Thursday's NCAA Card
March 22, 2007
By Sportsbook.com
Thursday’s “March Madness” schedule is full of the NCAA’s elite. Of the eight teams on the docket, the lowest seed is #5 Tennessee out of the South Region. Even though there is no “Cinderella” on the schedule Thursday, don’t expect the “betting public” to stop pounding the favorites.
With the early money piling in, it isn’t surprising that a very high percentage of the money is on each of the four favorites. 75% of the cash so far is on Texas A&M (-3) as they take on Memphis, 71% of the early bettors prefer Ohio State (-5) versus Tennessee, 60% of the money is on Kansas (-9) against Southern Illinois and 90% of the early bettors are pounding UCLA (-3) as they do battle with Pitt. If these percentages stay this high, don’t be surprised if you see a line change or two by tomorrow.
If you like the favorites, you might be better served getting your bets in early before you are giving even more points. On the flip side, if you like the ‘dogs, you might want to hold out until later to see if you can get an extra ½ point or so. Either way, the best way to gauge a possible line change is to monitor Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. Now on to the games…
West Regional
#4 Southern Illinois vs. #1 Kansas
Both teams have definitely peaked at the right time with S. Illinois having won 15 out of their last 16 straight up (SU) and Kansas having won 13 in a row SU. Southern Illinois has a wicked defense that allows only 56.1 points per game (PPG). Their “D” has been on top of its game in the tournament. In their two games, they yielded a total of 99 points. They will have their hands full as they face a high-powered Kansas squad that averages 79.5 PPG. Over their last three games, the Jayhawks offense has scored 88, 107 and 88 points. What makes KU so tough is that their defense is just as impressive. They hold their opponents to 61.6 PPG on 37.3% shooting from the field. Southern Illinois will definitely have its worked cut out as they are outmanned in just about every aspect. They will definitely need the services of junior forward, Matt Shaw who missed their last game due to an ankle injury. The main advantage Southern Illinois has over Kansas is experience. Of Kansas’ top five scorers, three are sophomores and two are freshman. In fact they do not have a senior on their roster.
#3 Pittsburgh vs. #2 UCLA
This match-up has all of the makings for a low scoring, knock ‘em in the teeth battle. Pitt, coming out of the always physical Big East, held their opponents to 62.8 PPG and 40.7% from the field and 30.8% from three point land. UCLA is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball either. Opponents were only able to average 59.7 PPG versus the Bruins this season. Their two NCAA opponents combined for only 91 points total on 33% shooting. Behind Pac-10 Player of the Year, Arron Afflalo, the Bruins have been as consistent as any team in the country. Center, Lorenzo Mata will have his hands full as he faces off against the mammoth Aaron Gray and his 14 PPG and 9.6 boards. There are a couple of interesting trends to be aware of heading into this game. Since game 15, against good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG, UCLA is just 1-6 ATS. In non-conference games, Pitt has covered the OVER 77% of the time this season and 75% of the time over the last three seasons.
South Regional
#3 Texas A&M vs. #2 Memphis
Memphis has won 24 in a row and has not played in the role of “underdog” since December 20th. Memphis has an impressive offense that averages 79.3 PPG while their defense gives up a respectfully low 62.2 PPG. Texas A&M had an impressive scoring differential between themselves and their opponents this season as well. The Aggies averaged 75.9 PPG while holding their opponents to 59.3 PPG. The Aggies were a very reliable cover this season going 19-10 ATS. Versus teams with a winning record they were 17-7 ATS this season and 40-22 ATS over the last three seasons. Against teams that put 77+ points on the board per game, the Aggies covered 9 out of 11 times. Memphis, on the other hand, wasn’t a very good team to the bettors this season going just 16-17 ATS. They have been very generous in tournament play over the last three years going 22-8 ATS.
#1 Ohio State vs. #5 Tennessee
Despite the overtime scare and non-cover against Xavier last weekend, OSU has been as impressive as any other team this season both SU and ATS. They currently have a 19 game winning streak and have covered 5 out of their last 6 games. Overall the Buckeyes covered 60.6% of their games this season including 5-1 ATS on a neutral court, 5-1 ATS in March, 7-1 ATS in all tournament games, and 17-11 ATS as a favorite. Tennessee was very mediocre ATS this season but there are a few disturbing trends that have occurred over the years regarding the Vols. Since 1997 they are a miserable 12-28 ATS on a neutral court. Worse yet, they are 8-25 ATS during the same time period in tournament games. As witnessed in their first round game, the Vols don’t have a problem putting points on the board as they averaged over 80 PPG this season. It will be interesting if they how their offense will fare against OSU who only gives up 60.4 PPG on 39.8% shooting.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, Sportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.