Sunday’s OPINION SELECTION
Washington -3 over CLEVELAND
The Cleveland Browns return home off 2 road losses to play their 3rd straight NFC East opponent. The Washington Redskins are off 2 losses of their own, including Monday’s home defeat against Dallas.
Since rushing for a 64-yard touchdown on the third offensive play of the Redskins' season, Clinton Portis has been held to 3.4 yards per carry, hasn't found the end zone via the ground, and has fumbled twice. The Washington line has been one culprit in the downward trend, and Portis should improve as he learns their tendencies. He should get some excellent opportunities here to have a big day. Cleveland will try to stop the run without defensive tackle Gerard Warren, who is injured and out for the year. Washington QB Mark Brunell showed few effects from the hamstring injury that knocked him from the Giants game, heating up down the stretch and completing 25 of 43 passes for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss to Dallas.
The Browns will this week welcome back the services of running back Lee Suggs, who was handed the No. 1 job in the preseason but missed all of September with a neck stinger. He will get a rude greeting from a Washington defense that has suffocated the run in 2004, and leads the NFL through three weeks in total rushing yards allowed, yards per attempt, and yards per game. Cleveland QB Jeff Garcia played reasonably well in the Giants loss, but he is still not comfortable in this system, and an attacking Redskins defense will try to keep him from settling in.
Washington should find Cleveland a good spot to get their season turned around. The Browns are a MASH unit disguised as a football team, as they had 8 starters out last week, and it doesn’t figure to be better this week. The Redskins should respond strongly after the Cowboys loss, as they are 4-0 ATS after hosting Dallas, beating the spread by nearly 2 TDs a game. Certain NFL road favorites that are a game under .500% after a SU loss of less than 6 points, have been very strong in their next outing, as detailed in a PRO INFO SPORTS POWER SYSTEM. We find an even stronger scenario when looking at a similar situation involving teams off a Monday SU loss. As long as they are not a favorite of 4+ points, road teams off a Monday favorite or pick ‘em SU loss last week to fall a game under .500%, have been perfect for over 20 seasons. It’s a somewhat rare situation that has come up only 8 times since 1984; however, these teams are without a SU or spread loss, while winning and covering by an average of a whopping 15 points a game, each.
The Browns struggles are likely to continue here in this brief stay home. It’s back on the road next week, and we note that Cleveland is 0-5 SU & ATS at home in between road contests. The fans will have little patience for a slow start from the Browns, removing much of the home field advantage once that happens. One of these teams will lose their 3rd straight after a promising start to the season, and we see Washington as the team to turn things around here with a solid SU & ATS victory.