MARCH 9TH NBA:
New Jersey @ New Orleans 7:05 PM EST
New Orleans -3.5 over New Jersey (5 Units)
It's the NBA's version of Trading Places when the New Jersey Nets head to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Hornets... at the All-Star break, life looked rosy in the penthouse for the Nets, as they were 34-14 and in sole control of the Atlantic Division... now, with seven losses in their last eight games, and a 4-10 SU record (and a 3-11 ATS mark) since the season resumed in mid-February, the Nets are in serious jeopardy of seeing their season fall into chaos...
The Hornets, on the other hand, have had a reversal of fortune of their own since the break... sitting at just one game above .500, New Orleans has rattled off eight straight victories to push their record to 36-27 and place themselves in a solid position to shoot for a top seed within the Eastern Conference... with five straight home wins, and eight of their last nine at home a victorious effort, the Hornets have re-established themselves as an elite home team after a 1-6 span took a lot of luster off their 11-0 start at home... New Orleans has obviously learned how to adjust without Baron Davis, as they have now scored at least 91 points in each of their last seven games, and ten of their last eleven overall... and with the Baron slated to return to action on March 11th, things couldn't be looking much brighter for the Hornets...
While the Hornets nest has been buzzing with offense, the Nets seem to have lost all ability to put the ball in the bucket, with three straight contests of 79 points or less following them into this contest... what has been even more pathetic for the Nets has been their performance on the road since the break, as New Jersey has dropped a whopping SEVEN straight road games both SU and ATS heading into this contest... 90 points has been the high water mark on offense for the Nets during this span, and with just 82.4 ppg as their scoring average on the road since the All-Star break, we have an incredibly difficult time seeing the Nets even competing with the Hornets, let alone covering a 3.5-point spread... not only have the Nets lost to the likes of Cleveland, Memphis and Washington during this span, but they got pummeled by a Houston Rockets team that was without Steve Francis... this does not appear to be a New Jersey team that is capable of salvaging the last game of a pitiful four-game road swing... look for the Hornets to bring New Jersey's disastrous road trip to a merciful end with a double-digit blowout victory, and for the Nets to try and regroup for their upcoming key set of games against Boston and Philadelphia...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS 99, NEW JERSEY 84
Washington @ New York 1:05 PM EST
New York/Washington Under 190 (4 Units)
When the Knicks host the Wizards to open ABC's Sunday NBA card, they will do so hoping to break a five game losing streak against Michael Jordan and company... and while their chances of doing so seem to be fairly strong (considering New York is 9-3 SU in their last twelve at home, and 8-1 SU/7-1-1 ATS as a home favorite, while the Wizards are just 2-8 SU/ATS on the road), we are more inclined to look at the total as a play, as 190 points seems a bit too high for these teams considering their past history of play against one another...
The Wizards have already had more than enough trouble scoring points on the road, putting up 83 points or less in their last four road games, and just 84.3 ppg in their last eight games on the road, an average that has been skewed by a 108 point performance against the Clippers... in each of their other seven road games, the Wiz have failed to break past the 90 point barrier, and considering that they have scored between 87 and 91 points in each of their last five visits to New York, we doubt Washington will break the 90 point barrier today as well...
So how has Washington covered five of their last six games against the Knicks, including their last three visits to the Big Apple? Well, their defense has been the key, as New York has scored 93 points or less in each of their last four home games against Michael Jordan and company, including just 86 and 84 points in their last two home contests against the Wizards... and while the Knicks have been a much more productive team on offense this season than in years past, their output has slowed as of late, as New York has scored 95 points or less in three of their last four games... meanwhile, the Wizards have done their part on the defensive end as of late, holding their last ten opponents to just 89.5 ppg, including holding each of their last three opponents to just 86 ppg, and their last three opponents overall to 89 points or less...
With both these teams still harboring hopes for the playoffs and both sitting outside the top eight spots right now, we're expecting a game where defense is emphasized, and the open shot is rarely available... the highest point total in the last four games between these two in New York has been 184 points, and with an average total of 175.8 points per game in the last four games between these two in New York, we have plenty of wiggle room before this game threatens the 190 point barrier... with that in mind, we're making a pretty solid play on the Under...
