Sunday NFL Selection

Sunday NFL Selection

Sunday, September 17, 2006

10:00 AM PM/1:00 PM ET

Opinion Selection (1% of Bankroll)

Tampa Bay +6 over ATLANTA

The Buccaneers hit the road to face the Falcons in a key early-season NFC South showdown. Tampa Bay has had a lot of success in slowing down Michael Vick and beating Atlanta, including a sweep of the “Dirty Birds” in 2005.

In the 2006 opener, the teams were on the opposite ends of surprising outcomes. The Bucs were blanked as home favorites, 27-0, last week by Baltimore, while the Falcons were upsetting Carolina as a road underdog, 20-6.

Atlanta simply dominated a Panther club that has been hyped as a Super Bowl contender. Up until last year, the Falcons had always played well with Vick against Carolina, and they returned to those winning ways to start the new season. It’s been a different story against Tampa, as Buccaneers head coach Jon Gruden has a career mark of 7-2 SU against the Falcons, including a win while with the Oakland Raiders in 2000. Atlanta's Jim Mora is 1-3 SU in his career against both Gruden and Tampa Bay.

Bucs quarterback Chris Simms will be attempting to bounce back from a poor 2006 debut, one that saw him complete 17-of-29 passes for 133 yards with three interceptions and a couple of sacks. He has had poor performances before and has come back strong, which is obviously what his teammates are counting on here.

The Falcons' new-look pass rush received rave reviews last week, as ex-Jets end John Abraham notched two of Atlanta's four sacks in his formal debut with the team. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Abraham is unlikely to play this week due to a groin injury sustained in last week’s victory, which will certainly make life a bit easier for Simms and the Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers will look to get their “Cadillac” on track here. He was sidelined for part of the Ravens game with back spasms, but will be back in action for this contest. He had two 100-yard days on the Falcons last year, and with multiple injuries on the Atlanta stop unit, he could get loose here as well.

While, Michael Vick did the Panthers in once again with both his arm and legs last week, the Falcons have their own little “coupe” in Warrick Dunn, who ran all over the Carolina vaunted defense. Dunn’s ability to duplicate that effort against Tampa Bay, for which Dunn played from 1997 through 2001, is in question, however. In six career meetings against the Bucs, Dunn has averaged just 3.6 yards per rush, 46.8 yards per contest, and has never scored a touchdown nor logged a 100-yard game. Dunn will be going up against a Tampa Bay defense that was less-than-healthy in the run-stopping game a week ago. Middle linebacker Shelton Quarles missed the contest, leaving the Bucs to battle Jamal Lewis and company without the cagey veteran; however, Quarles will play this week.

While we don’t expect Tampa to win this South division again, they are certainly better than they showed last week. We faded them last week, but aren’t afraid to reverse course here. It hasn’t been a happy week for this team under Jon Gruden, and they will come into Atlanta to take care of business. Under “Chucky”, the Bucs are a perfect 4-0 SU & ATS on the road after a non-division home SU loss. We look to play ON teams that have some amount of pride off a horrible performance, and you can’t get much worse than a 27-0 home shutout.

The wagering public is being quite fickle with these teams here, and has over-reacted to last week’s results, as demonstrated by a PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEM which states:

In Week 2, play ON a conference underdog/pick ‘em off being a favorite in its last game vs. an opponent off an underdog SU win in its last game.

Not only are these conference pups 11-0 ATS since 1990, they are an incredible 10-1 SU!

In looking at some Falcon numbers, we find that they are 0-8 ATS at home off a SU win vs. opponents off a SU loss since 1999, including 0-7 ATS “WV” (with Vick).

While Atlanta’s rushing success last week was impressive, it’s likely to give the team a false sense of security. Another PRO INFO SPORTS NFL POWER SYSTEM reveals that the Falcons are in for a rude awakening here. Since 1989, single-digit favorites off a division SU win in which they rushed for 250+ yards the previous week are 0-18 ATS vs. opponents not off a home SU loss as a favorite of 7+ points in their last game.

Atlanta has been here before, as they were favored by 7½-points against the Ravens in Week 9 of the 2002 season after running roughshod at New Orleans. The Falcons barely hung on for the 20-17 victory, but failed to cover the spread. In this war, it won’t come easy either, as this game should come right down to the wire, with a late kick deciding the outcome.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TAMPA BAY 21 ATLANTA 20

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