
McNair will no doubt be looking for ex-Tennessee teammate Derrick Mason, as they hooked up many times when both played for the Titans. McNair will have his hands full in avoiding a Tampa Bay pass rush led by end Simeon Rice, and will also have to navigate the football through a talented secondary guided by cornerbacks Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly. Even with the addition of a legitimate passing threat, Baltimore will still be a run-first team. Looking to bounce back from a horrendous 2005 season, Jamal Lewis returns to the backfield for the Ravens, and will be joined by newcomer Mike Anderson. Tampa was 6th in the NFL against the run last season, and will make it tough for the Ravens to run, all the more reason Baltimore will lean on McNair here.
The key to the Tampa Bay offense in 2006 figures once again to be “Cadillac†Williams. As a rookie from Auburn, he helped the Bucs get off to a strong start last year, before wearing down toward the end of the season. It will also be tough sledding for Tampa Bay, as the Ravens are also very good against the run. In 2005, they ranked 9th in the NFL with an injury-plagued stop unit. Healthy once again, they expect a return to defensive dominance, led by 6-time All-Pro middle linebacker Ray Lewis.
For Chris Simms, this will be his first season to start as Tampa's #1 QB. He’s 7-5 as a starter in parts of the past two seasons and will be looking for WRs Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton, along with TE Alex Smith. A Tampa line that allowed 41 sacks last season is still a work in progress and could be a big problem here against the Ravens defensive onslaught. Fixing the offensive line was one of the main missions of the Buccaneers in the offseason. They signed veteran linemen Torrin Tucker and Toniu Fonoti and drafted guard Davin Joseph and tackle Jeremy Trueblood; however, the Bucs aren't getting a break, and in some ways, the line they open the season with could be a little less talented than last year’s leaky unit.
We look to play AGAINST a team suffering from a cluster of injuries in one area, especially if the team is favored. With no depth at the guard position, Tampa will be vulnerable to fatigue in addition to being unable to replace the absent talent.
Both teams feature speed more than size on defense, which is vulnerable to getting physically worn down against a power running game. This edge clearly goes to the Ravens, with their mammoth offensive line and big backs. Baltimore’s speed on defense should allow them to keep the “Cadillac†from running wild and having a big game.
Finally, we note that Baltimore is 6-2 SU & 7-0-1 ATS as a non-division road underdog of more than 1 point in the first month of the season, going back to 1991. Since moving to Baltimore, they are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS in this spot. Meanwhile, Tampa is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS as a non-division home favorite of 3+ points since 2000.
The defenses in this game should keep the score close throughout, but we look for McNair to make more clutch throws than Simms, aided by what should be the better running game, allowing the Ravens to steal a long-awaited road victory.