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LA Lakers @ Boston 7:35 PM EST
LA Lakers +3.5 over Boston (3 Units)
The Celtics return home feeling good about themselves after two straight convincing wins over the Wizards and Bulls on the road, but this looks to be a prime spot for a letdown for Boston... whenever the Celts have returned home from two or more consecutive road games, they have flopped miserably, going just 6-20 ATS... that record looks even worse when you consider that two of those covering efforts came by just a half point as underdogs... as a favorite against a Lakers squad coming off a pathetic effort against the Cleveland Cavaliers, their chances of covering are even worse...
When installed as a single-digit favorite after a road trip of 2+ games, Boston is just 3-13 ATS... and the fact that Boston won last night's game so convincingly looks to work against them, as they are just 1-7 ATS after a win of more than 20 points...
The Lakers are just 2-3 on the season, losing their three games against teams with dominant big men (Tim Duncan, Rasheed Wallace, Zydrunas Ilgauskas)... against the Celtics, who have no strong inside game to speak of, the loss of Shaquille O'Neal should not come into play as much... and with the knowledge that Rick Fox is due to return the next night from suspension, we expect a big game from Kobe Bryant and company to try and even their record on the season...
Over the past several seasons, the Lakers have thrived in the role of a road dog, compiling an 18-6 ATS record... the road team in this series is 7-1-1 ATS, with the Lakers going 3-1 SU/ATS in Boston... with a Boston team showing too much confidence, and a Lakers team with something to prove, we'll take the points and side with Los Angeles here...
FINAL PREDICTION: LA LAKERS 96, BOSTON 90
Milwaukee @ Minnesota 8:05 PM EST
Minnesota -165 over Milwaukee (3.5 Units)
Minnesota/Milwaukee Under 186.5 (2.5 Units)
We're going to put forth a rare moneyline play in the NBA, as the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Milwaukee Bucks one night after the Bucks handed New Jersey their first loss of the season... the reasons we like the Wolves are simple, but there's something about this line that worries us a bit, as Minnesota could easily win the game but have Milwaukee sneak in for the cover... so rather than take that risk, we will go with the surer play of Minnesota -165 on the moneyline...
Minnesota has won each of their three home games this year, continuing their longtime strength of winning at home... and considering that Minnesota has now won six straight games both SU and ATS against the Bucks, we certainly know that Minnesota knows how to handle this Milwaukee team... The Bucks must be feeling pretty good about themselves after knocking off the Nets last night, but reality should smack them in the face as they play away from home... amazingly enough, the Bucks are just 1-13 SU in their last 14 road games, and when playing on the road after a SU win, they have failed to cover any of their last five contests... Even success as a dog (whether they achieve the SU win or not) has not meant much in the following game for the Bucks, as Milwaukee is just 2-7 ATS in their next game...
In the second of back-to-back games where Milwaukee is away from home, the Bucks have lost four straight games by 9+ points each, including losses of 34 and 26 in their last two games... and in their last nine road games against Western Conference teams, George Karl's bunch has folded, going just 2-7 ATS...
Milwaukee has failed to score more than 96 points in any of their last seven games against the Timberwolves, including each of their last four trips to Minnesota... and when the Bucks score less than 100 points on the road, they are toast, going just 12-33-1 ATS in their last 36 games, a cover rate of just 26 percent... Obviously, Minnesota SHOULD win and cover this game... however, with this Minnesota team not nearly as strong as seasons past, we worry about their ability to cover a 5.5 point spread, especially since this Milwaukee edition is actually playing some defense, having not allowed a single opponent this year to score more than 100 points... Therefore, we will take Minnesota on the moneyline to get the straight up win in a low-scoring contest... The Under is already 6-1 in the series between these two teams, and 4-0 in Milwaukee's last four visits to Minnesota... therefore, take the Wolves and the Under.
FINAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 92, MILWAUKEE 87
Detroit @ Denver 10:05 PM EST
Denver +5 over Detroit (3.5 Units)
Denver/Detroit Under 170 (4 Units)
The Detroit Pistons have been one of our favorite teams this year, as we usually know exactly what to expect from them... almost without fail, we're talking severely low-scoring games with plenty of defense and scores that always end in the 70's or 80's... so far this season, the Pistons have come through with flying colors, holding their last ten opponents (including preseason to 86 points or less per game, and 82 points or less in six preseason and regular season road games...
In fact, in all but two games since the start of the preseason, the Pistons have scored 86 points or less while allowing 86 points or less themselves... on the road, the consistency has been even stronger, as Detroit has allowed between 69 and 82 points (average of 75.5 ppg) while scoring between 72 and 84 points themselves (average of 80 ppg)... take the worst offensive and defensive performances by the Pistons during that time and add them up, and we still fall short of tonight's total of 170... Obviously, a strong look at the Under is recommended here, a look that becomes exceptionally strong when you consider that the Under is 13-0 in Denver games where their opponent is playing their third straight road game and are playing on zero rest...
There are other Under trends at play in this contest as well... not only in the Under 14-3 in Nuggets games when their opponent is playing the second of back-to-back road games, but the Under is also a perfect 6-0 when Detroit is coming off a road game against the Utah Jazz... Denver has been playing some good defense themselves, allowing just one opponent this season to score more than 83 points, and with the knowledge that they can stay close in this game until the final minutes, we expect the Nuggets to slow the ball down and play a meticulous game with the hope of stealing this one late...
The Pistons are actually playing in their fourth straight road game, and thus far, each of the last three have been decided by a single bucket... In their last seven road games overall, Detroit has won just twice, and both of those games have been by just two points... And since last year's playoffs began, the Pistons have averaged just 79 points per game on the road, making any play on them as a favorite a risky one, especially where more than two points are being laid...
Denver has had the opportunity to rest up and prepare for the Pistons, and considering that they are 5-0 ATS at home with at least one days rest vs an unrested team, they should have a terrific chance of at least staying within this line... Detroit actually still has one more road game after this one, and it's against the undefeated Dallas Mavericks, so this game against the Nuggets certainly qualifies as a look-ahead contest... throw in the fact that the Pistons are a miserable 0-11 ATS since 3/7/96 when their next game is against Dallas, and we're looking at yet another game that comes down to a final bucket... either way it falls, we like the Nuggets and the Under for a terrific double play...
FINAL PREDICTION: DENVER 79, DETROIT 77