SELECTION: FRESNO STATE -16½ over San Diego State
A couple of California schools tangle in Fresno as the Bulldogs host San Diego State. Fresno State fans might get to see Jeff Grady-to-Bernard Berrian touchdowns in the home opener after all, thanks to some encouraging MRI scans. WR Berrian's right knee sprain is less serious than first suspected, while QB Grady has a bruised right hip that is more sore than anything else. Both suffered their injuries in last Friday's season-opening 23-21 loss at Wisconsin. Running back Therrian Fontenot did not play in the game and would be a most welcome addition to the backfield this week.
San Diego State's 15-game winning streak against current members of the WAC will be put to a severe test as the Aztecs are in the beginning stages of a re-building phase with new head coach Tom Craft. Even he has said "We're not focusing on a winning season as much as laying a foundation." We certainly have our doubts about Craft as he initially declined the job saying he was not 100% committed to it. Two days later he changed his mind and was hired. As if that wasn't enough to give the players doubts about the program, it has been learned that the school is under investigation by the NCAA for potential out-of-season practice violations. Craft promises a more wide-open offense but it will take his players time to learn new schemes and they are without their most productive player from last year in running back Larry Ned, who's in his rookies NFL season. Craft's biggest task will be developing a quarterback as Lon Sheriff and Adam Hall showed no improvement over the course of last season. The going will be tough in Fresno.
The Bulldogs have the advantages of having played a game and the chance to work on weaknesses exposed in the Wisconsin game. Head coach Pat Hill will have no problem motivating his squad here as his team is off a loss, playing in their home opener, and going up against another Golden State squad. All of those situations spell trouble for the opposition as FSU is 15-7 ATS off a SU loss (4-1 ATS at home off a SU road defeat), 4-0 ATS in the last 5 years off a SU loss/ATS win, 10-3 ATS in lined home openers, and 5-1 ATS vs. fellow California schools; the latter a result of Hill's aggressive style and desire to get in-state recruits. Other trends also weigh heavily in Fresno's favor: the Bulldogs are now 12-4 ATS vs. non-conference teams, 6-2 ATS as a 10-19 point favorite, and 45-15 ATS in their last 60 SU wins. The Aztecs are a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 SU losses, creating a powerful trend dichotomy. The Bulldogs will take out their frustrations on San Diego State.
FINAL SCORE: FRESNO STATE 34 SAN DIEGO STATE 13
nice write up 