1/30 NBA:
Minnesota at Dallas 7:35 PM EST
Dallas -8 over Minnesota (4 Units)
The Dallas Mavericks look to continue their recent return to defensive form when the Minnesota Timberwolves come to town this evening... The Mavs rose to the best record in the NBA early in the season due to a defensive intensity that had been missing in previous seasons... and while that intensity seemed to have lapsed a bit during the Mavs' recent slump, Dallas looks to have returned to form over the past two weeks, allowing just 89.3 ppg in their last six contests, punctuated by a second-half effort last night which saw the Mavs hold Houston to just 28 second-half points...
This improvement on D should serve the Mavs well in tonight's contest against the Timberwolves, as Minnesota has consistently been very forgiving on defense against the Mavs, allowing at least 100 points in eight consecutive games against Dallas, and a whopping average of 112.6 ppg in those contests... and while the Dallas offense has been chugging along much like past seasons, the Wolves seem to have lost a bit on offense as they rely more and more upon Kevin Garnett to carry the ship by himself... and with the team down to just one healthy and reliable point guard in Troy Hudson (with Rod Strickland now on the shelf), the Wolves may find their ability to compete with the Mavs even more limited than last season's playoff matchup, where the Mavs cruised to a 3-1 series victory, winning each of the last two games by double-digit margins while scoring 122 and 115 points respectively...
The Mavs are coming off last night's blowout win over the Rockets, but that is actually a good thing for this team, as they are a whopping 16-5 ATS at home without rest... and the fact that Dallas has scored 100+ points in eight straight games against the Wolves is big as well, for the Mavs are a whopping 15-3 ATS this season when scoring 100+ as a single-digit favorite, including a perfect 7-0 ATS mark at home... toss in an 8-2 ATS mark at home against winning teams (compared against Minnesota's 3-9 ATS road mark against winning teams), and Dallas is in business here...
The Timberwolves have won six straight games overall, including two straight on the road, but we haven't been exceptionally impressed with the caliber of teams the Wolves have beaten on the road this season outside of the Portland Trailblazers, and their road performances against winning teams who play defense this season has been less than adequate... the Wolves have averaged just 81 ppg in road contests against the likes of Houston, Detroit, Sacramento, San Antonio, New Jersey and Indiana... and as strange as it is to say, the fact that Dallas allows just 88.6 ppg at home this season certainly qualifies them with the above teams...
Minnesota is a horrendous 4-15 ATS after scoring 100+ points in a contest - after beating the Spurs 106-95, this is a trend that may very well come back and bite them in the backside... add in the fact that Minnesota is just 2-9 ATS off back-to-back wins, and we have more than enough rationale to back the Mavs here... lay the points and enjoy a double-digit Dallas victory...
FINAL PREDICTION: DALLAS 107, MINNESOTA 93
Washington @ Milwaukee 8:05 PM EST
Milwaukee -6 over Washington (3 Units)
Sacramento @ Seattle 10:05 PM EST
Seattle +3 over Sacramento (2.5 Units)
Seattle/Sacramento Under 190.5 (2 Units)
Thanks for looking and good luck!!