FINAL PREDICTION: NEW YORK 93, WASHINGTON 87
Philadelphia @ LA Lakers 3:35 PM EST
Philadelphia +7 over LA Lakers (4 Units)
The white-hot Philadelphia 76ers are looking more and more like the team that reached the NA Finals two seasons ago, and perhaps one of their best tests will come this afternoon when they face off against the team that ended their playoff run, the similarly hot Los Angeles Lakers... since the All-Star break, the Sixers have metamorphisized into a seamless unit, rattling off eleven wins in twelve games, and knocking off six of their last seven opponents on the road... while Philly has been aided by some patsies along the way, they have also registered some convincing road wins over the likes of New Jersey, Portland, and Seattle... and with a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS record as a road dog in their last eight contests, the Lakers better watch their backs or they will be Philly's next victim...
Philly's road prowess has been occurring for quite some time now, as the Sixers have actually won ten of their last twelve road games straight up... and while the Lakers have won seven straight home games themselves, we feel that seven points is just too many for them to be laying to Allen Iverson and company... for while LA's run has certainly been impressive in its own right, the fact remains that LA has allowed at least 95 points to five of their last six opponents, while Philly has hammered home at least 99 points in eight of their last nine games, and have only allowed an opponent to score 100 more when on the road just five times all season, including just once in their last twelve road games... over those twelve games, Philly opponents are averaging just 88.2 ppg, a pretty large differential between points allowed and scored to envision betting against the 76ers as a heavy dog...
In the last four games between these two in LA, the Lakers have been held to 101 points or less, and an average of 95.5 ppg... the big issue for the 76ers in failing to win more than one of those games SU was an offense that was held to 89 points or less in three of those four occasions... nonetheless, the Sixers still were able to cover two of their three contests in LA since the 2001 NBA Finals, while losing the other contest by just six points... and with an offense that is much more potent than the days of AI and a bunch of rebounders, we see the 76ers matching the Lakers punch for punch in this contest, as not only as Eric Snow increased as an offensive player, but Keith Van Horn and Derrick Coleman add a dimension on offense that LA hasn't seen from the 76ers in the past...
Finally, do not underestimate the effect of Tyronne Lue's defection to the Wizards... if you might recall, Lue was the only defender on the Lakers capable of slowing down Allen Iverson during the 2001 Finals... Derek Fisher was repeatedly torched by the cornrowed wonder, and Coach Phil Jackson only has Brian Shaw, Kobe Bryant, and Kareem Rush as backup options to defend Iverson - none of whom we see capable of getting the job done, and certainly not against a player who is playing the best basketball of his career...
All in all, we see a Philadelphia team that may not pull off the outright upset, but should have more than enough firepower to keep this game close throughout... and while Shaq will certainly get his share of points against Derrick Coleman, Tyrone Hill, Brian Skinner, and anyone else the Sixers can throw out there, Kobe Bryant will continue to find life difficult being guarded by Eric Snow... the end result should be an incredibly exciting game that regardless of the final outcome, should be decided by no more than six points either way...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA 104, LA LAKERS 100
Memphis @ Toronto 6:05 PM EST
Memphis +5 over Toronto (3.5 Units)
Right now, we don't trust the Raptors laying this many points to anyone... after all, this is a Toronto team that has seen five of their last six home games decided by five points or less, and is a horrendous 1-9 ATS at home after a SU win, with their only ATS win coming against the moribund LA Clippers...
Now the Raptors get to face a Memphis squad that is a whopping 11-2 ATS since the All-Star break and is coming off two consecutive double-digit wins over lower-level opposition... in facing non-Texas teams, the Grizzlies have covered all ten of their games since the break, and have gone a whopping 7-3 SU, with each of the three losses coming by four points or less... and with a 5-0 ATS mark on the road against Eastern Conference competition, including covering efforts against the Sixers, Celtics, Hornets, and Bucks, the Grizzlies look primed to make life difficult for Vince Carter and the Raptors...
The Grizzlies have performed exceptionally well following a SU win, compiling a 9-2 ATS mark in their subsequent game... additionally, Pau Gasol and company are now a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS against teams with losing records since the All-Star break, and are 8-1 ATS as a single-digit dog since the All-Star break (and 17-7 ATS as a dog in general in their last 24 games)...
While much has been made about the Grizzlies' ineffectiveness with no rest, they are actually 2-3 ATS in their last five backend games, while the Raptors are just 1-6 ATS with two days of rest on their side... but perhaps the most important factor in this contest is that in addition to Toronto playing most of their games close to the vest, the Raptors have also seen each of their last three contests against Memphis decided by five points or less... Overall, Memphis has covered five of the last seven contests between these teams, and each of their last three visits to the Air Canada Centre... look for the improving Grizzlies to extend that streak to four straight games as they upend the Raptors to improve their woeful road record to a deceptive 6-25, with their third road win in seven games since the start of the second half of the season...
