Tampa Bay @ New Orleans 8:30 PM EST
Tampa Bay -1.5 over New Orleans (3.5 Units)
In a contest that should shape the NFC South race for the remainder of the season, the Tampa Bay Buccanneers head into the Big Easy to take on a Saints team that is suddenly struggling... and the worst remedy for a struggling offense is a prescription to face Warren Sapp and the Tampa Bay defense, as Aaron Brooks and the Saints are likely to find out this evening...
Defensively, Tampa Bay is never more successful than when they are installed as a road favorite... in their last 20 games as such, the Bucs are allowing an average of under 12 points per game, and have not allowed more than 21 points in any of those occassions.... Despite a poor overall ATS mark as a road favorite, the Bucs are still 8-3 SU in their last 11 games as such... and with the line in this game dropped to little more than a single point, we feel their odds of covering this contest are very strong... The Bucs have allowed just 42 points in their last five road games, and against a Saints team that has allowed 20+ points in every game this season, including 23+ in their last nine games (including contests against the Panthers, Lions, and Bears), we have little reason to believe the Bucs won't score enough points to make this game easier on their defense...
Normally we might be concerned about Tampa's ability to shut down the Saints, as they had trouble in the last matchup between the two, and also allowed 20 points to the Eagles, a team that was very similar offensively with McNabb in the lineup... however, the Saints have are sputtering on offense at the wrong time, having scored just 32 points in their last two games combined after scoring that many in each of their five previous games...
Tampa Bay has gone an amazing 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less, including a perfect 5-0 in their last five opportunities as a small favorite... and with the Bucs not having to deal with the elements in this game (obviously we all know Tampa Bay's awful mark in the cold, but this contest takes place in a nicely heated dome), we expect the Bucs to be able to slow down the Saints enough to win and cover this contest... take the Bucs in what should be a very entertaining game...
FINAL PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY 24, NEW ORLEANS 17