Mississippi St. +2.5
The Bulldogs come in 1-1 with a loss at Oregon and a win last week vs. Jacksonville St. In their opener, QB Kevin Fant was suspended for the game and Oregon took advantage and put the game away early. The Ducks played from a short field most of the day, mainly due to turnovers. Oregon’s scoring drives were 80, 38, 61, 37, 47, 2 and 36 yards and three of those ended up being field goals. Mississippi St. was also only 3-13 on third down. With Fant in the lineup, the offense runs much better as witnessed by late last year when he took over the starting job. He jumpstarted a lifeless offense in the final two games of the season vs. Mississippi and BYU by going 34-49 for 609 yards with 4 Td’s and 1 INT. They got the win vs. archrival Mississippi and came within 3 points of then undefeated BYU. Against Jacksonville St. on Saturday, Fant made his 2002 debut and went 15-26 for 336 yards and 3 TD’s. His QB rating in these 3 games is 201.93. It was a good tune up for him and the offense as a confidence boost before SEC action began. The defense, which has perennially been a stronghold for the Bulldogs, fell off last year ranking 64th in points allowed and 58th in total yards, mostly due to youth and inexperience. The defense, which is led by coordinator Joe Lee Dunn, usually runs a 5-1-5 scheme but will mix it up and will try to keep the offense off-balance. Their main threat is RB Carnell Williams, who is averaging 110 yards per game this year. USC did a good job two weeks ago making adjustments and holding Williams to –2 yards in the second half. The Trojans put more players up near the line of scrimmage and forced the Tigers to beat the Trojans with the passing game; something Auburn was unable to do. Look for the Bulldogs to do something similar and try to make Cobb beat them. Cobb can expect tons of pressure as Dunn will mix it up and try to keep the QB off-balance. The defense often takes chances, opening up the possibility of the big play on both sides of the ball and Cobb has yet to prove he can execute in these situations. Starkville is always a tough place for visitors; the Bulldogs are 25-7 at Scott Field over the past 5 plus years, with four of those losses coming last year. Mississippi St. is also 7-2 in Thursday night games on ESPN (not that it really has much bearing on this year, but interesting nonetheless).