Atlanta @ Memphis 4:05 PM EST
Memphis -5 over Atlanta (4 Units)
Memphis/Atlanta Over 204.5 (1 Unit)
Two surprisingly hot teams meet up this afternoon, as the Hawks take their 5-1 SU mark in their past six games into Memphis to face the red-hot Grizzlies, who have now won their last five games both SU and ATS... While Atlanta's success has been more of a recent thing (and mainly a recent thing at home), the Grizzlies have been downright amazing as of late... helped by their winning streak, Memphis has now gone an impressive 10-6 straight up in their sixteen games since the all-star break, and have compiled an awe-inspiring 14-2 ATS mark in those contests... take away two contests against teams from the state of Texas, and the Grizzlies are a perfect 14-0 ATS since taking the short mid-season breather...
Perhaps what has been most impressive about Memphis' ascent from mediocrity has been their performance at home... in going 8-0 ATS at home, the Grizzlies have shown not only an ability to compete with the best in the league, but they have also been able to put together four straight double-digit victories against the likes of Chicago, Denver, Miami and Utah... the linesmakers have started to adjust to the Grizzlies, installing them as a favorite in four of their last eight games... but methodically, Memphis has dispatched all four teams with ease, winning by a minimum of ten points per game, and an average of fifteen points per contest...
Despite it rarely occurring in the past, the Grizzlies have been exceptional when given some respect, going a perfect 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS when favored by more than three points over the past few seasons... extend back even a bit further, and Memphis has compiled a 14-4 ATS mark as a favorite of 3+ points... say what you will about the Grizzlies, but they get the job done against inferior competition... and with a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS mark in their last six games against teams at .500 or below, and with a 12-2 ATS mark following a SU win, Memphis looks to be a solid play yet again tonight...
Going back to the Hawks, while they have enjoyed playing at home, they are still not a very good team when it comes to being on the road... despite defeating Cleveland, Chicago, and the Clippers on the road in the past month, the Hawks are still a horrid 7-26 SU on the road, with a pathetic 11-22 ATS mark on the season... and while the Grizzlies have methodically dispatched the competition as a favorite, the Hawks have proven unable to succeed as a road dog, going just 5-18 ATS as a road dog of eight points or less... when you rely on beating teams such as Cleveland, Chicago, Denver, and the Clippers in order to win on the road, you are going to find yourself in trouble when facing teams that are on a higher level and can play consistently... and while the Grizzlies have been renowned as a basement level team for several years, it's time to remove that label from Pau Gasol and company, and recognize them for what ther truly are - a team that is just a season away from competing for the playoffs... Memphis gets it done with a double-digit victory yet again...
FINAL PREDICTION: MEMPHIS 110, ATLANTA 99
Phoenix @ Houston 8:35 PM EST
Phoenix +4.5 over Houston (4 Units)
When two teams have a history of playing one another closely, it's always important to take into consideration how many points the underdog is receiving... in the case of the Phoenix Suns tonight, they are getting 4.5 points from the Rockets, and the fact that the line is that high is a very key component of why we like them so much...
While the Rockets have been a pretty solid home favorite in general, they have had immense difficulty covering the spread against Western Conference opponents, going 4-8-1 ATS when favored at home against the Western Conference this season, continuing a horrid 5-12-1 ATS mark as such since the tail-end of last season... overall, Houston is just 5-10 ATS in their last fifteen home games against the West, and a horrendous 3-12-1 ATS in their last sixteen games as a home fav of three or more against their own conference...
The Rockets may be coming off a 121-91 victory over the Bulls, but Steve Francis and company have had a tough time maintaining success after a blowout win, going just 2-6 ATS in their last eight follow-up contests... and while Houston has achieved three consecutive home wins, it's pretty easy to do that when the three teams you face (Chicago, Clips, New Jersey) have all been a downright disaster away from home... The Phoenix Suns, while just 11-21 on the road this season, have the tendency to play their opponents tightly on the road, as evidenced by their amazing mark as an underdog this season...
In their last thirteen games as a road dog of four points or more, the Suns have responded with an exceptional 11-1-1 ATS mark... and amazingly enough, while Phoenix is just 3-4 SU in their last seven road games, three of those four losses have come by three points or less, meaning that Phoenix would be a whopping 6-1 ATS against tonight's spread over their last seven road games...
The road team in this series has actually covered NINE straight contests, with the Suns going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Houston, including three straight up wins... despite who has won or lost in these games, however, you'll notice that almost every contest between these teams goes down to the wire... and with the underdog 8-1 ATS in the last nine games between these two (with the sole loss coming by a half point), and the road team undefeated ATS in those contests, the Suns are looking like a very solid bet to cover this number...
FINAL PREDICTION: PHOENIX 99, HOUSTON 95
Toronto @ LA Clippers 9:05 PM EST
Toronto +3 over LA Clippers (3.5 Units)
Toronto/LA Clippers Over 191 (2 Units)
Here we go again... once more, the Clippers have been installed as a favorite, despite the fact that the words Clippers and favorite should never be used in the same sentence... while the Clips are your team as a huge underdog, when it comes to actually WINNING games, the Clippers have only put together eight victorious efforts in their last 37 games... the end result of this performance is a team that can cover the spread solidly as an underdog, but is absolutely pathetic when installed as a favorite, no matter who the competition...
After yet another SU loss as a favorite (this time by allowing the Hawks to pick up one of their few road wins this season), the Clippers have continued a streak where they have gone just 5-21-1 ATS when favored over the opposition, with SU losses to the likes of Atlanta, Cleveland, Denver, and Washington (without Stackhouse) in the mix... while Toronto has been struggling a little bit as of late, they certainly have the capabilities of the last four teams we mentioned... and even with this 0-3 road trip turning into a disaster after blowout losses to Portland and Sacramento, the Raptors have still been an exceptional underdog, as they are 10-6 ATS as an underdog of more than two points, and are 7-2 ATS as a road dog versus losing teams...
While the Clippers are horrendous as a favorite, the numbers actually extend even further than that, as the Clips are an abysmal 1-14 SU/ATS record in their last fifteen games where the line is four points or less either way... while the Raptors might not be playing exceptional ball right now, there is no way that the Clippers should be favored here, as LA needs to first learn how to win a little bit before being shown this type of respect... take the Raptors to come into town and salvage at least one game on their Western road swing...
FINAL PREDICTION: TORONTO 107, LA CLIPPERS 100
Portland @ Minnesota 3:35 PM EST
Portland +3 over Minnesota (2.5 Units)
Dallas @ Sacramento 3:35 PM EST
Sacramento -4.5 over Dallas (2.5 Units)
Chicago @ San Antonio 7:05 PM EST
San Antonio -13 over Chicago (1 Unit)
San Antonio/Chicago Over 194 (2.5 Units)
Seattle @ Denver 9:05 PM EST
Denver +4 over Seattle (1.5 Units)
Milwaukee @ New York 7:05 PM EST
Milwaukee +4 over New York (1 Unit)