FINAL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS 97, TORONTO 95
Denver @ Orlando 6:05 PM EST
Orlando/Denver Over 188.5 (2.5 Units)
One day after picking up their fourteenth win of the season, the level of difficulty rises for the Denver Nuggets as they head to Orlando to take on the Magic, who are a very impressive 7-2 SU in their last nine games, with their only losses coming to the New York Knicks... rather than focus on the pointspread in this game, which has been set at 12.5 points, we see the real value coming in the total, which we feel is set much too low for these squads...
Whenever these two teams meet up in Orlando, the points seem to come fast and furiously, as the Magic and Nuggets have combined for at least 196 points in three consecutive games, and an average of 213 ppg in those contests, with the Nuggets scoring at least 93 points in each of those contests, and the Magic being held to no less than 103 points in each of their last four home games against the Nugs...
We have a hard time envisioning things being much different this go-round, as the Magic have scored at least 97 points in eleven consecutive games, with an average total of 106.3 ppg in their last seven contests... with Orlando allowing at least 93 points to each of their last five opponents at home, the window is wide open for Denver to achieve offensive success similar to their 98 points in last night's win over the Heat... and with Denver allowing at least 92 points to each of their last eight opponents (including an average of 95.1 ppg), the high-flying Magic should have little trouble maintaining their 110 ppg home average against the Nuggets since 1997...
Defense was once the trademark of the Nuggets, but as the losses have increased and the games have become more meaningless, Denver has become unhinged on the road, allowing 101.2 ppg in their last nine road games, and a whopping 107 ppg in their last six road games against playoff hopefuls... additionally, the Over is 9-2-1 in Denver games versus teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, with their only two Unders coming against the San Antonio Spurs... with Orlando holding the seventh seed in the Eastern conference, and on the upswing after their big trade with the Grizzlies, the Magic look like a team that is primed for a playoff run... and with past history and current individual performances pointing towards a high-scoring contest, we're happy to make a play on the Over in this contest...
FINAL PREDICTION: ORLANDO 107, DENVER 92
Golden State @ Detroit 6:00 PM EST
Golden State +8 over Detroit (2 Units)
Golden State/Detroit Over 191 (2 Units)
These are obviously not the same Golden State Warriors that the Detroit Pistons are used to facing... years of mediocrity have been replaced with a team that scores at will, averaging well over 100 points per game... and with the Warriors having scored at least 92 points per game in each of their last eighteen contests, the Pistons are faced with an interesting proposition... not only has Detroit lost each of their last eight games where they allowed 90+ points both SU and ATS, they are a pathetic 6-25 ATS as a home favorite when allowing the opposition to register 90 points or more in a contest...
The Pistons have certainly enjoyed life when the Warriors have come to town in the past, scoring 101+ points in each of their last five home tilts against the Warriors... however, this is a Detroit team that has failed to score more than 98 points since the first of February, so obviously their ability to cover a heavy spread is jeppardized unless they can control the Warriors on defense, a feat that few teams have been able to accomplish as of late...
The dilemna is obvious - we have a Pistons team that has owned the Warriors in the past, but we have an entirely different Golden State squad than in the past, a team capable of matching the firepower of basically any team in the league... already, the Warriors have started to turn the corner against the Pistons, covering each of the last three matchups between these two, while scoring at least 92 points and an average of 98.6 ppg in those contests...
Our solution is a simple one - rather than avoid a play in this contest, we will maximze our chance at profit while minimizing our risk by placing equal wagers upon both the Warriors and the Over... assuming that Golden State scores at least 92 points in this contest, we should win at least one of these sides, as even if Detroit is able to cover this contest, the final score will sail well over the posted total of 191 points... each of the last three contests between these two in Detroit has hit the 191 point plateau, and the average total score has been a whopping 211.3 ppg... in a best case scenario, we should be able to nail both sides with a Golden State cover and a final score that soars into the 200's... in a risk that shouldn't cost us more than .2 Units in juice, we will happily take our shot at a 4-unit profit with this equal split of wagers... take the Warriors and the Over, as this looks to be a contest where "middling" the action could pay massive dividends...
FINAL PREDICTION: DETROIT 107, GOLDEN STATE 103
THANKS FOR LOOKING AND GOOD LUCK!
Nice write-ups. Thanks for posting.....