Minnesota –3.5
The Gophers come back home after a disappointing 28-15 loss at Purdue on Saturday. The defense gave Minnesota the opportunity to win, holding the Boilermakers to only 266 yards after the Boilermakers opened the game with a 77-yard, 13-play touchdown drive. The offense could not get anything going however as Asad Abdul-Khaliq (probable tonight) only completed 16 of 48 passes, a lot in which were dropped and simply overthrown. Abdul-Khaliq came in as the nations leader in passing efficiency, but dropped down to 22nd after Saturday’s performance. In all, the offense is ranked 23rd in the country with over 427 yards per game. They will be facing an Illinois defense ranked 94th in the country, giving up over 410 ypg. They are equally poor in both stopping the pass and the run, giving up 239 ypg and 171 ypg respectively. Minnesota is averaging 4.9 ypc, good for 15th in the country. They couldn’t get the run going last week against Purdue and in turn, this hurt the passing of Abdul-Khaliq. They only averaged 2.4 ypc against the Boilermakers, who rank 30th in ypc defense, but the Gophers now get Illinois, who are 70th at 3.9 ypc. This should free up Abdul-Khaliq to either run himself when flushed out of the pocket or give him good opportunities for the big play down field. He has had 14 plays of 35 or more yards in his past seven games and Illinois has yet to get an interception this year. Illinois comes in with the 5th ranked offense in the country but they have been hurt by turnovers, 13 through their first five games. Their turnover ratio of –1.8 is 107th in the country. QB Jon Beutjer will make his first start on the road since taking over the starting job from Dustin Ward. He has thrown 5 interceptions in the last two games, both losses at home, and he will be going up against the Gopher defense that ranks 12th against the pass and 8th overall in the country. Number one priority is to not let Brandon Lloyd beat them deep, which he did twice last year. With a 1-4 start, the season is not what the Illini had forecasted and coming off two tough losses at home with a short week to prepare might be too much to ask. Expect the Gophers to rebound from last week and contain the good offense from Illinois, while moving the ball more effectively than they did against Purdue.