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Superbowl breakdown by EVERETT STARLING

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By EVERETT STARLING
SportsLine

Longtime Bucs fans with memories of John McKay fresh in their heads and old, bright Bucs attire hidden in their closets remember when this day never seemed possible.

Raiders fans who have seen many teams full of promise come and go without smelling success since the Raider Nation's last Super Bowl championship probably can't believe it took this long to get here.

A year removed from leading the Raiders to the AFC title game, Jon Gruden is facing them in the Super Bowl.

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But here we stand after months of minicamp, two-a-days, a 17-week regular season and draining playoffs.

And left standing are the Raiders, who haven't been to the big game since they won Super Bowl XVIII, and the Buccaneers, who paid $8 million and four high draft picks to pry coach Jon Gruden away from Oakland following last season.

But in the end it is all about playing football, the way it should be, as the NFL's top defense goes against its top offense.

Will the Bucs seize the day for "Chucky" and thwart legendary Raiders owner Al Davis and his collection of aged veterans to win their first Super Bowl? Or will the Raider Nation ride roughshod in San Diego?

Raiders Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense

Rich Gannon

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Right to the matchup everyone wants to see. Will the vaunted Bucs defense be able to shut down league MVP Rich Gannon and his talented receiving triumvirate of Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter? Gannon, even with his sometimes three-quarter or full sidearm throwing style, doesn't make mistakes. His ability to audible in any situation has paid huge dividends for Oakland this season. But the Bucs certainly have the speed to be disruptive. It starts at the corners with All-Pro CB Ronde Barber and matriculates throughout a unit led by NFL defensive player of the year Derrick Brooks and safety John Lynch. It continues up front with edge rusher Simeon Rice (15.5 sacks) and Warren Sapp (7.5 sacks), forced to be more adept run-stuffers with the season-ending injury to Anthony McFarland. In a battle of big bodies, and even bigger mouths, keep an eye on the matchup between Sapp and an ex-Tampa Bay teammate, OG Frank Middleton. Middleton has plenty of quality company with guys like Barrett Robbins and Lincoln Kennedy, who can also talk as well as they play. Between versatile yet small Charlie Garner and a bruising, finally healthy Tyrone Wheatley , the Oakland running game might figure in this more than you think. The Bucs have the speed and talent to put the pressure on Gannon and actually get him, not just flush him out of the pocket. But such speed could be a weakness if the Raiders load up the running game.
Advantage: Raiders

Buccaneers Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Brad Johnson

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You figure as good as they are, the Raiders' offense will score some vs. the Bucs. So the X-factor becomes the other matchup. Can the revamped Oakland defense negate the Bucs, led by the NFC's top-rated passer in Brad Johnson? The last eight games Johnson has played, the Bucs have averaged 27.1 points. In the playoffs, they're averaging 29.0 points. Joe Jurevicius' 71-yard catch and run vs. Philly jump-started a Bucs offense that converted some believers last week at the Vet. Sure, wideouts Keyshawn Johnson and Keenan McCardell and tight end Ken Dilger are a little long in the tooth and aren't track stars, but they're definitely more dangerous than the corps of Tennessee receivers Oakland struggled with in the AFC title game. Charles Woodson, Tory James, Rod Woodson and hard-hitting Anthony Dorsett will stay busy, whether it's shadowing Keyshawn's cohorts or lending run support to Eric Barton and the seemingly ageless Bill Romanowski. The most complimentary thing to say about the Tampa Bay running game is that it serves as a momentary diversion for defenses. Though not a true running back or fullback, Mike Alstott's size and versatility allow the Bucs to offer some different looks, though the yards-per-carry averages for Alstott (3.8) and tailback Michael Pittman (3.5) aren't awe-inspiring. Alstott is hard to bring down, but he also takes a lot of hits and can be prone to coughing up the ball. The Bucs offensive line, porous most of the year, is peaking at the right time.
Advantage: Buccaneers

Special Teams

Sebastian Janikowski

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Sebastian Janikowski led AFC kickers in points with 128, including 26 of 33 field goals and all 50 PAT attempts. While Janikowski made both attempts of 50 yards or more, he was only 7-of-12 from 40-49. However, the long-footed Janikowski led the NFL with 22 touchbacks. Punter Shane Lechler's gross average of 42.5 yards per kick was ninth best in the NFL. The Raiders returned three kicks (one kickoff, two punts) for TDs this year, but that was with Phillip Buchanon and Terry Kirby, both now out for the season. The Bucs' Martin Gramatica has proved adept again at field goals, connecting on 32 of 39 attempts. He made 5-of-6 from 50+ yards, but was a spotty 4-of-10 between 40 and 49 yards. He's not the kickoff threat Janikowski is, as only six of his kickoffs went for touchbacks. Punter Tom Tupa has been invaluable to the Bucs' field-position battles. He has a better gross (42.8) than Lechler, has 12 touchbacks and of his 90 punts, 30 ended up inside the opponent's 20. Aaron Stecker handles kick-return duties, averaging 25.2 yards per return, while Karl Williams did return one punt for a TD while averaging 9.5 yards per return this season.
Advantage: Raiders

Coaching

Bill Callahan

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More barrels of good ink have probably been wasted this week than they have the rest of the weeks of the playoffs combined analyzing these two staffs. Of course, the storylines are downright compelling, with the charismatic Gruden coaching against a team he bolted, or which essentially forced him to look elsewhere, depending on who you ask. Left in his wake is Bill Callahan, who with his aggressive philosophies and low-key public persona, is essentially the anti-Gruden. He and offensive coordinator Marc Trestman took the reins off Gannon, allowing the Raiders to be more prolific than they ever were a year ago. Bucs defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin doesn't just have great athletes playing in a simple scheme. He is one of the best at making adjustments on the fly.
Advantage: Even

Prediction

Al Davis

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Two years ago, who would have thought the Raiders would make it to the Super Bowl and Gruden wouldn't be coaching the team? Or that Tony Dungy wouldn't be captaining the Pirate ship as the Bucs finally sailed to glory? Well, back to reality, and that's exactly the way it is. The Raiders, complete with the jurassic cast assembled for one more run at the title, have an offense unlike any other in recent memory. And it's more dominant now than it ever was under Gruden. Dungy is long gone, but his defensive blueprint is all over the Bucs. Gruden's system has slowly made inroads in upgrading the team's offensive output, but it won't be enough if the Raiders manhandle the Bucs defense the way they're capable of doing. Paul Tagliabue isn't going to like presenting the Vince Lombardi Trophy to NFL rebel Davis.
Final Score: Raiders 20, Buccaneers 13

 
Posted : January 24, 2003 5:48 pm
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